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Fancyarcher

Tuesday Estimates (RTH): TMNT (7.4), GOTG (6.6)

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Guardians is already outpacing Winter Soldier.Plus, I don't see EX3 taking much business away from Guardians. Less buzz than the first two plus the PG-13 rating pushing away those who were hoping for an R and younger audiences not caring much for the older action types.

Caps dropped 38% its third weekend and 36% its fourth weekend. Again, that will be tough to match. That said, the weekdays belong to Guardians for the foreseeable future. It's killing Caps there. If it manages match Caps drops weekend to weekend the next few weeks, it may have a shot at $300M DOM. It's currently, including spatula's numbers, outpacing Caps 2 by over $20M and will continue to widen the gap. I hope it does hold extremely well, I'd love for the summer to a $300M earner DOM and preferred it to Caps 2 to boot.

Edited by JohnnyGossamer
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I think Guardians is looking likely to overtake Turtles this weekend. If E3 underperforms and if its drop is small enough it could be back in the no 1 spot.

Its possible but very unlikely. GotG would need to hit its top and TMNT its bottom. Under 10%.
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Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - 7.53 (+13%)

Guardians of the Galaxy - 6.61 (+24%)

 

 

I think Guardians is looking likely to overtake Turtles this weekend. If E3 underperforms and if its drop is small enough it could be back in the no 1 spot.

 

 

It's possible, but I'd say unlikely. TMNT is still 900K ahead, and had a good Tuesday jump. I don't think it will fall hard enough to drop to GOTG's level by Thursday. It may have a better jump on Saturday too.

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It's possible, but I'd say unlikely. TMNT is still 900K ahead, and had a good Tuesday jump. I don't think it will fall hard enough to drop to GOTG's level by Thursday. It may have a better jump on Saturday too.

Depends on its Friday increase. TMNT plays more to families meaning a much smaller Friday especially with summer weekdays.Guardians should score a rather large Friday increase with easier competition this week.
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6.61M Tuesday (+24%)

 

My projection for GOTG for rest of the week

 

4.83M (-27%)

4.34M (-10%)

7.60M (+75%)

10.64M (+40%)

7.45M (-30%)

 

3rd weekend 25.7M (-39%)

 

My friday is lower than yours.  I think it will jump by about 55-60%, not 75%.

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I'm thinking a 53-55% drop for Turtles this weekend and a 39-42% drop for Guardians. Turtles should still win but I do think there is a slight possibility EX3 comes in 3rd place.

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Depends on its Friday increase. TMNT plays more to families meaning a much smaller Friday especially with summer weekdays.Guardians should score a rather large Friday increase with easier competition this week.

 

How does TMNT play more to families than GOTG?

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My friday is lower than yours. I think it will jump by about 55-60%, not 75%.

I think Friday increases should be getting bigger as the month progresses. Hence why both GOTG and TMNT had near 60% Monday drops. Weekdays are getting smaller and Friday/Saturday increases should get bigger.
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When GOTG first came out, a lot of you claimed it would play HUGE with families. What happened to that thought, Panda?

Is it not? I'm sure Turtles cut into some of the family audience but I'm assuming its still getting a good bit of families.
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I think Friday increases should be getting bigger as the month progresses. Hence why both GOTG and TMNT had near 60% Monday drops. Weekdays are getting smaller and Friday/Saturday increases should get bigger.

 

Naaa...just compare it to years gone by.  The jumps are bigger but not that big just yet.  

 

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2012-08-17&track=batman3.htm

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Is it not? I'm sure Turtles cut into some of the family audience but I'm assuming its still getting a good bit of families.

 

Of course it is, but I'm responding to Panda's post.

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