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Official Weekend Est: MJ1 56.9M Penguins 25.8m BH6 18.77m Interstellar 15.8M

By Olive, in Numbers and Data

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Mojoguy Global Phenomenon

Mojoguy

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And I currently have it right around that OW expectation. Which means it could just barely get past 300 if it's not well received.

People will be disappointed when Finding Dory doesn't open as high as Toy Story 3. FN is no where NEAR as beloved as the TS franchise. :mellow:

Edited by Mojoguy
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Melvin Frohike Sleeper Hit

Melvin Frohike

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I can't  imagine DWA ever intended Penguins to be an "event" or huge grosser DOM. If they ever expected more than Puss in Boots then they clearly are completely out of touch.

I can easily imagine that they (really meaning Jeffrey Katzenberg) are out of touch. :) At this point they'd be thankful for Puss in Boots numbers, but this almost certainly won't happen so there will be no Thanksgiving for them.

 

125-140m should have been the range all along. Granted, it probably won't hit the low end of that range either now,

It's unlikely, and as for expectations, they wouldn't spend so much on movies that they expect so little out of (although in this case I wonder where all that money went). Some have argued that the Madagascar franchise has been growing, the Penguins are the most popular of the characters, and that audiences have been reacting very positively to the trailers, so I'm sure that somebody (albeit not many on this particular forum) believed that it would be a big hit, including DWA.

but it's certainly not some huge underperformer DOM the way Dragon 2 was.

Hmmm...I think that people--including DWA in their desperation--only began to expect so much of HTTYD 2 when Despicable Me 2 broke out last year (followed by the Frozen phenomenon and The Lego Movie doing very, very well). Otherwise, I think that expectations would have been more reasonable, and that the movie would not have "underperformed" nearly as much. Also keep in mind that by general standards for a major animated release it is a big hit WW and did alright DOM, relative to production budget, while PoM has been and very likely will be much more of an underperformer in this sense.

It's an OS franchise in the first place, and I'm sure it will be profitable WW.

I'm not nearly so sure. I had made the same assumption early on, but then somebody pointed out that its dialogue and humor may not translate well to non-English-speaking OS markets, and for all I know the Penguins might not generally be as well liked as the other characters OS.

 

Which is far more than I can say for Home which I fully expect to pull worse numbers than Turbo DOM and OS. And KFP3 might tank worse than Penguins DOM in next Holiday's marketplace. Penguins is the least of their concerns right now.

DWA's slate of upcoming animated features is one reason I have no trouble imagining that they are out of touch. They're still trying to reduce the cost of each movie, but even if they reach their target of $125M this still implies quite high expectations.

 

I'm just wondering... Dragon 2 had a TV series that ran for 2 years as well. Could it be that those bad TV series hurt the movie's run by turning people away?

That has been my theory, for what it's worth. It's easier to wait for the video to rent (especially with the short threatrical release windows of today) when you can get your fill in the meantime, and harder to justify the cost of taking the family for a night out at the movies.

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Ray G Indie Sensation

Ray G

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Dragons' TV series definitely wasn't bad enough to drive down any ticket sales. It's actually probably the best tie-in to an animated movie I've seen outside of Toy Story of Terror. The voices were the same, the animation was quality enough, and it had decent ongoing plots. 

 

I still blame the drop on the fact that the sequel tried to grow with its audience a la Harry Potter, but the audience didn't come with it and the sequel was too mature for the new kids. 

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Jonwo Global Phenomenon

Jonwo

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DWA's slate of upcoming animated features is one reason I have no trouble imagining that they are out of touch. They're still trying to reduce the cost of each movie, but even if they reach their target of $125M this still implies quite high expectations.

 

 

$125-135m is still higher than Blue Sky, Illumination, WB and Sony but outside of outsourcing all the animation to India and China, closing PDI or maybe reducing or cutting the perks, I'm not sure how they could cut costs further. 

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Melvin Frohike Sleeper Hit

Melvin Frohike

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There may be something to be said of the fact they were able to get Shrek 2 out just 3 years after the first. That's lightning speed in animation time, and I honestly don't know how they even did that and had it turn out as well as it did.

Sometimes when you happen to know exactly what you want to do, it can turn out to be both faster to make and better.

By the way, Frozen took less than three years to make after it got the green light, and aside from the ending the story was rewritten from scratch a little over one year before its release (talk about fast!).

