Weekend 3/13-15 Official Estimates: Cinderella 70.1m, RAN 11m

[K1stpierre]

3.5x is quite a generous assumption.

Maleficent got it. Even Oz had a 3X. Cindy has to get something like 3.3-3.5 to me.

[sfran43]

At the moment on Movieticket.com Cinderella had 74% ticket sold vs Run all night 3% (Insurgent, Furious 7 and Marigold Hotel 2%).

 

At the show I saw yesterday afternoon (in Italy), there were mostly families with children under 10 years old, who seemed more interested (at least basing on their reactions) in Frozen that in Cinderella. After some time many of those were bored and  this was annoying for the adults who were seeing the movie.

 

I may be wrong, but that's the feeling I get from this movie, that it's geared more towards older kids and adults. 

[Kalo]

You are kiddin right? First it was 'Fault' and 'Edge', then HTTYD2 and Jump Street, then TF4 and so on. Maybe they are not all direct competition, but they are competition and they are way more than what Cinderella is gonna have.  

exactly 

[Jandrew]

Yall need to stop talking about WOM, atleast until Monday. You look silly. Less than 300,000 people saw Cinderella last night. If the movies gets to Maleficents level, then over 29 million people will see it. So its no where near enough people to talk about WOM. Also of that 300,000 how many actaully talked and tweeted about the movie?

Please stop. Im sure this movie will have good legs, but saying movie X is better recieved than movie Y, when movie X barely has came out yet, its just annoying. At least wait for the drops.

[K1stpierre]

Yall need to stop talking about WOM, atleast until Monday. You look silly. Less than 300,000 people saw Cinderella last night. If the movies gets to Maleficents level, then over 29 million people will see it. So its no where near enough people to talk about WOM. Also of that 300,000 how many actaully talked and tweeted about the movie?

Please stop. Im sure this movie will have good legs, but saying movie X is better recieved than movie Y, when movie X barely has came out yet, its just annoying. At least wait for the drops.

 

[Avatree]

Maleficent got it. Even Oz had a 3X. Cindy has to get something like 3.3-3.5 to me.

I know Maleficent did, that doesn't mean this will.

 

Maleficent: 3.48

Oz: 2.97

Alice: 2.88

Snow White: 2.76

 

It seems pretty clear that 3.5x is the very high end.

[DAJK]

3.5x is quite a generous assumption.

Honestly, I do think its quite doable. We dot really know what the WOM will be yet, but if the reviews indicate anything, it could get close to Maleficent multiplier. With nothing really for girls (Insurgent really is a different audience and Home won't do big business) I wouldn't be surprised if Cinderella made 280 off of a 80-85M debut weekend.

[Alpha]

Yall need to stop talking about WOM, atleast until Monday. You look silly. Less than 300,000 people saw Cinderella last night. If the movies gets to Maleficents level, then over 29 million people will see it. So its no where near enough people to talk about WOM. Also of that 300,000 how many actaully talked and tweeted about the movie?

Please stop. Im sure this movie will have good legs, but saying movie X is better recieved than movie Y, when movie X barely has came out yet, its just annoying. At least wait for the drops.

Eh, I'm kinda used to people jumping to conclusions now in the weekend thread.

Good numbers for Cinderella, I'm expecting something in the mid-70s.

[DAJK]

I know Maleficent did, that doesn't mean this will.

Maleficent: 3.48

Oz: 2.97

Alice: 2.88

Snow White: 2.76

It seems pretty clear that 3.5x is the very high end.

I don't think Oz and Alice are as good comparisons as Maleficent. They both had mixed audience reactions (Oz is "spilled" audience rating on RT). The only way I see Cindy getting less than a 3 multiple is if it ends up being front loaded on Friday, as if it were a sequel or an anticipated book adaptation.

[SchumacherFTW]

I miss the days when I thought that was an amazing show.

[DAJK]

Eh, I'm kinda used to people jumping to conclusions now in the weekend thread.

Good numbers for Cinderella, I'm expecting something in the mid-70s.

Jumping to conclusions is fun the best part about box office is the speculation based off of very little info!

[Cmasterclay]

Producing a high-quality live action Cinderella, by far the most famous princess, in the middle of this fairy tale renaissance is like having a license to print money. Thank goodness for theat- Disney really must be strapped for cash.

 

All jokes aside, Cinderella doing 80 million plus would pretty much ensure that every single month until August had an 80+ opener. That's fucking awesome, man. What a comeback year.

[K1stpierre]

I know Maleficent did, that doesn't mean this will.

 

Maleficent: 3.48

Oz: 2.97

Alice: 2.88

Snow White: 2.76

 

It seems pretty clear that 3.5x is the very high end.

Well quite frankly that's epic for Alice, considering it was a piece of crap. Snow white I saw coming

What this still tells me is that it still should get anywhere from lowest 3 to highest 3.5, which would think this could fall anywhere from 225-300. (lowest I think would be opening to 75M and only getting a 3X- opening at 85 and getting a 3.5).

[Jandrew]

Then Ill just go ahead and say it: Fast 7 has better WOM than Fast 6. But its not out for 3 weeks, how do I know this? I just do. Thats like...fact.

[K1stpierre]

Eh, I'm kinda used to people jumping to conclusions now in the weekend thread.

Good numbers for Cinderella, I'm expecting something in the mid-70s.

That's what makes these threads fun

[Avatree]

I don't think Oz and Alice are as good comparisons as Maleficent. They both had mixed audience reactions (Oz is "spilled" audience rating on RT). The only way I see Cindy getting less than a 3 multiple is if it ends up being front loaded on Friday, as if it were a sequel or an anticipated book adaptation.

We have no idea what the audience reaction is going to be though.

 

No competition? Insurgent very much appeals to the same demographic and sure, Home isn't going to be big, but it probably won't be a complete bomb either. That's the third weekend, where buzz will have died down by a large amount.

 

 

I'm not saying this is going to be bad or do badly or whatever btw. I'm just being a skeptic, it seems a bit silly to assume a 3.5x. Personally I doubt this will beat Maleficent. In my predictions at the start of 2015 I put it at 76/230/585 and I'm sticking with that.

[Kalo]

We have no idea what the audience reaction is going to be though.

 

No competition? Insurgent very much appeals to the same demographic and sure, Home isn't going to be big, but it probably won't be a complete bomb either. That's the third weekend, where buzz will have died down by a large amount.

 

 

I'm not saying this is going to be bad or do badly or whatever btw. I'm just being a skeptic, it seems a bit silly to assume a 3.5x. Personally I doubt this will beat Maleficent. In my predictions at the start of 2015 I put it at 76/230/585 and I'm sticking with that.

Fault appealed to the same audience as Maleficent and that didn't stop it. sure it will be some competition, but I have a feeling Cinderella is going to be really really loved by little girls. 

[ddddeeee]

Cinderell'a primary appeal is mothers and young girls, surely Insurgent's audience is exactly in between? I don't think they overlap as much as people think.

[K1stpierre]

Cinderella is going to be massive, I believe in it. It'll have good drops and I think it's going to attract a lot of kids to it, even if it feels geared towards older kids.

 

And of course not to mention, I could totally see girls drooling over Mr. Handsome over here......who SHOULD HAVE totally been the Christian Grey

 

 

 

Edited March 13, 2015 by K1stpierre

[Avatree]

You find that guy handsome?