Weekend Prediction thread 5/3-5/5 Play the Derby

[Jonwo]

Even though I think Venom will win OW, I wouldn't be too shocked if ASIB manages to get to number 1 the week after although it does depend on where First Man lands.

[DAJK]

Venom - $60M

Star - $40M

 

I believe in 100 combined...

[stripe]

Venom - 59M

ASIB - 46M

Smallfoot - 14M

NS - 13.5M

HWACiIW - 7.5M

ASF - 4M

Nun - 3M

CRA - 3M

HF - 2M

Predator - 1.5M

 

Top 10 - 153.5M

 

[Blankments]

On 9/26/2018 at 9:18 PM, Blankments said:

The Princess and the Frog, Unbroken: Path of Redemption, Operation Finale, and A Boy. A Girl. A Dream are gone. As a random side note, one theater is offering a 21-hour and 50-min showing of Harry Potter where you can only buy the entire marathon, not individual theaters.

Tangled, Assassination Nation, The Meg, Ant-Man and the Wasp, BlacKkKlansman, El Dia de la Union, Incredibles 2, Cruise, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, Puzzle, and Lizzie are gone.

 

Venom - 76/2/44/2/1/8/5/10/15 (2D/2D with D-BOX/3D/3D with D-BOX/Dolby/IMAX/IMAX 3D/Spanish) total 163 (debut)

A Star is Born - 93/9 (2D/Dolby) total 102 (debut)

Night School - 77 (down 11)

Smallfoot - 56/7 (2D/3D) total 63 (down 14)

The House with a Clock in Its Walls - 51 (down 38)

A Simple Favor - 38 (down 21)

Hell Fest - 32 (down 21)

Crazy Rich Asians - 25 (down 12)

The Nun - 22/2 (2D/2D with D-BOX) total 24 (down 25)
Monsters and Men - 19 (up 14)

Christopher Robin - 18 (up 12)

Moana - 18 (debut)

The Predator - 13 (down 35)

Shine - 13 (debut)

The Old Man and the Gun - 11 (debut)

White Boy Rick - 10 (down 18)

Mission: Impossible - Fallout - 6 (down 6)

Colette - 5 (down 2)

Little Women - 5 (down 12)

The Samuel Project - 5 (debut)

The Sisters Brothers - 5 (down 2)

The Church - 4 (debut)

The Great Battle Subbed - 4 (no change)
Loving Pablo - 4 (debut)

Peppermint - 4 (down 6)
Searching - 4 (down 9)

Sui Dhaaga - Made In India Subbed - 4 (down 1)

Fahrenheit 11/9 - 3 (down 23)
Feng Shui Subbed - 3 (debut)

The Wife - 3 (down 3)

A Crooked Somebody - 2 (debut)

Golden Job Subbed - 2 (down 2)
The Negotiation Subbed - 2 (down 3)

Ya Veremos Subbed - 2 (down 3)

Blaze - 1 (down 3)

Life Itself - 1 (down 18)

[boxofficeth]

17 hours ago, Impact said:

My mind completely skipped on Poppins, but I do agree that Grinch could win November.

 

This month I'll just say Venom.

Venom is a solid choice, but my gut says ASIB. 

[Impact]

I honestly don't know what I'll see next. Last thing I saw was The Meg in August. I probably wont see anything this month.

[dxmatrixdt]

60.00 - Venom - 70.00
43.10 - Star/Born - 47.65
13.30 - Smallfoot - 41.86
13.00 - Night School - 47.48
7.50 - House/Clock - 55.28
3.60 - Simple Favor - 49.18
2.70 - The Nun - 113.46
2.05 - Crazy Rich - 169.12
1.90 - Hellfest - 7.89
1.49 - Predator - 50.58
0.79 - White Boy Rick - 23.54
0.70 - Hate U Give - 0.70
0.64 - Peppermint - 34.88
0.59 - Christopher Robin - 98.26
0.36 - The Meg - 142.59
0.36 - Mission 6 - 219.79
0.13 - Loving Pablo - 0.13