Even Pixar needed 4 years for TS2 and they said they were crazy rushed for that movie.

But that was because as with Frozen the story sucked until they figured out what they wanted (and lots of what they didn't want), and then they had to work like crazy to finish it on time. The same is actually true of a number of well known animated features, including Beauty and the Beast, for example, which wasn't even a musical originally--this project took the customary four years overall, but at least half of that time was wasted on a version that went nowhere. The original director resigned, and the project was restarted as a musical with a totally different story that would later be nominated for Best Picture. :)

People will be disappointed when Finding Dory doesn't open as high as Toy Story 3. FN is no where NEAR as beloved as the TS franchise. :mellow:

Well, back in the day it was much bigger--just a huge craze that I personally didn't understand and still don't--so the question is whether it has held up as well as the Toy Story franchise over time, and how nostalgic the GA will be for it when the sequel is released. Personally, I'm not sure right now--it could go either way, but don't doubt the prominence of Finding Nemo in its time.

Dragons' TV series definitely wasn't bad enough to drive down any ticket sales.

It's not that any of these series is bad, it's that the demand for these characters and their adventures is relatively satiated because of them.

I still blame the drop on the fact that the sequel tried to grow with its audience a la Harry Potter, but the audience didn't come with it and the sequel was too mature for the new kids.

This could well be a big reason for what happened.

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Sal Box Office Gold

Sal

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Dragons' TV series definitely wasn't bad enough to drive down any ticket sales. It's actually probably the best tie-in to an animated movie I've seen outside of Toy Story of Terror. The voices were the same, the animation was quality enough, and it had decent ongoing plots. 

 

I still blame the drop on the fact that the sequel tried to grow with its audience a la Harry Potter, but the audience didn't come with it and the sequel was too mature for the new kids. 

 

You say that, but the folks I lived with were huge HTTYD fans and quit watching the TV show four episodes in.  They even gave away (or threw away) the dvds.

 

And surprise! They elected to wait on seeing HTTYD2 until they could watch it for free so they didn't "waste more money".

Edited by Sal
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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

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I don't want to join in, but I have to agree that this weekend pales in comparison to last Thanksgiving. I was hoping that we'd get a "2014's Frozen" by now.... come on Scott!

I've kind of been ignoring the Box Office this weekend, which I haven't really done since October... :(

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Dingdong123 Box Office Gold

Dingdong123

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Dragons' TV series definitely wasn't bad enough to drive down any ticket sales. It's actually probably the best tie-in to an animated movie I've seen outside of Toy Story of Terror. The voices were the same, the animation was quality enough, and it had decent ongoing plots. 

 

I still blame the drop on the fact that the sequel tried to grow with its audience a la Harry Potter, but the audience didn't come with it and the sequel was too mature for the new kids.

If you look at How To Train You Dragon 2's performance independently, it sure is a success. But the thing is that it was a sequel to one of dreamwork's most acclaimed properties. Not to mention that it was the ONLY animated tentpole last summer, and it didn't even hit 200M in the US even without direct competition. It's ought to do a bigger business there with everything perfectly aligning for it.

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Dingdong123 Box Office Gold

Dingdong123

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I don't want to join in, but I have to agree that this weekend pales in comparison to last Thanksgiving. I was hoping that we'd get a "2014's Frozen" by now.... come on Scott!

I've kind of been ignoring the Box Office this weekend, which I haven't really done since October... :(

Big Hero 6 declining very minimal despite direct competition is a good thing. At least we have that this Thanksgiving lol.

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The Panda Global Phenomenon

The Panda

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People will be disappointed when Finding Dory doesn't open as high as Toy Story 3. FN is no where NEAR as beloved as the TS franchise. :mellow:

Really?

Critically finding nemo has a 99% just like Toy Storys. It was also a much, much larger box office hit. Its a pop culture phenomenon, I don't know how large it'll be but finding nemo is just as if not more beloved by the GA as toy story.

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forg Box Office Gold

forg

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Finding Nemo merchandise is still omniprescent up to this day so that might indicate how it is beloved by the GA and kids today but then Cars is the top Pixar merchandise generator but the sequel didn't cross 200M so Dory's box office performance will rely  on the content. Marketing will be great for sure aside from Disney, Ellen DeGeneres will market this movie hard on her talk show to get the mom crowd as well

Edited by forg
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