mahnamahna Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 (edited) IO is down 28.6% Monday-to-Monday and dropped 50.5% from Sunday if numbers hold. Very fantastic!!! I hope it gets a sub-30% drop this weekend. It will. MI5 is tracking at $40 million Vacation is tracking at low-mid 30s for the 5 day (high teens-low 20s for the weekend) Everything else will be $15 million or less. Both openers target adults only. IO should be able to pull off a 20-25% drop fairly easily. Edited July 28, 2015 by mahnamahna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Anyone know what JWs Monday to Monday decline is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Anyone know what JWs Monday to Monday decline is? 35.16% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 I think $350m is definitely happening for IO. It'll be past $330m by the end of this weekend, and it's easily going to pass $340m by the time UNCLE/Compton open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Infernus Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 (edited) I think $350m is definitely happening for IO. It'll be past $330m by the end of this weekend, and it's easily going to pass $340m by the time UNCLE/Compton open. Yeah, 360m is the target now. If this indeed drops just around 25% or even less this weekend, that may start appearing possible too. Edited July 28, 2015 by Infernus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 350 is definately starting to look like it is in play for IO, 360 is still a stretch. if you take a very conservative take on its remaining run (80% of Toy Story 3) that would put it at 349. A more aggressive line like 10% over DM2 remaining run - which is what it is basically doing now would put it at 353. Interestingly, it could end up grossing more DOM then both American Sniper and Furious 7 - wouldn't have guessed that a few months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahnamahna Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 (edited) Yeah, 360m is the target now. If this indeed drops just around 25% or even less this weekend, that may start appearing possible too. If it follows its typical weekdays/weekends, it should end up with $5.5-6 million this weekend, especially since MI5 and Vacation don't have appeal with families like JW, Minions, Ant-Man or Pixels do/did. If IO can hold well against all of that competition, I don't see how it doesn't hold phenomenally against mild competition. The last 3 weekends, there's been competition for IO to compete with and it's managed 42%, 36% and 34% against all three. This is its first non-holiday weekend without any competition for families. I doubt it would have a bigger drop than last weekend, even if it loses 200-300 more theaters (could be 100-150 since MI5/Vacation don't seem super-huge) So sub-30% drop is almost a lock, going by a $1.4-1.6 million Tuesday, and $2-2.1 million over Wed/Thurs. Definitely less than 35% - it might even start having sub-30% drops until after Labor Day since Shaun and Underdogs could very well have sub-$10 million OWs. And Pixels/Minions will have mostly died off by August 7th (sub-$10 million weekends) The BO as a whole is extremely top-heavy though. It is sad that we'll likely only see four $200 million+ DOM grossers this summer unless MI5 or F4 explode at the BO. only 10 $200 million+ DOM grossers for the year would be slightly disappointing considering how hyped 2015's BO was. Edited July 28, 2015 by mahnamahna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Planodisney Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 IO definitely has at shot at 360. Not a lock but a very good shot if it keeps,these drops up. Just to show you what Minions is up against trying to maintain against IO, Minions had it best drop of 46%. IO's 3rd Monday drop was 28%. After Minions 1st Thursday it was overal tracking almost 35 million ahead of IO. After this weekend, just 2 weeks, it could be down to between 5-7. That under 50% drop for Minions is an encouraging sign that it's middle and late legs aren't going to completely collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenedictL11 Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 (edited) For now, $350M is a lock for IO. It's 47% above Brave's trajectory. If it follows that path, it will be at $349.7M. Brave's WOM was not even as good as IO. I'd say low to mid 350s is my prediction but $360M is in play especially if it holds fantastically for the rest of the summer. Edited July 28, 2015 by BEEJAYGRAD11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahnamahna Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 (edited) For now, $350M is a lock for IO. It's 47% above Brave's trajectory. If it follows that path, it will be at $349.7M. Brave's WOM was not even as good as IO. I'd say low to mid 350s is my prediction but $360M is in play especially if it holds fantastically for the rest of the summer. Best-case for IO: $6 million ($331 million) $4.5 million ($339 million) $3 million ($344 million) $2.5 million ($347 million) $2 million ($349 million) $2.75 million/$3.5 million ($353 million) $1.5 million ($355 million) $1 million ($356 million) $0.5 million ($357 million) $2-3 million from dollar-theater run ($359-360 million) That's really a best-case scenario, though. $353-355 million is my more conservative guess unless it has sub-25% drops until post-Labor Day. Edited July 28, 2015 by mahnamahna 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 (edited) 350 is definately starting to look like it is in play for IO, 360 is still a stretch. if you take a very conservative take on its remaining run (80% of Toy Story 3) that would put it at 349. A more aggressive line like 10% over DM2 remaining run - which is what it is basically doing now would put it at 353. Interestingly, it could end up grossing more DOM then both American Sniper and Furious 7 - wouldn't have guessed that a few months ago. That's true. IO could go over F7. AoU and JW have, SW will. MJ2 should go over too. So that puts F7 at #6. Also it means top 6 of 2015 would all be above the biggest grosser of 2014 (Sniper). EDIT: I FORGOT ABOUT JW...GOD. DON'T BAN ME. Edited July 28, 2015 by a2k 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 That's true. IO could go over F7. AoU has, SW will. MJ2 should go over too. So that puts F7 at #5. Also it means top 5 of 2015 would all be above the biggest grosser of 2014 (Sniper). Furious 7 might not even make the top 5. since it seems like you errr forgot a movie there. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 (edited) Furious 7 might not even make the top 5. since it seems like you errr forgot a movie there. My heart skipped a beat when I realized it. Edited July 28, 2015 by a2k 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 That's true. IO could go over F7. AoU and JW have, SW will. MJ2 should go over too. So that puts F7 at #6. Also it means top 6 of 2015 would all be above the biggest grosser of 2014 (Sniper). EDIT: I FORGOT ABOUT JW...GOD. DON'T BAN ME. Too late for that. Bye. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Craig Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Monday to Monday drop for Ant-Man is very good. It could have a good hold this weekend especially if MI5 does not break out big. Agreed. I hope that A-M has a solid 3rd weekend in spite of MI:5 which I do hope breaks out. I just re-watched the first one Netflix streaming....wow, does Tom look young!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobysaurus Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 That's true. IO could go over F7. AoU and JW have, SW will. MJ2 should go over too. So that puts F7 at #6. Also it means top 6 of 2015 would all be above the biggest grosser of 2014 (Sniper). EDIT: I FORGOT ABOUT JW...GOD. DON'T BAN ME. In before some smartass comment saying "you forgot JW because it's obviously a very forgettable movie" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Too late for that. Bye. What Mr. Pink told you when you tried to join the Nolan club. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExcelFTW Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Black Mass will explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Infernus Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 What Mr. Pink told you when you tried to join the Nolan club. Uh Oh... you've gone to the forbidden territory with this one a2k. Be prepared for the incoming Wrath! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_logo_svg.thumb.png.aa769110ca83b106ca249115c9f5dd5f.png){kind=logo}
