Weekend Numbers: GOTG - 94M (PG 180) [25.5M Sunday (Spatula) Cancel the Godzilla legs!]

[MrPink]

Ohhhh. if I could make that my sig...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I can!

 

In other words.

 

Oh......yeah...

[Sam]

Ohhhh. if I could make that my sig...

 

 

I can!

You should use this one instead

You're welcome.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

Well, sure, I mean, I don't doubt you know what you're talking about, but like I said, I was looking at "successful" adaptations and set a decently high bar to reflect that, a bar which GotG should get over quite easily.

 

It seems a little weird that you're trotting out some of those movies as ones you'd seriously consider comps with which to judge how GotG is going to do.  I mean, one thing those movies all had in common was that they were at best mediocre and for the most part pretty bad.  

 

I mean, look at those RT%!

 

Daredevil 45%

Elektra 10%

Watchmen 65%

GL 26%

TIH 67%

Hulk 62%

Catwoman 9%

FF2 27%

 

I never saw either of the Hulks but was told they were "Fine, I guess" which about matches their RT%, and no one's a bigger Watchmen fan than me, but even I'd concede that the only way WM got as high as 65% was through some fanboy reviewing.  It wasn't awful, for the most part, and it had some moments that were great, but overall it certainly wasn't good.  

 

Review quality (for the most part) obviously is going to impact a movie's domestic multiple, so it seems weird that you're saying GotG might not necessarily expect to have strong legs because Catwoman and Elektra didn't.  I mean, I get that they're all comic adaptations, but I think some allowances should be made not to dump the "sub-10% RT" movies in with the "over 90% RT" movies. Windtalkers tanking at the box-office shouldn't really be taken as an indication of how Inglourious Basterds is going to do, even though they're both WW2 movies, right?

 

So, 2.5 is probably a fair multiple for *all* adaptations, but once you get up into the "good/successful" adaptations, I think the multiple starts ratcheting up a bit, just like you wouldn't expect FF2 to have good legs.

 

 

OK...I'll give you that good reviews do seem to translate to better legs for CBSH films. But there have been a few that had horrible legs but were seemingly received well by the public. Considering its Thurs previews(which are now lumped into Friday), even IM barely had a 3.1 multi(102.1/318.4). GOTG would require near a 3.2 to get to 300. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

[baumer]

So let's pretend I have a grasp of how the box office works:

 

GOTG:  

 

Monday:  12 mill (-52%)

Tues: 15.2 (+25%)

Wed:  10.7 (-28%)

Thurs:  9.7 (-10%)

Fri:  14.35 (+48%)

Sat:  19.3 (+35%)

Sun:  13.5 (-30%)

 

47.3M second weekend. That's pretty much a 50% drop on the nose.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

You should use this one instead

You're welcome.

 

 

Thanks.

[Mojoguy]

So let's pretend I have a grasp of how the box office works:

 

GOTG:  

 

Monday:  12 mill (-52%)

Tues: 15.2 (+25%)

Wed:  10.7 (-28%)

Thurs:  9.7 (-10%)

Fri:  14.35 (+48%)

Sat:  19.3 (+35%)

Sun:  13.5 (-30%)

 

47.3M second weekend. That's pretty much a 50% drop on the nose.

Both Iron Man and Avengers had about 50% second weekend drops. That kind of drop would be wonderful for GOTG.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

So let's pretend I have a grasp of how the box office works:

 

GOTG:  

 

Monday:  12 mill (-52%)

Tues: 15.2 (+25%)

Wed:  10.7 (-28%)

Thurs:  9.7 (-10%)

Fri:  14.35 (+48%)

Sat:  19.3 (+35%)

Sun:  13.5 (-30%)

 

47.3M second weekend. That's pretty much a 50% drop on the nose.

If it follows Cap1:

 

Monday:  11.3 (-55.5%)

Tues: 11.5 (+1%)

Wed:  8.5 (-25.9%)

Thurs:  7.9 (-6.5%)

Fri:  11.5 (+45%)

Sat:  14.5 (+26.4%)

Sun:  11.3 (-22%)

 

37.3 (-60%)

 

My opinion:

 

Monday:  11.0 (-57%)

Tues: 12.3 (+12%)

Wed:  8.8 (-28%)

Thurs:  8.1 (-8%)

Fri:  12.0 (+47%)

Sat:  15.9 (+33%)

Sun:  12.1 (-24%)

 

40.0 (-57.5%)

 

EDIT: My monday drop could be a bit harsh since this could play like a kids film, but something tells me that Sunday number is inflated.