 

Spoiler

26.00 - Venom - 113.00
22.60 - Star/Born - 84.00
21.50 - First Man - 23.00
18.00 - Goosebumps - 18.90
9.40 - Bad Times at El Royale - 10.00
8.80 - Smallfoot - 53.30
8.00 - Night School - 58.90
4.80 - House/Clock - 61.90
2.30 - A Simple Favor - 52.60
2.30 - The Hate U Give - 3.20
1.33 - The Nun - 115.50
1.13 - Crazy Rich - 170.85
0.73 - Hellfest - 9.15
0.58 - Predator - 51.60
0.32 - White Boy Rick - 24.00 
0.23 - The Meg - 142.90
0.22 - Peppermint - 35.30
0.21 - Mission 6 - 220.10
0.20 - Christopher Robin - 98.60

 

Spoiler

49.0 - Halloween - 55.0
14.5 - Venom - 134.5
14.4 - Star/Born - 105.0
14.0 - First Man - 44.8
10.7 - Goosebumps 2 - 34.6
10.0 - Hate U Give - 13.8
5.5 - Smallfoot - 60.5
5.2 - Bad Times - 18.2
4.1 - Night School - 65.2
2.7 - House/Clock - 65.6
1.1 - Simple Favor - 54.4
0.6 - Crazy Rich - 171.8
0.5 - The Nun - 116.3
0.2 - Predator - 52.0
0.1 - Hellfest - 9.5

 

Spoiler

22.8 - Halloween - 92.3
15.5 - Hunter Killer - 16.5
10.4 - First Man - 59.5
9.2 - Star/Born - 118.3
8.1 - Venom - 146.6
6.8 - Goosebumps - 44.0
6.2 - Johnny English - 6.7
6.0 - Hate U Give - 23.0
3.1 - Smallfoot - 64.7
2.9 - Indivisible - 3.1
2.4 - Bad Times - 22.2
2.0 - Night School - 68.3
1.4 - House/Clock - 67.6

 

Spoiler

40.8 - Nutcracker - 43.1
30.0 - Bohemian Rhaphsody - 32.0
13.9 - Nobody's Fool - 14.7
12.2 - Halloween - 110.6
7.2 - Hunter Killer - 28.4
5.0 - First Man - 67.7
4.0 - Star/Born - 125.0
3.7 - Venom - 152.5
3.2 - Goosebumps - 48.5
3.0 - Hate U Give - 27.8
2.8 - Johnny English - 11.5
1.2 - Smallfoot - 66.5

 

Spoiler

61.0 - The Grinch - 64.0
21.0 - Spiders Web - 22.5
22.0 - Nutcracker - 65.0
16.7 - Bohemian Rhaphsody - 58.7
9.2 - Overlord - 10.0
6.8 - Nobody's Fool - 25.7
5.0 - Halloween - 118.5
2.8 - Hunter Killer - 33.2
2.4 - First Man - 71.7
2.0 - Star/Born - 128.1
1.5 - Venom - 155.1

 

 

 

 

 

[filmlover]

First Man: $25M

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween: $15M

Bad Times at the El Royale: $10M

[DAJK]

Goosebumps could make it to high teens I think. Gonna say 18 for that one, with Bad Times barely making 10. First Man is somewhat of a wildcard, but 27 seems like a safe bet. 

