Avatree Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Star Wars is guaranteed at least $400 million, that's just the floor. Although Avengers has more of a guaranteed $550+, it also doesn't have a huge amount of room for growth above that, whereas for Star Wars, the sky's the limit. It has an actual shot at slaying Avatar both domestically and globally - Star Wars is the biggest brand in moviemaking, no question of it. Everyone knows about Star Wars and everyone will watch it. Regardless of any prequel hate that might be lingering, right now - at least where I live - it is very clear that Episode 7 is the most hyped movie for the future. It has made regular news headlines, everyone knows about it. Which can't be said for many other films. My predictions: #1 - Star Wars: Episode VII - $700 million #2 - Avengers 2 - $580 million #3 - The Hunger Games 4 - $450 million #4 - Inside Out - $280 million #5 - Fast and Furious 7 - $260 million #6 - Minions - $245 million #7 - The Good Dinosaur - $240 million #8 - Mission: Impossible 5 - $235 million #9 - Fifty Shades of Grey - $220 million #10 - Tomorrowland - $215 million Star Wars - explained above Avengers - while the individual movies will continue to grow, I'm not sure that the team-up films will see much growth, if any at all. $580 is virtually identical to the first one's gross. It could do more, though it'd be surprising to significantly increase upon such a large amount. Hunger Games - I don't know why everyone is throwing huge numbers at Mockingjay Part 2. Given that there was no growth from the first movie to the second, I don't imagine there will be much of an increase by the time the final film lands. While it's true that more people will turn out for the finale, the general audience hasn't had much time to get attached to this series given that it's only 4 films and they're all releasing within 3 and a half years of each other. So it won't see as much as a boost as Deathly Hallows part 2. Inside Out - Pixar hasn't had a particularly strong past few years, but this is something original and it's directed by the man who helmed Up and Monsters Inc. If audiences connect it could bring Pixar back to where they were a few years ago. Fast 7 - this franchise has been played out now that franchise fatigue should be about to kick in. It does have Paul Walker's death going for it; it won't have a Heath Ledger-like effect but it will be similar. It's surprising how aware the public still is about his death even now, despite it being old news. It will have an effect but it'll have been 1.5 years since the death. It wouldn't surprise me if this actually grossed less than Fast 6 domestically, but I don't think that'll happen quite yet. Fast 8 will though. Minions - I can't believe how generous people are being towards this. It's a spin-off and it's competing in one of the most crowded summer ever. While animated competition only comes in the form of Inside Out (which in itself is something), there are plenty of family-orientated films releasing around that time. And it's a spin-off - it won't even get close to DM2's gross. The Good Dinosaur - kids love animal animated adventures, so this will probably be big. That being said, it has had some production issues that could hold it back from being great. MI5 - I doubt this will improve much on MI4. That itself was a big step up from MI3 in terms of box office gross, so it's unlikely to do much better. Franchise fatigue may not have as big an effect as it might usually have though, thanks to the lengthy gaps between the films (4, 6, 5, 4 years). Fifty Shades - given the number of us women who loved this book, I can only imagine that the film will break out just as much as the book did. There's a lot of excitement for the film and there's a good chance it turns into an event film, given the controversy surrounding it. Tomorrowland - this one's a bit of a potshot, but I think this film will do really well. It's almost guaranteed to be well-received - the cast and director have strong histories, and it may stand out in a summer full of sequels. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessie Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) Star wars has no chance of beating Avatar worldwide, no chance. It was never THAT big in overseas markets, Potter is bigger globally than Star Wars so no way in hell it manages to come close to 2b overseas.Domestically I agree, it has a better chance to beat Avatar than TA 2 because the sky is the limit in the US, but it won't happen. Edited September 16, 2014 by jessie 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandrew Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 The floor for SW is $483M imo, but I do believe theres a ceiling. I see it doing a TPM, but on a smaller scale. I cant see anything over $600M. Somewhere between there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessie Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) Yeah i don't see it selling less tickets domestically than ROTS, the curiosity factor will be huge Edited September 16, 2014 by jessie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 (edited) Star wars has no chance of beating Avatar worldwide, no chance. It was never THAT big in overseas markets, Potter is bigger globally than Star Wars so no way in hell it manages to come close to 2b overseas.Domestically I agree, it has a better chance to beat Avatar than TA 2 because the sky is the limit in the US, but it won't happen. Indeed. Star Wars is still the biggest brand in US, but not OS. In 2002, Clones did 338 OS, when Harry Potter or LOTR were making 580-620. In 2005, Revenge of the Sith did 468, a closer number to Chronicles of Narnia (453) than to Potter (607). Star Wars still has to show its power OS. Probably with inflation, expanding markets and 3D the usual 350-450 numbers can grow to 800, but to talk about Avatar numbers is not even an option. In fact, TA2 will be bigger OS than Star Wars. Domestically is another story. The battle between SW7 and TA2 will be great. The biggest in one single year ever, over TA vs TDKR. Edited September 17, 2014 by peludo 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tommycruise Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Star Wars is guaranteed at least $400 million, that's just the floor. Although Avengers has more of a guaranteed $550+, it also doesn't have a huge amount of room for growth above that, whereas for Star Wars, the sky's the limit. It has an actual shot at slaying Avatar both domestically and globally - Star Wars is the biggest brand in moviemaking, no question of it. Everyone knows about Star Wars and everyone will watch it.Regardless of any prequel hate that might be lingering, right now - at least where I live - it is very clear that Episode 7 is the most hyped movie for the future. It has made regular news headlines, everyone knows about it. Which can't be said for many other films. My predictions:#1 - Star Wars: Episode VII - $700 million#2 - Avengers 2 - $580 million#3 - The Hunger Games 4 - $450 million#4 - Inside Out - $280 million#5 - Fast and Furious 7 - $260 million#6 - Minions - $245 million#7 - The Good Dinosaur - $240 million#8 - Mission: Impossible 5 - $235 million#9 - Fifty Shades of Grey - $220 million#10 - Tomorrowland - $215 million Star Wars - explained above Avengers - while the individual movies will continue to grow, I'm not sure that the team-up films will see much growth, if any at all. $580 is virtually identical to the first one's gross. It could do more, though it'd be surprising to significantly increase upon such a large amount. Hunger Games - I don't know why everyone is throwing huge numbers at Mockingjay Part 2. Given that there was no growth from the first movie to the second, I don't imagine there will be much of an increase by the time the final film lands. While it's true that more people will turn out for the finale, the general audience hasn't had much time to get attached to this series given that it's only 4 films and they're all releasing within 3 and a half years of each other. So it won't see as much as a boost as Deathly Hallows part 2. Inside Out - Pixar hasn't had a particularly strong past few years, but this is something original and it's directed by the man who helmed Up and Monsters Inc. If audiences connect it could bring Pixar back to where they were a few years ago. Fast 7 - this franchise has been played out now that franchise fatigue should be about to kick in. It does have Paul Walker's death going for it; it won't have a Heath Ledger-like effect but it will be similar. It's surprising how aware the public still is about his death even now, despite it being old news. It will have an effect but it'll have been 1.5 years since the death. It wouldn't surprise me if this actually grossed less than Fast 6 domestically, but I don't think that'll happen quite yet. Fast 8 will though. Minions - I can't believe how generous people are being towards this. It's a spin-off and it's competing in one of the most crowded summer ever. While animated competition only comes in the form of Inside Out (which in itself is something), there are plenty of family-orientated films releasing around that time. And it's a spin-off - it won't even get close to DM2's gross. The Good Dinosaur - kids love animal animated adventures, so this will probably be big. That being said, it has had some production issues that could hold it back from being great. MI5 - I doubt this will improve much on MI4. That itself was a big step up from MI3 in terms of box office gross, so it's unlikely to do much better. Franchise fatigue may not have as big an effect as it might usually have though, thanks to the lengthy gaps between the films (4, 6, 5, 4 years). Fifty Shades - given the number of us women who loved this book, I can only imagine that the film will break out just as much as the book did. There's a lot of excitement for the film and there's a good chance it turns into an event film, given the controversy surrounding it. Tomorrowland - this one's a bit of a potshot, but I think this film will do really well. It's almost guaranteed to be well-received - the cast and director have strong histories, and it may stand out in a summer full of sequels.No jurassic world? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avatree Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 No jurassic world? Knew I was missing a film! Oops >.< JW is an interesting one. Its critical reception will be hugely influential - if it's good, it could get up to $300 million, but if it's bad then it won't do much more than $200. I guess I'll settle somewhere in the middle with $260 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tupek Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Oh I can't help but recall all of those huge predictions for The Hobbit 1... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 The floor for SW is $483M imo, but I do believe theres a ceiling. I see it doing a TPM, but on a smaller scale. I cant see anything over $600M. Somewhere between there. Nah more like 482.97M. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Oh I can't help but recall all of those huge predictions for The Hobbit 1...LotR was huge, no doubt. But again, nowhere near SW level. Not domestic, anyway. WW, it might be bigger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Actually ET's original run adjusts to 939m whereas Titanic original run adjusts to 1068m, so Titanic was bigger adjusted as well No, Titanic had at least two releases as far as I remember and it doesn't adjust to 1b without them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 No, Titanic had at least two releases as far as I remember and it doesn't adjust to 1b without them 1, what was the other? It adjusts to 1B without the re-release. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 What will be the biggest month of 2015? I'd put my money on July or December... even November! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maryksinger Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 jurassic world will be lucky to get 200M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maryksinger Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 For Horror Movies The Conjuring 2 - 110M Insidious Chapter 3 - 65M The Purge 3: 65M Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension: 61M Sinister 2: 58M Poltergeist - 55M Friday the 13th (2015): 50M Amityville: The Awakenig: 48M 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 1, what was the other? It adjusts to 1B without the re-release. Box Office Mojo doesn't show all the re-releases, like when Titanic was put back into the theater fairly recently after it had just gotten out. I think lisa has a compiled list of adjusted original runs and E.T. was higher than Titanic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walt Disney Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Actually ET's original run adjusts to 939m whereas Titanic original run adjusts to 1068m, so Titanic was bigger adjusted as well Domestically, E.T. is greater. I have no idea how anyone can adjust OS numbers, since it's impossible with the exchange rates continuously changing. I don't believe your numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Empire Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 jurassic world will be lucky to get 200MNah, it has a greater chance to make 300M than it does missing 200M. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maryksinger Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Nah, it has a greater chance to make 300M than it does missing 200M. after 3? find it hard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tupek Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 LotR was huge, no doubt. But again, nowhere near SW level. Not domestic, anyway. WW, it might be bigger.Nowhere near? ROTK sold more tickets than ROTS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...