Wknd Estimates: Nolan = 50M | BH6 = 56M+(pg 72) (who cares, our forum lives!)

[Heat Vision]

So Avengers 2 OD > Interstellar Domestically?

Most likely

[kayumanggi]

Through Friday, 'Interstellar' has already earned $26.6 million overseas: http://t.co/3anYKeWzql pic.twitter.com/EOTXe8xAxw

— Box Office Mojo (@boxofficemojo)

November 8, 2014

[DAJK]

 

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

That's not a bad number is it? 75 by the end of the weekend? With 50DOM, 125WW OW?

[Rudolf]

Worst case 125, best case 165-170.

best case BB had a 2.8x factor after its first 5 days (I know those first 2 days were only previews, but Batman is way more popular than space operas)

so $147m best case

[straggler]

Memento, Sir.....Memento.

It was OK. 

[Kvikk Lunsj]

lol, hyperbole much. 

It would be pretty cool to see that happen. 

[TalismanRing]

That's not a bad number is it? 75 by the end of the weekend? With 50DOM, 125WW OW?

 

I think that's all markets though except China and Japan so good but not great. 

 

It would need a 3x multiplier from those markets, $25m in Japan and $100m in China to hit $350m O/S

 

China pre-sales also seem to be slower than expected and are severely lagging behind those of a local rom-com opening the day after.

Edited November 8, 2014 by TalismanRing

[#ED]

China is expecting decent to good numbers.

[#ED]

Rank & Title	IMDb Rating	Your Rating
	1. The Shawshank Redemption (1994)	9.2	RATE
	2. The Godfather (1972)	9.2	RATE
	3. The Godfather: Part II (1974)	9.0	RATE
	4. The Dark Knight (2008)	8.9	RATE
	5. Pulp Fiction (1994)	8.9	RATE
	6. The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (1966)	8.9	RATE
	7. Schindler's List (1993)	8.9	RATE
	8. 12 Angry Men (1957)	8.9	RATE
	9. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003)	8.9	RATE
	10. Fight Club (1999)	8.8	RATE
	11. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring(2001)	8.8	RATE
	12. Interstellar (2014)	8.8	RATE

 

[Dementeleus]

I agree about worst case, but what's up with that best case? It's a movie that skews older (a LOT): 75% over the age of 25. Isn't that supposed to assure good legs in most cases? That is around a 3.2x muliplier, hardly impressive for such a movie.

3.2x multiplier *is* good legs for a blockbuster these days, especially one without universal acclaim.

[AJG]

Looool TDK better than Pulp Fiction.

[TalismanRing]

China is expecting decent to good numbers.

 

It was expected but so far pre-sale #s are soft

 

pre-sale difference is just flat out funny~

 

at this moment: DGBMH2: 16,585 v Interstellar: 1445

 

[Rudolf]

That's not a bad number is it? 75 by the end of the weekend? With 50DOM, 125WW OW?

some OS weekends are 4-5 days (only Japan 2), so I doubt you can calculate times 3

Edited November 8, 2014 by Rudolf

[lilmac]

I was hoping for a better hold for Nightcrawler

 

Interstellar could end up #5 on biggest non-#1 debuts of all time.

 

If Dumb and Dumber 2 breaks out next weekend, Interstellar could be in trouble.  It needs to have a soft hold before Hunger Games.  I expect BH6 to have better legs and to beat out Interstellar domestically.  Interstellar: $215-225 ; BH6: $230-$240

[Kvikk Lunsj]

Looool TDK better than Pulp Fiction.

 

lol at Shawshank being number 1     That is the funniest thing about when TDK came out, Shawshank ended being number 1. 

[Fullbuster]

It was expected but so far pre-sale #s are soft

 

I was right to be suspicious..

[TalismanRing]

Looool TDK better than Pulp Fiction.

 

 

But of course, just like TDKR is better than Lawrence Of Arabia.

 

IMDB ratings are a Nolanite joke

[Deep Wang]

Cameron hadn't been able to build off his own name before that film either. Titanic was a big hit via tremendous legs.

 

Uh, yes he has.  Titanic poster mentions Aliens, T2, and True Lies.

 

You could much more easily attribute those to Schwarzenegger's rising starpower. And in that era, starpower was everything.

 

Cameron helped with the quality of the films. I really doubt he was a big draw himself, considering how The Abyss flopped.

 

The earliest memory I have of a directors previous efforts being mentioned was on the box for T2 mentioning The Abyss.  I am sure it had been done before, but I remember that very vividly even though I was only 12.

 

The point is Cameron was not always this God of filmmaking whose movies people would see regardless of what they were about. He had to build up that reputation to the point Avatar was able to open to $75 million+. Considering the success Nolan has already had with TDK and Inception, it wasn't all that unreasonable to hope for the same with Interstellar.

 

James Cameron has directed 7 movies.  3 of those were the highest grossing movies of their respective year.  True Lies was 3rd and Aliens was 7th.  

 

I love me some Nolan, but his credentials were boosted largely by Batman.  Cameron has done 2 sequels, but every thing else has been original.   That, in my opinion, makes his name go a lot further to selling a movie than Nolan's so far.  He doing good so far, but let's see when he gets a few more under his belt.

[TalismanRing]

I was hoping for a better hold for Nightcrawler

 

Interstellar could end up #5 on biggest non-#1 debuts of all time.

 

If Dumb and Dumber 2 breaks out next weekend, Interstellar could be in trouble.  It needs to have a soft hold before Hunger Games.  I expect BH6 to have better legs and to beat out Interstellar domestically.  Interstellar: $215-225 ; BH6: $230-$240

 

You're expecting a 4.3 multiplier for Interstellar and a better one than for BH6?  I don't think so.

[James]

3.2x multiplier *is* good legs for a blockbuster these days, especially one without universal acclaim.

Yeah, but when was the last time we had a heavily adult driven blockbuster, aside from Gravity? My point is, a 3x multi is good for a normal blockbuster (say TF, POTC etc), but not for a movie that skews so much older. I see it making a 4x. Well, we'll just have to wait and see.