[Viktor Vilotijevic]

October 12-14:

 

1. Venom - 28.5 / 128.2

2. A Star is Born - 26.1 / 83.9

3. First Man - 23.8

4. Goosebumps 2 - 16.5

5. Smallfoot - 9.0 / 54.8

6. Bad Times at the El Royale - 8.5

7. Night School - 6.0 / 56.5

8. The House with Clock in it's Walls - 4.0 / 61.7

9. A Simple Favor - 1.9 / 52.2

10. Crazy Rich Asians - 1.2 / 171.0

11. The Nun - 1.1 / 115.3

12. The Hate U Give - 1.0 / 1.8

 

October 19-21:

 

1. Halloween - 68.8

2. A Star is Born - 15.7 / 107.8

3. First Man - 15.2 / 47.5

4. Venom - 12.5 / 150.3

5. Goosebumps 2 - 9.5 / 31.2

6. Smallfoot - 5.5 / 63.1

7. The Hate U Give - 5.2 / 7.3

8. Bad Times at the El Royale - 4.7 / 17.0

9. Night School - 2.7 / 61.3

10. The House with Clock in it's Walls - 2.2 / 65.3

11. A Simple Favor - 1.0 / 53.9

12. Crazy Rich Asians - 0.7 / 172.1

 

October 26-28:

 

1. Halloween - 29.6 / 117.4

2. First Man - 9.8 / 63.1

3. A Star is Born - 9.2 / 122.5

4. Hunter Killer - 8.5

5. Venom - 6.5 / 161.0

6. Goosebumps 2 - 6.4 / 41.1

7. The Hate U Give - 3.5 / 13.0

8. Johnny English Strikes Again - 3.2

9. Smallfoot - 3.0 / 68.2

10. Bad Times at the El Royale - 2.5 / 21.2

11. Night School - 1.1 / 63.5

12. The House with Clock in it's Walls - 0.9 / 67.1

 

November 2-9:

 

1. Bohemian Rhapsody - 33.8

2. The Nutcracker - 23.7

3. Nobody's Fool - 15.3

4. Halloween - 11.6 / 140.5

5. First Man - 6.6 / 73.7

6. A Star is Born - 6.2 / 132.6

7. Hunter Killer - 4.8 / 16.5

8. Suspiria - 3.3 / 3.7

9. Goosebumps 2 - 3.0 / 47.6

10. Venom - 2.9 / 166.4

11. The Hate U Give - 2.0 / 16.4

12. Smallfoot - 1.8 / 71.2

 

November 9-16:

 

1. The Grinch - 81.7

2. Bohemian Rhapsody - 20.7 / 64.1

3. The Girl with Spider's Web - 15.8

4. The Nutcracker - 13.8 / 45.5

5. Overlord - 10.5

6. Nobody's Fool - 7.5 / 28.2

7. Halloween - 5.6 / 150.5

8. First Man - 4.5 / 80.7

9. A Star is Born - 3.8 / 138.7

10. Hunter Killer - 2.1 / 20.4

11. Suspiria - 1.3 / 6.0

12. Goosebumps 2 - 1.3 / 49.9

 

November 16-18:

 

1. Fantastic Beasts 2 - 74.4

2. The Grinch - 46.3 / 146.1

3. Instant Family - 27.5

4. Widows - 21.1

5. Bohemian Rhapsody - 12.4 / 83.6

6. The Girl with Spider's Web - 8.3 / 28.7

7. The Nutcracker - 7.3 / 57.5

8. Overlord - 6.3 / 20.6

9. Nobody's Fool - 3.7 / 34.5

10. First Man - 2.7 / 85.0

11. Halloween - 2.5 / 155.2

12. A Star is Born - 2.3 / 142.4

 

November 23-25:

 

1. Ralph Breaks the Internet - 48.8 / 74.3

2. Fantastic Beasts 2 - 40.9 / 135.8

3. The Grinch - 26.0 / 190.2

4. Creed 2 - 25.5 / 39.2

5. Instant Family - 15.6 / 55.0

6. Green Book - 12.1 / 18.4

7. Widows - 12.0 / 41.6

8. Robin Hood - 9.1 / 14.1

9. Bohemian Rhapsody - 7.2 / 95.5

10. The Girl with Spider's Web - 4.6 / 36.5

11. The Nutcracker - 4.1 / 64.4

12. Overlord - 3.0 / 25.8

 

November 30-December 2:

 