Edited August 5, 2014 by RaccoonsDineOnAAinHell™

[baumer]

I have to the conclusion that I know nothing about box office.  So my numbers will be way off.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

I have to the conclusion that I know nothing about box office.  So my numbers will be way off.

 

 

I'm just being conservative. You could be closer than me. For example, I doubt it increases that much on its first Tuesday, bit it could play like a kids film and surprise me.

[Wrath]

OK...I'll give you that good reviews do seem to translate to better legs for CBSH films. But there have been a few that had horrible legs but were seemingly received well by the public. Considering its Thurs previews(which are now lumped into Friday), even IM barely had a 3.1 multi(102.1/318.4). GOTG would require near a 3.2 to get to 300. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

 

Yeah, I don't disagree.  A while back I used a slightly larger group than what I did before and the regression kinda suggested the multiple for a "successful" adaptation (I think I set the bar at like $130M domestic or so) was like 2.7 +/- 2% for every 1% of RT% above or below 75%.  So, a 90% movie would have a 3.0.  

 

I was happy with my math, until I realized it was crap because sequels really do seem to have weaker legs than original properties and I didn't factor for non-Friday starts and a bunch of other things that turn out to be pretty significant.  So, I do like crunching numbers, but I also recognize that sometimes I'm just completely wrong and I'm ok with people telling me when that's the case.  You just have to show me how its wrong.

[ecstasy]

Guardians will exceed Cap 2's gross I bet. Seems like most people are enjoying it a lot.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

The crazy thing is looking at past 90-100m opening films and how they fared in the legs dept.

 

Only one film out of the bunch was over 500k on weekend 10. That was Godzilla with 515k.

 

 

To show the contrast between legs of today and 13 years ago, here's what HP1(which opened to 90.3m in 2001) made on weekend 10: $2,586,521

 

In 2008, here's how Iron Man did on weekend 10: $1,459,613

 

 

 

Then again, here's how FF6 fared on weekend 10 last year: $311,055 and it only dropped 3.5% from the weekend before!

Edited August 5, 2014 by RaccoonsDineOnAAinHell™

[eXtacy]

Guardians will exceed Cap 2's gross I bet. Seems like most people are enjoying it a lot.

 

Who would of thought Captain American would outgross Thor by ~60m and Guardians potentially outgrossing Captain America, crazy

[ecstasy]

Who would of thought Captain American would outgross Thor by ~60m and Guardians potentially outgrossing Captain America, crazy

 

True. But Cap 2 is nowhere near the shocker the GOTG will be if it happens. 

[BoxOfficeZ]

Who would of thought Captain American would outgross Thor by ~60m and Guardians potentially outgrossing Captain America, crazy

I saw the first happening (Cap outgrossing Thor), but the second was a surprise. 

[Mango]

I really think Guardians is headed for 3x multi. That would put it at $290 million and maybe the first movie of the year to sell 30 million tickets.

[SuperBatman]

I'm rooting for this movie to get to 300 It could be very close it depends how TMNT effects it I don't think Expendables or Sin City will make a dent. Giver who knows.

[ecstasy]

I'm rooting for this movie to get to 300 It could be very close it depends how TMNT effects it I don't think Expendables or Sin City will make a dent. Giver who knows.

 

I think Turtles will put up a worthy battle but Guardians has Imax 3D on its side.

[Orestes]

I think Turtles will put up a worthy battle but Guardians has Imax 3D on its side.

 

From what I hear, its 3D is quite a bit better than the typical Marvel 3D efforts. I rather liked it, at any rate, but it's the only Marvel film I've seen in 3D so I can't compare.

Edited August 5, 2014 by Orestes

[ecstasy]

From what I hear, its 3D is quite a bit better than the typical Marvel 3D efforts. I rather liked it, at any rate, but it's the only Marvel film I've seen in 3D so I can't compare.

 

This is one I actually enjoyed in 3D. Sometimes I'm stuck with watching a movie in 3D if I have a time crunch and want to squeeze it in.

 

3D has mostly been worthless for every movie I've seen other than Gravity that includes non Marvel movies as well.