Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[JustLurking]

Whether COVID is still around (which it obviously is) doesn't matter for business, how people perceive it does. People in the US (and in most of the world at this point) have moved on. Nobody cares anymore. I'm one of the few people still using masks in public transport etc. and even I go to theater without caring at this point.

 

People in China are in the full panic, crazy spread time of the pandemic now. They'll figure it out...in a few months, though. Now and the immediate future will be awful.

Edited December 19, 2022 by JustLurking

[The GOAT]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

Whether COVID is still around (which it obviously is) doesn't matter, how people perceive it does. People in the US (and in most of the world at this point) have moved on. Nobody cares anymore. I'm one of the few people still using masks in public transport etc. and even I go to theater without caring at this point.

 

People in China are in the full panic, crazy spread time of the pandemic now. They'll figure it out...in a few months, though. Now and the immediate future will be awful.

I still can't believe France blamed their loss on COVID 

[marveldcfox]

Okay Reviews

World cup

Covid

3 hour run time

3d no longet a selling point

Lethargic marketing compared to first one

[adaros]

6 hours ago, AJG said:

I’m saying $800m-$1.1bn. 
 

It’s time to get real, friends.

I'm not expecting big numbers unless we see signs of good legs kicking in, but this is just ridiculous 

[danziger]

2 hours ago, Nero said:

NWH opened to $260M when omicron was in peak. I agree issue with China but blaming lower OW to covid issue in NA is ridiculous 

 
What NWH did is amazing and begs the question of how high it would've gone  without the pandemic.

 

Omicron's peak by far was in January 2022, surpassing 5 million cases per week: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklycases_select_00

 

NWH opened 2 days after weekly cases were 842,000 (45% drop from the year-ago point). Latest report is 455,000 weekly cases (this is probably undercounted way more than previously due to the severe decline in testing, but doesn't matter much for this discussion because it's more about what people think is happening). 

 

Avatar is def helped a lot by so many more people pretending the pandemic is over, but it remains deadly real and a constraining factor for a big chunk of the country, and unlike last year we have flu and RSV joining the party for a tripledemic.

 

I'm not saying it cut $50 million from the OW or anything close to that, but to say it didn't hurt it at all, well, to use your word, that's ridiculous. The NYT article linked in my previous post shows that "Percent of weekly doctor and hospital visits for respiratory illness" is higher now that at any other point during the covid pandemic. It also reports:

Quote

 

R.S.V., or respiratory syncytial virus, has made so many young children ill this fall that weekly pediatric hospitalizations for R.S.V. are the highest recorded. Influenza, which normally peaks in February, has driven up hospitalization rates to the highest level for this time of year in more than a decade, surpassing hospitalizations from Covid-19.

 

With flu surging and Covid-19 circulating, respiratory illness has overwhelmed pediatric units across the country, shifting the strain to emergency rooms and children’s hospitals.

 

“You ask people who are involved with either emergency services or hospitalizations and they’ll tell you this is the worst season that they can remember,” said Dr. Daniel Rauch, chief of pediatric hospital medicine at Tufts Medical Center.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

so PAPA FEIGE is one true KING

[Sheldon Cr]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

(not my area of expertise at all )

Hah hah. Well I hope your rooting for Avatar 2 my brother. We need the whole saga to be completed 😂 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/24/2020 at 8:46 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

Fanwars aside, my serious prediction for Avatar 2 will be as follow.

 

China: I know this is a wild card. The Hollywood box office in China has increased from 100mn admits in 2010 to 560mn last year though it peaked at 670mn in 2017 but people seems to assume that the biggest film increase is also at same rate. By 2017, the market increased for Hollywood films at 6.7x but biggest film increased by 2.8x only.Now there are two reasons for that, One the number of screens has increased manifold but population is still around the same. In 2010, Avatar would have released on 4000 screens only but had 75mn plus seats to fill in its run, so seats were still there and people were still there, but it had 26mn viewers & Two the market increased due to more films increasing and basically films which appeal was less in 2010 was getting more audience by 2017. The biggest Hollywood watched film in China is at 87mn, I don't think Avatar 2 will go much higher. Even if that 87mn is matched, the gross value is unlikely because Endgame had a fanbase to pay the high prices which general audience won't. The ATP in China is roughly ¥35-38, Endgame was ¥49. At 87mn, Avatar 2 will be at ¥3.3Bn approx i.e. $470mn. And frankly speaking I have my doubts on whether it can really go for 87mn. And regarding 3D, well 90% plus of box office is in 3D for almost all films, as 3D is force fed. So about $475mn (+/-20%).

