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baumer

Wed #'s American Sniper (7.5 mill...RTH)

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Assuming AS stays flat today, its weekend numbers for the post MLK weekend if it follows:

 

Lone Survivor - 67M

ZD30 - 72M

 

Both those movies jumped 130-160% on Friday and 60-80% on Saturday. Assuming AS has burnt a lot of demand and only sees small jumps, say 100% on Friday and 40% on Saturday, and a 50% drop on Sunday, it will get a weekend of 48M. Basically 48M looks like it will be the floor for the weekend number. If it somehow performs like Lone Survivor despite opening 2 and a half times as big, then it will basically be an unprecedented run.

 

lol 67m would ensure 400m... I think it will do around 55m

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Youre going to have to give me a scenario where it makes 50 mill this weekend and misses 300. Its locked.

This.

 

The second weekend is heading to, at very least, $50m. and it will probably make more, probably 55 according weekdays. Let's say that it makes $55m and finishes weekend with $190m. So, it needs $110m to reach 300. Just imagine a $55 million opener that has to end with $165m, which means exactly a x3 multiplier. A movie with quite good WOM, as we have already seen, and awards season has locked a x3 multiplier. Just meh movies or teen blockbusters miss that multiplier. And that considering that we are not talking about a 55 million OW, but a second weekend. Drops should be better from now.

 

And another data: there is not any movie that had failed to reach $300m with a +$55m second weekend. The lower grosser is Harry Potter 1 with $317m.

Edited by peludo
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I would love to see a realistic breakdown of it missing 300M

 

It's as close to a lock as there is

 

 

It's supposed to be in  the 40's around here this weekend.  During winter that might as well be 80.  People will likely be going to the park for picnics and barbecues 

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top thrs AS Tue-Wed odd bunch :)

 

1-CS Warren 14, Moore OK   
2-AMC Empire 25, New York City NY 
3-Hark Superstition springs 25, Mesa AZ
4-Cobb Downtown at the Gardens 16, Palm Beach FL
5-CM Palace 20, Boca Raton FL
6-CPLX Scotiabank Toronto, Toronto ON (disc Tues, #1 tues)
7-Las Vegas South Point 16, Las Vegas NV
8-ST Palladium 18, San Antonio TX (#1 Weekend)
9-Regal Belltown 20, Fort Myers FL
10-AMC Lincoln Square, New York City NY 
11-Marcus Majestic 16, Brookfield WI
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top thrs AS Tue-Wed odd bunch :)

 

1-CS Warren 14, Moore OK   

2-AMC Empire 25, New York City NY 

3-Hark Superstition springs 25, Mesa AZ

4-Cobb Downtown at the Gardens 16, Palm Beach FL

5-CM Palace 20, Boca Raton FL

6-CPLX Scotiabank Toronto, Toronto ON (disc Tues, #1 tues)

7-Las Vegas South Point 16, Las Vegas NV

8-ST Palladium 18, San Antonio TX (#1 Weekend)

9-Regal Belltown 20, Fort Myers FL

10-AMC Lincoln Square, New York City NY 

11-Marcus Majestic 16, Brookfield WI

 

Hey, my theater, Marcus Majestic! It has been killing it on the Ultrascreen all week. .

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