Weekend Estimates: Insurgent 54m | Cinderella $34.5m pg 29

[TalismanRing]

With that drop it looks like Unfinshed Business is the Mortedecai of comedies

 

Wasn't Mortedcai supposed to be a comedy?

[Maxmoser3]

We need TA: AOU asap.

2015 $2,165.4 2014 $2,164.8

its changed now to $2,257

[DAJK]

I still think Cinderella is going to wind up close to 210M total. It's going to have really good 4th and 5th week drops, holding on like Maleficent did.

[CJohn]

So Insurgent continues the pattern of incredibly steady YA series. With a bit more competition, this will probably finish roughly 10M off the original.

Still think there might be sizable decreases for the final part. That last book is NOT liked.

The Breaking Dawn book was also brutally hated and we all know what happened.

[water]

divergent

previews->friday = 4.9m->22.8m = 4.65x

friday->weekend = 22.8m->54.6m = 2.39x

4.65x->2.39x = 0.52x

 

insurgent

previews->friday = 4.1m->21.3m = 5.20x

extrapolated (prev->fri)->(fri->wknd) = 5.20x*0.52x = 2.70x

extrapolated friday->weekend = 21.3m*2.70x = 57.5m

 

 

[Empire]

Well, the better movie won, of course.

I am not just laughing at what you said, but also that you care so much. Not sure why? Nobody else really seems to.

[kayumanggi]

THE SPONGEBOB MOVIE: SPONGE OUT OF WATER: $121.2M Overseas Total / $280M Global Total #SpongebobMovie

— BoxOffice (@BoxOffice)

March 22, 2015

[Alpha]

I am not just laughing at what you said, but also that you care so much. Not sure why? Nobody else really seems to.

 

That's how James rolls.

 

Also, that Insurgent estimate is definitely going to drop on Monday.

[Nutterbutter]

The Breaking Dawn book was also brutally hated and we all know what happened.

 

Allegiant is disliked in the Divergent series to a much higher degree than Mockingjay and Breaking Dawn were disliked in their respective series. Compare the Amazon ratings for each of the book series. Mockingjay and Breaking Dawn are each rated lower than their earliest installments but by less than half a star, on average. Allegiant is more than a full star below Divergent and Insurgent.

 

I think the Allegiant adaptations will suffer even more than that, though, because the Divergent series in general is not a household name phenomenon like Hunger Games nor did it take off and become a "thing" after the first movie like Twilight. Both of those factors helped mitigate the lesser appreciation for their final installments' source material. I don't think this franchise has that.

Edited March 22, 2015 by Nutterbutter

[Ando918]

I still think Cinderella is going to wind up close to 210M total. It's going to have really good 4th and 5th week drops, holding on like Maleficent did.

It is going to be difficult with 66% of the audience being female.  I would go with a domestic total somewhere 190-200.

[MrPink]

I am not just laughing at what you said, but also that you care so much. Not sure why? Nobody else really seems to.

 

James gotta celebrate  by being better in some metric

 

[SchumacherFTW]

It is going to be difficult with 66% of the audience being female. I would go with a domestic total somewhere 190-200.

Where's the snooze button on this guy?

[Ethan Hunt]

So is Insurgent being less front loaded on OW a good sign for legs in general?

[kayumanggi]

Year	Gross*	2015 % change	2014 % change	2013 % change	2012 % change	2011 % change	2010 % change
2015	$2,257.0	-	+4.3%	+15.1%	+2.2%	+17.6%	-7.6%
2014	$2,164.8	-4.1%	-	+10.4%	-2.0%	+12.8%	-11.4%
2013	$1,960.1	-13.2%	-9.5%	-	-11.2%	+2.1%	-19.8%
2012	$2,208.3	-2.2%	+2.0%	+12.7%	-	+15.0%	-9.6%
2011	$1,919.7	-14.9%	-11.3%	-2.1%	-13.1%	-	-21.4%
2010	$2,443.2	+8.2%	+12.9%	+24.6%	+10.6%	+27.3%	-

 

[TalismanRing]

Worldwide Box Office (Estimates) Weekend ending Mar 22

 

