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Asyulus

Not So Fantastic Weekend Thread | MI5 29.4, F4 26.2, Gift 12, Ricki 7, Shaun 4, Vac 9, AM 7.8

By Asyulus, in Numbers and Data

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terrestrial Global Phenomenon

terrestrial

Posted
Posted

Marvel is having a pretty mediocre year. MI5 to win the weekend.

 

Aehm, that is really - again - a IMHO very wrong interpretation of their BOs

 

Im waiting for Rth's number

 

But still you had to 'grab' gopher's very early first impression and start a thread again....

 

 

Aou and Ant-man can below expect and neither got great reviews. Now FF hurting the the Marvel brand.

 

Aehm, not correct.

 

Only bcs shortly before the release s few pros (and too many of the BOfans here) adjusted their earlier estimates to higher numbers doesn't mean the not-too-hyped-up people watching the business expected the same

E.g. Ant-Man's forecast for OW and end-result at BO.com::

Ant-Man Jul 17, 2015 Disney $58,000,000 $147,000,000

Bad reviews?

Avengers 2: 1 May 2015 RT: 74% av.6.7 (aud.4.2/5 – 87% liked it)

Ant-Man: 17 July 2015, RT:79% av.6.8 (aud.4.2/5 – 91% liked it)

Pro reviews: It's less than Avengers 1 reached, but not 'bad'

Audience reports: Avengers 1 reached 4.4/5 - 91% liked it

 

so gopher was wrong again. This is a better number and could bring it on 40 million opening

 

You are aware about gopher living in another time-zone?

He (?) seems to give early impression based on one coast/region/.... and he and rth both adjusts, when more data gets available. Depending on the coast, and also CAN details like them having no cheap Tuesday, other public holidays.... if a movie is aimed on certain age-groups,... a movie can 'behave' atypical or differently depending on region too.

Like a critical movie about something typical for one region might have strongly different results/success in states without that said problem...

 

You're not gonna get a sudden 90% decline. But the decline is there, and it's not a minor one. 

 

Please be aware about long waited for 1st installments - or in case of Avengers 1 - finally first meets of a team.... not being the norm nor those records being expected by any not-fan-of-a-genre/franchise.... to get broken again all the time

Cinema admissions in general are seemingly in decline in regions with since longer times established cinema-going traditions. In regions like China, that still build several thousans new cinemas per year in regions they never had them at all or only a few or not that good of a quality... those get still increases. A part of the income-increase percentages in the US / .... are also based on the increased ticket averages and so on, what I am sure you know, but might have forgotten in the case of a not-loved genre ;)

 

FC rescued XM following a movie that made $220+ Dom.

FF/XM would have a bigger chore.

Plus, I question how good a story is available for these two groups getting together.

 

X-M 3 had a good BO result, but bad WOM. That hurt X-M First Class IMHO a lot. DoFP was able to improve the X-M reputation further, if they really should rikk that...?

Not a fan of FF with FOX for complete other reasons than mentioned here till now...

 

Didn't Jurassic Park 3 show a decline for that franchise?

 

More time in between, more hunger for the new one and..... I think not directly compareable, especially as I think there is not so much ... clustering with other movies of a similar genre. As Jurrassic.... is to me in a way it's own sub-genre

 

But I guess the same old shit for 10 years is great and everyone loves it (can't complain much, so far I like their movies, even if they take 0 risks). 

 

That I do not agree to at all. They spend from early on a lot of money and alsone the idea to combine a 'Shakespearean' (sp.?) Thor with CA 1 with.... I think took a lot of balls. How their movies turn out, ... how critics or GA will react to it... that they couldn't know beforehand. I think the most studios... wouldn't have changed the genre-mixtures like they do neither.

Beside that: 2008-2015 isn't 10years, till they learn the GAs reactions at least some movies are already in the making, so the changes they learned the need to do should not turn up before at least 3 to 4 years later (as they have to adjust the complete world)

 

It was the MCU fanboys. GA doesn't care about changes. They don't even know anything about the comics lol. 

 

Again: do not agree. I followed e.g at IMDb some of the loudest back, means I took a look at their posting histories, a not small percentage seemed to not even be CBM fans (no matter of DC or Marvel), but simply racists.

At least some of the posters, who also mentioned in posts to have never even been in a cinema, but felt the need to protest the casting.... seem to be gamer who learned about casting via their platforms and reacted IMHO very badly / immature too.

My personal opinion too wasn't a good one about the casting, but not because of race but the age-range. I doubted based on that real mature behavior... in the script and have in general some not happy feelings about e.g. experienced surgons played by actors looking like 20y old....

 

CJohn's post ~ 6:25 o'clock

Lol. So you are saying that instead of Marvel there was any other brand behind those movie they would bomb? I can't right now.

 

I think you might have misunderstood something, my conclusion out of the post was another one. ....

 

CJohn's post 5:26

2.7M should lock 30M weekend. With a 80M DOM total and 170-190M OS it will turn into profit.

 

For me only the budget to ww end-result counts (with a sharp eye on China's results, if its a high percentage of the OSs an MP of 2.2 is not enough)

 

According to the Hollywood Reporter FF's budget is $120m (I also read $122m). I calculate a need for at least an MP of 2.2, ignoring advertising... as it gets usually counterbalanced by selling TV-rights, HV,.... means under $264m I see not a chance for making any money.

As the merchandise rights here are also not looking like they'll earn with their percentages a lot of additional money (means I think the MP might need to be higher than MP 2.2) I highly doubt they'll see an ww of $250m to $270m as something 'profit-able'

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CoolioD1 Global Phenomenon

CoolioD1

Posted
Posted

Why on earth would Box Office Mojo be predicting a $45 million opening for this film? That is such a detached analysis based on the events of the last 24 hours.

And that mission impossible drop prediction too. more like...

 

... Botched Office Mojo

deniro_wideweb__470x292,0.jpg

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grim22 Global Phenomenon

grim22

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:unsure:

I love it. Liked it more than TDKR.

I hated Watchmen when I saw it in theaters, hated it a lot actually. A few years later, it was on HBO or something and I just decided to rewatch it, loved it so much I now own the steel book. Really no idea why my theatrical experience was so different from my later viewings.

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MinaTakla Box Office Gold

MinaTakla

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Posted

I hated Watchmen when I saw it in theaters, hated it a lot actually. A few years later, it was on HBO or something and I just decided to rewatch it, loved it so much I now own the steel book. Really no idea why my theatrical experience was so different from my later viewings.

 

I love watchmen too, one of the better superhero films I've seen. No way near TDK of course but pretty solid.

Oh and I liked Man of Steel too :D

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