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Mockingjay Raphael

Weekend Numbers SB: 56, AS 24.1, JA 19 pg 54

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Thoughts:

 

That opening for SpongeBob is crazy. I thought it would do well, but $56M? Wow.

American Sniper rebounded after getting hit a bit by the Super Bowl last weekend. It's going to blow past $300M next weekend. Incredible.

Jupiter Ascending did as well as expected though. The movie is a really horrible crapfest that might even miss the boat as a cult favorite, so it's likely to fade fast in the weeks ahead.

Seventh Son also did as well as expected given the poor reviews and how long it sat on the shelf.

Paddington has had a very nice little run and should finish with a solid $70-75M. The Imitation Game should reach $90M.
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Normally I'd say Cinemascores are worthless, but a B for a franchise kids movie is pretty low. Legs might not be so great. Still, it's nice to see a TV property have this much staying power.

Well it got an A- from those 18 and under (its key demo), so I doubt CinemaScore matters. All of the bad marks are probably from adults who loathed it. But Wolf of Wall Street got a C+ and it managed to develop a leggy run. 

 

With zero competition for 4 weeks, SpongeBob 2 should at the very least get a 3x. a 3.5x-3.7x more likely, but still. 

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2015 is going to be like 2012. You either do huge numbers or you flop. Not many in-between. 

 

I could definitely see this.

 

Although there's a couple where I think most everything can do decent enough

 

April

June

July

September

October

November

December 

 

So almost half the year will be an even split of hits and bombs 

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JA looked better than ALL of those movies.

 

Jupiter looked like John Carter redux level of inept. That's too strong a word. Creative misfire with stilted plot and bland actors trying to skate its way on special effects. Sounds like After Earth too. Maybe even Lone Ranger.

 

Can I honestly say I'm not all that shocked by SpongeBob 2's opening? From about September on, I've been getting some good vibes from this. 

 

Zero competition (Paddington's almost done)

Nostalgia from teens/young adults

Great marketing campaign by Paramount

Same release date as LEGO Movie which did $70 million its OW

 

I was expecting over $40 million for a while, although I wouldn't have been bold enough to say $56 million until Feb 4  :lol:

 

Hope Kingsman and 50 Shades can keep February on fire. 

 

Sometimes unrealistic expectations cannot be a barometer of whether a film is doing well. $56m OW is superb and surprising. 

 

Zero competition = How to Train Your Dragon 2

Nostalgia = Princess and the Frog

Great marketing campaign, I'll give you that, but to the tune of $56m? Look at what the original managed in its heyday. 

SpongeBob is not Lego. That's stupid. It's like saying Exodus should have grossed ROTK because same release date. 

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