1. Ralph Breaks the Internet - 26.1 / 114.3

2. Fantastic Beasts 2 - 16.5 / 162.6

3. The Grinch - 12.8 / 211.5

4. Creed 2 - 12.0 / 58.8

5. Instant Family - 7.2 / 67.3

6. Green Book - 7.0 / 29.3

7. Widows - 6.1 / 51.5

8. Bohemian Rhapsody - 3.9 / 101.8

9. Robin Hood - 3.7 / 20.5

10. The Girl with Spider's Web - 2.1 / 40.2

11. The Nutcracker - 2.1 / 67.9

12. Overlord - 1.3 / 28.1

 

December 7-9:

 

1. Ralph Breaks the Internet - 17.0 / 139.4

2. Fantastic Beasts 2 - 9.7 / 177.3

3. The Grinch - 8.4 / 223.8

4. Creed 2 - 6.7 / 68.7

5. The Silence - 5.5

6. Green Book - 4.1 / 35.8

7. Instant Family - 3.9 / 73.5

8. Widows - 3.5 / 57.3

9. Bohemian Rhapsody - 2.0 / 105.1

10. Robin Hood - 1.6 / 23.3

11. The Girl with Spider's Web - 1.1 / 42.1

12. The Nutcracker - 1.0 / 69.7

 

December 14-16:

 

1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - 80.2

2. Mortal Engines - 32.1

3. The Mule - 15.3

4. The Second Act - 12.7

5. Ralph Breaks the Internet - 10.1 / 155.0

6. Fantastic Beasts 2 - 5.8 / 186.7

7. The Grinch - 4.9 / 231.7

8. Creed 2 - 3.9 / 75.0

9. Green Book - 2.5 / 40.0

10. The Silence - 2.3 / 9.7

11. Instant Family - 2.1 / 77.2

12. Widows - 1.9 / 60.7

 

December 21-23:

 

1. Mary Poppins Returns - 75.1 / 108.7

2. Aquaman - 55.8

3. Bumblebee - 50.7

4. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - 42.5 / 145.1

5. Mortal Engines - 15.4 / 57.6

6. Welcome to Marwen - 14.8

7. The Mule - 8.2 / 28.7

8. Second Act - 7.0 / 24.4

9. Ralph Breaks the Internet - 5.4 / 164.4

10. Fantastic Beasts 2 - 3.2 / 192.0

11. The Grinch - 3.0 / 236.5

12. Creed 2 - 2.3 / 78.8

 

December 28-30:

 

1. Mary Poppins Returns - 54.8 / 237.5

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - 49.3 / 251.0

3. Bumblebee - 44.6 / 160.9

4. Aquaman - 43.5 / 161.5

5. Holmes & Watson - 22.8 / 41.5

6. Welcome to Marwen - 20.2 / 55.7

7. Mortal Engines - 19.4 / 95.4

8. Vice - 14.8 / 26.2

9. The Mule - 10.7 / 50.1

10. Second Act - 9.8 / 45.0

11. Ralph Breaks the Internet - 7.2 / 180.4

12. Grinch - 4.9 / 247.1

13. Fantastic Beasts 2 - 4.7 / 201.7

14. Creed 2 - 3.5 / 86.1

15. Green Book - 2.2 / 46.7

16. Instant Family - 1.7 / 82.9

17. Widows - 1.5 / 66.7

 

January 4-6:

 

1. Mary Poppins Returns - 35.5 / 321.5

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - 28.6 / 312.5

3. Bumblebee - 23.2 / 215.6

4. Aquaman - 19.6 / 210.3

5. Holmes & Watson - 14.9 / 76.4

6. Welcome to Marwen - 12.7 / 86.5

7. Vice - 10.1 / 49.5

8. Mortal Engines - 9.3 / 119.4

9. The Mule - 6.7 / 66.4

10. Eli - 6.5

11. Second Act - 6.3 / 60.8

12. Ralph Breaks the Internet - 4.5 / 192.3

 

Edited October 10, 2018 by Viktor Vilotijevic

[Maxmoser3]

First Man: $24 million

Goosebumps 2: $14 million

Bad Times El Royale: $8 million 

 

[ACSlater]

Good for Venom. 