 

USA: Avatar had 72mn viewers in USA/Canada. Now no film with 60mn plus viewers, had its sequel increase except Endgame but that was kind of like MCU thing, in time increasing. TDK sequel fell from 67mn to 50mn. JW sequel fell from 67mn to 42mn. TFA from 93mn to 62mn, so you get it. I don't think Avatar 2 will be exception either. Expecting at least 20% decline in viewership will account to 58mn at 2021 prices, which will be low post Covid and assuming a decent 3D share for 30-40%, well should be able to gross $625mn. If the WoM ain't great, which is unlikely though, I won't be surprised with similar to The Lion King numbers.

 

Europe: Now this is the region I expect a big drop. Two factors, one ER is shit and two viewership is down in majority countries with low inflation. Avatar had 93mn viewers in Europe which at Endgame ticket rates is about $810mn Approx as compared to $1.1Bn in 2009. Besides, I think it getting 75mn viewers will be a max. Expecting $650mn Approx.

 

Latin America: Now this is the market which will suffer be primarily due to exchange rates. Avatar grossed $152 million in this region but even at Endgame ticket rates, it is less than $130mn today. Endgame grossed $260mn in the region compared to $190mn of The Avengers, even though admissions almost doubled. I don't think Avatar 2 will be doubling its admissions, in fact Infinity War admissions is best it can hope for. I expect around $180mn with exchange rate even going shittier.

 

Asia-Japan: This will be the market which will see the growth. I can totally put Infinity War numbers for it here. Roughly 60mn admits and a gross of ~$325mn.

 

Japan and Australia: Well these two suffers from ER and not much of inflation with usual moviegoing decline. Japan is expected to gross $100mn while Australia shall be around $75mn.

 

Worldwide: $2425mn ($2000-2700mn)

 

That said, I don't see any reason that film fail to cross $2 Billion unless its shit or Post Covid nobody want to go to theaters and all. 

My first take on A2 is turning out to be accurate than the one I had after NWH last year. So NWH was indeed special.
 

On 4/28/2022 at 6:44 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

I think I did changed my prediction from this 2 year old post last year, but doing it again.

China - ATP has risen in last 2 years immensely. Can even go for 55 ATP. +/-$750M

USA - 3D is back on top of recent inflation. If NWH on XMAS can do $800M, there is not much to think Avatar can't do. +/-800M
Europe - If NWH can do $440M in Europe on XMAS, Avatar 2 can certainly do $700M or so. +/-$750M

LATAM - +/-$225M

Asia-Japan - +/-$375M

Middle East - +/- $100M

Japan + ANZ - +/-$180M

~$3.1B
 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[IronJimbo]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

so PAPA FEIGE is one true KING

charlie I have to ask when you tweet why don't you just post the facts, you always add some opinion with it and it makes people not want to read your tweets

[Sheldon Cr]

6 hours ago, cdsacken said:

 

sweet christmas WW that seems aggressive.  Surely it will have good legs.

 

However I would bet it's much closer to 1.2B than it is 2.2B. 

😄. That statement is almost as bad as those saying black adam and ds2 would be bigger than Avatar 2 lol. You can dream tho. It will be close to NWH  by Jan lol

 

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

charlie I have to ask when you tweet why don't you just post the facts, you always add some opinion with it and it makes people not want to read your tweets

can you provide more context? my bo tweets are usually very simplified due to character limit, sometime too much.

[Sheldon Cr]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

charlie I have to ask when you tweet why don't you just post the facts, you always add some opinion with it and it makes people not want to read your tweets

I know right and Charlie is always wrong Jimbo when it comes to Avatar 2.

So it's a good sign  when he posts the doom nonsense.

