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Best Supporting Actor predictions-2015

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52 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

^^^Kind of like Crowe winning for Gladiator after not winning for far superior work in The Insider a year earlier, no?

 

Crowe was better in The Insider, sure, but I'd say his Maximus is still one of the best star turns of the 2000s. People loved it, and it remains well-remembered today. I still haven't seen anyone rave about Keaton in Spotlight. I'm sure he's fine, but if he wins, I don't even know how they'll be able to pretend that he did it for any reason other than his Birdman snub. 

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44 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

 

Crowe was better in The Insider, sure, but I'd say his Maximus is still one of the best star turns of the 2000s. People loved it, and it remains well-remembered today. I still haven't seen anyone rave about Keaton in Spotlight. I'm sure he's fine, but if he wins, I don't even know how they'll be able to pretend that he did it for any reason other than his Birdman snub. 

Good food for though. I'll have to mull that over...

http://cdn.indiewire.com/dims4/INDIEWIRE/a2292f3/2147483647/thumbnail/680x478/quality/75/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fd1oi7t5trwfj5d.cloudfront.net%2Fe0%2F34%2Ffe2cec9b41478692346de2390435%2Fspotlight.jpg

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5 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Why?

Reviews are coming in and he's getting a ton of praise. Variety  and Vanity Fair even have articles discussing it's Oscar chances:

 

http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/sylvester-stallone-creed-oscars-best-supporting-actor-1201643278/

 

http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2015/11/creed-michael-b-jordan-sylvester-stallone-oscars

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I am very confident that Ruffalo, Rylance and Tremblay will be nommed. Aside of the great performances, they have other strong things on its side. Ruffalo has timing, BP contender, and he is a co-lead; Rylance is well respected, he is in a BP contender and he is the mvp of the movie; Tremblay is co-lead and a kid. They love to reward kids that give a resonant dramatic performance.

 

The other two spots are crazy to predict. Del Toro, Stallone, Elba, Hardy, Daniels, L Jackson, De Niro, Keaton, Russell... Who knows?

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Number of experts predicting a win/nomination on Gold Derby:

 

 

Michael Keaton: 7/19 (down 2 wins, down 1 nom)

Mark Ruffalo: 7/15 (up 4 wins, up 1 nom)

Mark Rylance: 2/17 (down 2 noms)

Tom Hardy: 2/9 (up 1 nom)

Paul Dano: 2/7 (down 1 nom)

Idris Elba: 1/16 (down 2 wins, down 2 noms)

Sylvester Stallone: 0/5 (new)

Jacob Tremblay: 0/5 (up 1 nom)

Benicio Del Toro: 0/3 (down 1 nom)

Robert De Niro: 0/2 (down 1 nom)

Joel Edgerton: 0/2 (down 3 noms)

Christian Bale: 0/1 (new)

Jason Mitchell: 0/1 (flat)

Jason Segel: 0/1 (flat)

Jason Statham: 0/1 (fucking Keith)

 

 

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The Spotlight ensemble was as good as everything I'd heard. I don't think the movie has a badly acted part.

 

But I'm still not convinced about either of the two nominees here. Ruffalo needed to be toned down just a smidge IMO, while Keaton's performance was capable but not best of the year of calibre. I'll take Rylance over both for now and have yet to see Stallone.

 

One interesting note: if Spotlight weren't already crowding the category, Liev Schreiber could get consideration. I thought he did a brilliant job as the quiet outsider with moral force in this movie. It was a small role but very well done.

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