 

I thought it was okay but really want to see a sequel with you know who.

[WrathOfHan]

Venom: 32M

A Star Is Born: 24.8M

First Man: 22M

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween: 15M

Bad Times at the El Royale: 9M

Smallfoot: 8.5M

Night School: 6.2M

The House with a Clock in Its Walls: 3.8M

A Simple Favor: 2M

The Nun: 1.3M

[LegendaryBen]

1. Venom - $30.08M

It's going to drop 60%+ due to the loss of premium screens to FM, but its good WOM will prevent from a 70% drop (Fan4tastic type-drop)
2. A Star is Born - $26.26M

I'm being on the safe side on this one but I wouldn't be surprised if it held better especially if its Sunday is underestimated. I've been seeing many sellouts in ATL, NYC, and LA theaters today especially the night showings. The last time I saw this happen was Crazy Rich Asians.
3. First Man - $22.01M 

The breakout of the new releases this past weekend could hurt it, but the marketing is really good for it. I wouldn't be surprised if it opened much higher. Plus, it has all of its IMAX screens to itself for 3 weeks. 
4. Goosebumps 2 - $17.56M

The absence of Jack Black will hurt it but having the title Halloween in it could lure in Families for this one.
5. Smallfoot - $9.33M

New family competition, but will hold better after this upcoming weekend until Grinch.
6. Bad Times - $9.31M

Many other choices for adults and its marketing has been very confusing. 
7. Night School - $6.17M
8. House with Clock - $4.05M
9. A Simple Favor - $2.02M
10. The Nun - $1.33M 

Edited October 7, 2018 by LegendaryBen

[Viktor Vilotijevic]

Good word of mouth for "Venom"? Everybody hates it. But I love the descriptions that you gave. Great points overall!

[Ezen Baklattan]

1. Venom - $29.5m
2. A Star is Born - $24.8m
3. First Man - $22.5m
4. Goosebumps: Happy Halloween - $15.1m
5. Bad Times at the El Royale - $9.6m
6. Smallfoot - $9.3m
7. Night School - $6.8m
8. The House with a Clock in its Walls-  $3.6m
9. A Simple Favor - $2.3m
10. The Nun - $1.4m

[DAJK]

Really hoping first man doesn’t get lost in the shuffle. Anything below 25 I’d be disappointed in personally 

[Viktor Vilotijevic]

Is it just me or are we getting more push backs and switching dates than any other year, this December? Alitta pushed back to 2019, "Holmes" pushed back to Christmas day, "Second Act" pushed back to December 14th. "The Mule" and "Vice" landed wide releases. Even "Serenity" got pushed back to 2019 (I know it was October 19th originally).

[Impact]

This might be the 2nd year in a row where I wont see any films in September or October! Well the next film I will see-I'm not sure, maybe Ralph 2 or Fantastic Beasts 2. (Though surprisingly the Nutcracker looks good-never thought I say those words that I would want to see something titled The Nutcracker)

[Viktor Vilotijevic]

October 12-14:

 

1. A Star is Born - 29.8 / 96.0

2. Venom - 29.6 / 137.1

3. First Man - 22.6

4. Goosebumps 2 - 16.5

5. Smallfoot - 9.0 / 57.8

6. Bad Times at the El Royale - 8.1

7. Night School - 6.8 / 58.9

8. The House with Clock in it's Walls - 4.2 / 62.7

9. A Simple Favor - 1.9 / 52.6

10. The Nun - 1.2 / 115.8

11. Crazy Rich Asians - 1.1 / 171.5

12. The Hate U Give - 1.1/ 1.8

Edited October 11, 2018 by Viktor Vilotijevic