Title	Weekend BO Estimate			Weekend Cume Release			Distributor*
	Worldwide	International	Domestic	Worldwide	International	Domestic		# of Territories
Divergent Series: In...	$101,025,000	$47,000,000	$54,025,000	$101,025,000	$47,000,000	$54,025,000		77
Cinderella	$75,592,000	$41,100,000	$34,492,000	$253,141,134	$131,100,000	$122,041,134		46
Home	$19,200,000	$19,200,000		$19,200,000	$19,200,000			9
Taken 3	$18,600,000	$18,600,000		$312,886,642	$224,200,000	$88,686,642		6
Lost And Love	$16,285,000	$16,200,000	$85,000	$16,585,000	$16,500,000	$85,000		5
Kingsman: The Secret...	$13,100,000	$8,500,000	$4,600,000	$295,870,443	$181,300,000	$114,570,443		48
Focus	$11,200,000	$7,900,000	$3,300,000	$120,403,477	$71,000,000	$49,403,477		65
Run All Night	$10,120,000	$5,005,000	$5,115,000	$34,921,888	$15,200,000	$19,721,888		24
Chappie	$7,750,000	$5,100,000	$2,650,000	$71,604,439	$43,300,000	$28,304,439		70
Big Hero 6	$6,775,000	$6,600,000	$175,000	$644,772,305	$422,800,000	$221,972,305		21
Second Best Exotic M...	$6,650,000	$3,200,000	$3,450,000	$58,525,100	$34,400,000	$24,125,100		34
American Sniper	$6,645,000	$5,000,000	$1,645,000	$528,205,753	$184,200,000	$344,005,753		55
Gunman, The	$5,908,707	$900,000	$5,008,707	$5,908,707	$900,000	$5,008,707		9
Fifty Shades Of Grey	$5,593,955	$4,300,000	$1,293,955	$558,322,120	$394,500,000	$163,822,120		61
Spongebob Squarepant...	$5,550,000	$3,200,000	$2,350,000	$279,993,851	$121,200,000	$158,793,851		49
Whiplash	$3,056,778	$3,000,000	$56,778	$33,038,327	$20,000,000	$13,038,327		21
Night At The Museum:...	$2,900,000	$2,900,000		$351,172,282	$238,400,000	$112,772,282		6

 

[Ray G]

Allegiant is disliked in the Divergent series to a much higher degree than Mockingjay and Breaking Dawn were disliked in their respective series. Compare the Amazon ratings for each of the book series. Mockingjay and Breaking Dawn are each rated lower than their earliest installments but by less than half a star, on average. Allegiant is more than a full star below Divergent and Insurgent.

 

I think the Allegiant adaptations will suffer even more than that, though, because the Divergent series in general is not a household name phenomenon like Hunger Games nor did it take off and become a "thing" after the first movie like Twilight. Both of those factors helped mitigate the lesser appreciation for their final installments' source material. I don't think this franchise has that.

 

Yeah, Breaking Dawn mainly got sporked heavily by the outside audience, as it was the most mockable of the series. Mockinjay was fairly controversial, but I still think it's fairly well received.

 

Allegiant, on the other hand, a large section of the audience just flat-out despises the ending. 

[23IsEverywhere]

Yeah, Breaking Dawn mainly got sporked heavily by the outside audience, as it was the most mockable of the series. Mockinjay was fairly controversial, but I still think it's fairly well received.

 

Allegiant, on the other hand, a large section of the audience just flat-out despises the ending.

I just outright despised the whole book.  It felt kinda like

<s>the author had no idea what to do with this book.  The twist doesn't seem to fit in with what we know from the rest of the book.  And the author seemed to think that the only way to build any kind of drama was to have 4 and Tris constantly arguing.  Also it takes usually a few paragraphs to figure out whose point of view it is written from.</s>

 Mockingjay often seems to be the Return of the Jedi of its series.  Allegiant is the Godfather part 3 of the Divergent series.  I could see the 4th movie flopping after the 3rd loses most of the audience.

Edited March 22, 2015 by 23IsEverywhere

[alisson23]

So is Insurgent being less front loaded on OW a good sign for legs in general?

Yes, means that there is no urgency to see it. With monday's number, we will have a better notion.

[seegs]

I just saw Insurgent and I'm pretty confident that the only thing Allegiant will keep from the book is the ending because the Insurgent movie made a lot of changes so I'm not even sure what Allegiant will be about at this point... and I'm totally fine with that.

[ACSlater]

I will be contributing to the Kingsman bo this weekend in a bit...