Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Flip]

I really think the ceiling for legs are right around 5x, so the only way it has a chance at $1B DOM would be an opening right around $200M, which would require excellent walkups 

[Gkalaitza]

I feel its easier to predict a floor for legs given its release date, lack of competition and likely quite good WoM than a ceiling. unless you go very high at idk x6.7 and be safe but that doesnt make it very useful. But despite that i think x5 is  low for a ceiling since i dont see TGM legs as impossible, just quite unlikely

Edited December 13, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

I think it would be best for everyone to hone in your OW expectations between $140-170M ($18-20M previews x 7.5-8.5 IM). Could it potentially be higher than that? It could, sure but at this point though I'd bet hard money it falls in that range. 

 

[Dragoncaine]

I'm revising my MC prediction from 76 to 73, and RT stays flat at 85%. I feel like the comic-book bloggers and a handful of top critics are going to drag it down to Dune range (which is still great, and clearly not impacting its awards prospects).

[tenken]

I am really curious what the tomato-meter rating will be. I have seen a fair amount of reactions criticizing the story and characters. If I had to guess, I would say it lands between 70% and 85%.

Edited December 13, 2022 by tenken

[thajdikt]

19 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

I'm revising my MC prediction from 76 to 73, and RT stays flat at 85%. I feel like the comic-book bloggers and a handful of top critics are going to drag it down to Dune range (which is still great, and clearly not impacting its awards prospects).

Have any of these comic-book bloggers given a negative reaction? Everyone I´ve seen have been pretty positive

[KJsooner]

18 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

I'm revising my MC prediction from 76 to 73, and RT stays flat at 85%. I feel like the comic-book bloggers and a handful of top critics are going to drag it down to Dune range (which is still great, and clearly not impacting its awards prospects).

That’s what I’m thinking. There’s going to be certain portion of film critics who drag this movie through the mud bc of Cameron’s anti-superhero sentiment. I have no interest in this movie whatsoever, so it’s hard for me to remain objective about it. I do hope it succeeds on every level for Cameron fans.

[ThomasNicole]

24 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

I feel like anything under 150M will be seen as a slightly disappointment, even if what's really matter is the weeks after OW.

 

I still think is a bit unlikely to go under that with 18M previews and such strong presales across the weekend, but yeah overall i agreed, the range is smaller now and hopefully people won't treat it as something bad and put the whole weekend thread in a bad mood just because of unrealistic expectations.

[thajdikt]

I feel like Avatar will do well with RT system. Like most people even those that don´t like it praise the visuals. Could be enough to get that red tomato.

[Maggie]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I feel like anything under 150M will be seen as a slightly disappointment, even if what's really matter is the weeks after OW.

 

 

Exactly. Even if the OW numbers aren't the biggest, this is a marathon, not a sprint. Legs will be good imo

[hw64]

33 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

I think it would be best for everyone to hone in your OW expectations between $140-170M ($18-20M previews x 7.5-8.5 IM). Could it potentially be higher than that? It could, sure but at this point though I'd bet hard money it falls in that range. 

 

You also had the re-release at under $10m domestically prior to release, though.

 

I don't think it's necessary, nor is it anyone's place really, to try and lord over people's predictions like this, especially for such a volatile release. There's still plenty of plausible opening weekend range outside of $140-$170m that could easily come to pass. I'm personally sticking at $175-$180m.

[Verrows]

I feel like it's destined to be Rogue One size hit but with better late legs after Christmas. Rogue One opening with a Last Jedi total. Another big Christmastime event at the box office but not the record breaker several here are hoping for.

 

That's domestically speaking though. International on the other hand..... Going to be a massive, once in a blue moon event.

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by Verrows

[Verrows]

3 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

You also had the re-release at under $10m domestically prior to release, though.

 

I don't think it's necessary, nor is it anyone's place really, to try and lord over people's predictions like this, especially for such a volatile release. There's still plenty of plausible opening weekend range outside of $140-$170m that could easily come to pass. I'm personally sticking at $175-$180m.

That poster has been tracking for a long time now though.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

11 minutes ago, hw64 said:

You also had the re-release at under $10m domestically prior to release, though.

 

 

There wasn't 20 people tracking the re-release. 

 

11 minutes ago, hw64 said:

I don't think it's necessary, nor is it anyone's place really, to try and lord over people's predictions like this, especially for such a volatile release. There's still plenty of plausible opening weekend range outside of $140-$170m that could easily come to pass. I'm personally sticking at $175-$180m.

 

You, of all people, complaining about someone else "lording over people's predictions" is a bit laughable. You've knocked other peoples thoughts and expectations left and right when they haven't fit in with yours. Mine is merely a suggestion based on experience. Time is running out for there to be much more volatility in OW, and quite frankly a $30M range is enough room. 

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

You also had the re-release at under $10m domestically prior to release, though.

 

I don't think it's necessary, nor is it anyone's place really, to try and lord over people's predictions like this, especially for such a volatile release. There's still plenty of plausible opening weekend range outside of $140-$170m that could easily come to pass. I'm personally sticking at $175-$180m.

But he's right, things are tightening up this past few days and while i do think M37 read of the data is overly pessimistic to use some of the lower predictions on tracking thread, the data is still suggesting some limitations on how high this can go and everyone agreed on that. 

 

From the lenghty runtime, the limitations of premium screens, the holidays right after the opening.... There's several reasons that could depressing the OW a bit.

[Dragoncaine]

52 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Have any of these comic-book bloggers given a negative reaction? Everyone I´ve seen have been pretty positive

We'll know tomorrow for sure when critic reviews drop at noon EST, but so far, it feels to me like the most tempered reactions have come from CBM bloggers and YouTubers. Not outright pans, mind you, and not making a full generalization, I've just seen critics be more effusive in their praise (with a few derisions from Guardian and Telegraph)

Edited December 13, 2022 by Dragoncaine

[danziger]

 

 

[hw64]

13 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

You, of all people, complaining to someone else about "lording over people's predictions" is a bit laughable. You've knocked other peoples thoughts and expectations left and right when they haven't fit in with yours. Mine is merely a suggestion based on experience. Time is running out for there to be much more volatility in OW, and quite frankly a $30M range is enough room. 

 

I've definitely been critical of some predictions, sure, perhaps even dismissively so on a couple of occasions over the past few days for which I'd apologise to those affected, but there's a big difference between being critical and essentially softly suggesting that everyone molds their predictions to a range that you've deemed to be appropriate.

 

Some humility is needed here. The tracking thread is incredible, but the data is still largely limited to Thursday previews, and it tells us very little about how backloaded the movie is going to be over its opening weekend or how heavy the walk-ups will be. If any movie is likely to behave unusually and break precedent, it is Avatar 2, so it's simply unwise to rely on the idea that Avatar 2 will behave within established parameters in terms of backloading/walk-ups.

[JustLurking]

[Maggie]

Just now, JustLurking said: