Shazam! | April 5, 2019 | 21st Most Profitable Film of 2019

[LexJoker]

I was told last week the pre-sale tracking suggested this would open to 15M OW. Has pre-sales improved? Will this open to atleast 20M?

[lorddemaxus]

32 minutes ago, LexJoker said:

I was told last week the pre-sale tracking suggested this would open to 15M OW. Has pre-sales improved? Will this open to atleast 20M?

Last week presales didn't suggest the movie would open to 15 mil. It suggested that it would open to 15 mil if it was compared to Captain Marvel which 99% will not.

[LexJoker]

6 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Last week presales didn't suggest the movie would open to 15 mil. It suggested that it would open to 15 mil if it was compared to Captain Marvel which 99% will not.

I was lied to

[Djsoke]

49 minutes ago, LexJoker said:

I was lied to

Yeah, I'd guess the film is likely to open to 55m+

Edited April 1, 2019 by Djsoke

[MrGlass2]

47 minutes ago, LexJoker said:

I was told last week the pre-sale tracking suggested this would open to 15M OW. Has pre-sales improved? Will this open to atleast 20M?

That isn't really how it works: compared to other superhero movies the presales were and remain low. $15M was the number calculated by comparing to Captain Marvel; someone in the BO Buzz thread said Shazam's PS were around 40% of Aquaman (that also had early access, unlike CM), which would mean $27M OW.

 

Again, Fandango numbers are what they are; you have to guess how walk-up friendly a movie is to make a real prediction. The actual trade tracking number was around $40M OW for Shazam a couple of weeks ago.

[cdsacken]

Imo 50+

 

hoping for 65+.

[Matthew]

Last 7 days for CM before the opening week :  65625 Fandango presales 

 

At this time CM was doing normal as review embargo and Premiere hasn't happened yet. So CM presales were normal at this time. 

 

Last 7 days for Shazam before the opening week :  7353 Fandango presales

 

That's 11% of CM. 

 

Hope movie do bonkers these 4 days otherwise 55M+ is impossible. 

 

Edited April 1, 2019 by Matthew
Presles Figures

[Matthew]

Updated by @akvalley: 2019-04-01 02:01:36 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)

BUY TIME TICKETS MOVIE TITLE

--------------------------------------------------

2019-04-01 01:00:00 56 Shazam!

2019-04-01 01:00:00 54 Us (2019)

2019-04-01 01:00:00 39 Dumbo (2019)

2019-04-01 01:00:00 36 Captain Marvel (2019)

2019-04-01 01:00:00 12 Pet Sematary (2019)

2019-04-01 01:00:00 9 Hotel Mumbai

2019-04-01 01:00:00 7 Shazam! The IMAX 2D Experience

 

 

Shazam is increasing. Good. 👍👍👍

[reddevil19]

With Dumbo underperforming, this SHOULD be the number one family choice. However, that would require a huge marketing blitz this week, with focus on that. If the focus is on it being a superhero movie - even a comedy - I think people will skip it and wait for Endgame, as this just won't have the must-see factor to it on OW. Word of mouth might help it, of course, but - again - the behemoth coming on its heels will kill legs, even by sheer virtue of taking up so many screens.

[cdsacken]

Best to not use Fandango numbers as a way to forecast for weekend numbers. Imo of course but the correlation is terrible.

Edited April 1, 2019 by cdsacken

[jf8350143]

Solo's Fandango pre-sale was suppose to be twice of Black Panther. CM's pre-sale was also higher then Black Panther.

 

It didn't really mean anything when it comes to opening weekend.

[Matthew]

30 minutes ago, jf8350143 said:

Solo's Fandango pre-sale was suppose to be twice of Black Panther. CM's pre-sale was also higher then Black Panther.

 

It didn't really mean anything when it comes to opening weekend.

Totally wrong. 

Solo presales were higher only on First 24 hrs

 

CM all over was always behind BP. 

 

Just because Shazam is not doing good in presales doesn't mean you can say anything. 

[cdsacken]

Based on your fandango numbers Shazam would open to 16.8 million. It's silly because it already had 3.3 million in screenings which is another reason those numbers are completely wrong.

 

I will be happy to eat crow if Shazam ends up anywhere near even 25. I bet it's 50 plus showing how wrong that data is. Even if Fandango picks up Aquaman had nowhere near CM numbers

 

Presales provide a great data point towards overall interest in a film but they do account for walkups, word of mouth and other factors.

[lorddemaxus]

23 minutes ago, Matthew said:

Totally wrong. 

Solo presales were higher only on First 24 hrs

 

CM all over was always behind BP. 

 

Just because Shazam is not doing good in presales doesn't mean you can say anything. 

Just because you are comparing Shazam's presales to CM (which was way more frontloaded than 99% of superhero movies), doesn't mean presales are bad.

 

And CM was always marginally behind BP. There wasn't a humongous gap. Pretty sure Captain Marvel was ahead of Black Panther for most of the week it released on also.

Edited April 1, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[Matthew]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Just because you are comparing Shazam's presales to CM (which was way more frontloaded than 99% of superhero movies), doesn't mean presales are bad.

 

And CM was always marginally behind BP. There wasn't a humongous gap.

CM was not front loaded as 99% Superhero movies. 

 

I am just saying a fact that Shazam should pick presales this week to do 55M+

 

CM presales except for last 3 days always pointed toward a 150M+ OW. Ask someone if I am wrong. 

Edited April 1, 2019 by Matthew

[Matthew]

7 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Based on your fandango numbers Shazam would open to 16.8 million. It's silly because it already had 3.3 million in screenings which is another reason those numbers are completely wrong.

 

I will be happy to eat crow if Shazam ends up anywhere near even 25. I bet it's 50 plus showing how wrong that data is. Even if Fandango picks up Aquaman had nowhere near CM numbers

 

Presales provide a great data point towards overall interest in a film but they do account for walkups, word of mouth and other factors.

Yes, I know Shazam will open way higher than presales. What I am saying is that as of now presales are cold. 

 

But they will hopefully pick up from Today. Positive reviews should start doing their effect now. 

[cdsacken]

Ok yeah I think part of it is the most hardcore fans already saw it. It should be fine, the reviews are just stunning, even higher than I could have imagined.

[Matthew]

Just now, cdsacken said:

Ok yeah I think part of it is the most hardcore fans already saw it. It should be fine, the reviews are just stunning, even higher than I could have imagined.

I have already watched it and I think it's good. 

My only reservation for April are now GOT and Avengers Endgame (atleast 4 times) 

[Premium George]

1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

Best to not use Fandango numbers as a way to forecast for weekend numbers. Imo of course but the correlation is terrible.

Not to say anything about shazam, but correlation has been amazing. Cumulative sales have been 90% in the zone.

This year BO tracking thread has destroyed industry tracking. Fandago numbers are the best resource we have.

As for shazam, JW2 should be used. Also, Matthew is shivampa, a troll.

[cdsacken]

I guess it's how you utilize the numbers as well.