 

Means we will likely beat NWH WW somewhere in January. Also good news is that the world cup is over.   Let's see if Ads and wom don't bring more  folks out.to premium theaters now.

 

Whats your feeling for OW2?

 

I'm feeling 75-90m. 

 

Highend 95-109m👍

 

Slow and steady climb again Jimbo!

 

."Where Ever We Go!"
 

" This Family is Our Fortress!"

 

 

75-90+m OW2 INCOMING!! PANDORIANS!!

 Let's get that 5.9-6.6+ multiplier 

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Just updating

[IronJimbo]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

can you provide more context? my bo tweets are usually very simplified due to character limit, sometime too much.

Ok I apologise , after looking through your page it is 95% facts. It's when you use words/phrases like "underpeform, amazing"

[IronJimbo]

7 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

I know right and Charlie is always wrong Jimbo. So it's good when he posts.

Means it's likely we will beat NWH  WW. Also good news is world cup is over. Let's see if Ads and wom don't bring more  folks out.to premium theaters now. Whats your feeling for OW2. I'm feeling 70-90m. 

 

Highend 90-106m

if it was a regular weekend i would say 10-30% drop, I will have to do more research on how Christmas eve Sat and Christman sunday will effect it

[JimiQ]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

if it was a regular weekend i would say 10-30% drop, I will have to do more research on how Christmas eve Sat and Christman sunday will effect it

I was expecting low 30s drop, because Cameron, big 25th and big 23rd (school’s out…), but I have been told that’s too optimistic and best A2 can hope for is around 40% drop.

 

but I still think my fundaments are there.

35% to 30% drop would be $87M-$94M

[Sheldon Cr]

6 hours ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

You're easy to shock then. That would barely be 2.5x OW during the holidays. Essentially impossible. 

The hate for Avatar is strong in him Xx4. Lol @ 1.1b WW. When the movie is almost half where there already.

 Still Not as bad as the Black Adam  and Maverick will beat Avatar OW and best it  Ww statements lol.

 Steady holds will tell the tale if James has another 2 billion ww monster. Which will be impressive with that's going on indeed.👍

 

[stephanos13]

1 hour ago, marveldcfox said:

Okay Reviews

World cup

Covid

3 hour run time

3d no longet a selling point

Lethargic marketing compared to first one

 

I disagree with few of your points.

 

- First of all a movie with Best Picture nomination in the Critics Choice it doesn't have just okay reviews.

Audience reception seems great in all the countries (based on different ranking systems in every country)

 

- 3D no longer a selling point it seems wrong because the screens with best format are selling out and are not enough of them.

Edited December 19, 2022 by stephanos13

[Sheldon Cr]

18 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

if it was a regular weekend i would say 10-30% drop, I will have to do more research on how Christmas eve Sat and Christman sunday will effect it

Yep I'm hoping for 10-30% drops as well.

Definitely looks good for everyone returning at our 2d viewing.

 

People and kids were estastic!

 

Also folks keep forgetting Avatar 2 is still way ahead of Avatar on the domestic and WW front( though not as big as we hoped  out the starting gate)

 

Wom is just as good and this is the must.see film of the year. We need a T2 multiplier or better to have a shot at 880m-1B plus  domestic

 

 Let's get it done!

Not the first.time we have heard the doom and gloom and then the haters of Cameron success get shut up Jimbo. 

 

😉 They never learn my brother

Sending the postive energy call to titans and pandorians now...They have heard us and they are coming!!..

 

"Where Ever We Go!"
 

" This Family is Our Fortress!"

 

[stripe]

Some possible explanations to OW "underperforming". 

- Not upfront demand like with other franchises. Some deciding to go during Holidays.

- 3 hours+ runtime

- bad weather

- backlash from first movie

- deeply depressed market

- world cup

[Sheldon Cr]

4 minutes ago, stripe said:

Some possible explanations to OW "underperforming". 

- Not upfront demand like with other franchises. Some deciding to go during Holidays.

- 3 hours+ runtime

- bad weather

- backlash from first movie

- deeply depressed market

- world cup

Going to be interesting bo watch indeed