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WrathOfHan

Weekend Estimates: War Room 9.35 | SOC 8.8 | Walk 8.25 | MI 7.15 | Transporter 7.13 | Escape 5.4 | Gallo 3.4

By WrathOfHan, in Numbers and Data

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terrestrial Global Phenomenon

terrestrial

Posted
Posted

newest long-range forecast of BO.com, includes all here mentioned upcomming movies

 

Our Brand Is Crisis Oct 30, 2015 Warner Bros. $9,000,000 $31,000,000
Jem and the Holograms Oct 23, 2015 Universal $7,000,000 $17,000,000
Rock the Kasbah Oct 23, 2015 Open Road $9,000,000 $35,000,000
Burnt Oct 23, 2015 Weinstein Company $9,000,000 $27,000,000
The Last Witch Hunter Oct 23, 2015 Lionsgate / Summit $17,000,000 $42,000,000
Goosebumps Oct 16, 2015 Sony / Columbia $18,000,000 $59,000,000
Bridge of Spies Oct 16, 2015 Disney / DreamWorks $19,000,000 $75,000,000
Crimson Peak Oct 16, 2015 Universal $19,000,000 $57,000,000
Steve Jobs Oct 9, 2015 Universal $21,000,000 $77,000,000
Pan Oct 9, 2015 Warner Bros. $19,000,000 $57,000,000
The Martian Oct 2, 2015 Fox $46,000,000 $172,000,000
The Walk Sep 30, 2015 Sony / TriStar $16,000,000### $64,000,000
Hotel Transylvania 2 Sep 25, 2015 Sony / Columbia $39,000,000 $128,000,000
The Green Inferno Sep 25, 2015 BH Tilt / High Top $4,000,000 $8,000,000
The Intern Sep 25, 2015 Warner Bros. $14,000,000 $48,000,000
Captive Sep 18, 2015 Paramount $5,500,000 $14,000,000
Everest Sep 18, 2015 Universal $19,000,000# $55,000,000
Black Mass Sep 18, 2015 Warner Bros. $20,000,000 $68,000,000
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials Sep 18, 2015 Fox $48,000,000 $130,000,000
Sicario Sep 18, 2015 Lionsgate $9,000,000## $30,000,000
The Perfect Guy Sep 11, 2015 Sony / Screen Gems $13,000,000 $34,000,000
The Visit Sep 11, 2015 Universal $17,000,000 $29,000,000

# expands September 25
## expands October 2
### expands October 9

 

http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-09-long-range-forecast-our-brand-is-crisis

 

the older long-range forecast that includes the reasoning for The Martian is here to find

http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-08-long-range-forecast-the-martian

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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Posted (edited)

Everest continues to be underpredicted. The marketing has been fantastic and having seen it I'm fairly sure the movie will get good WOM from the GA. Can't see it missing 100. I actually like the idea of the MI4 treatment for its release too, since it allows a great chance for WOM to really build like what happened with that. 

Edited by MovieMan89
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babz06 Box Office Gold

babz06

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Posted (edited)

I think BO.com is over-predicting The Intern, and The Walk

 

 

Sep/Oct dramas:

Black Mass: 28/90m

Captive: 5m/13m

Everest: 18m/70m

The Intern:14m/36mm

Sicario: 13m/35m

The Martian: 45m/140m

The Walk: 15m/40m

Steve Jobs: 20m/75m

Bridge of Spies: 22m/80m

Burnt: 11m/30m

Rock the Kasbah: 8m/24m

Our Brand is Crisis: 19m/65m

Edited by babz06
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grim22 Global Phenomenon

grim22

Posted
Posted

The Walk is going all-in on IMAX and PLF. The theater near me has a special IMAX 3D screening on Saturday with an ad being filmed of reactions immediately afterward. Signed up for it, doubt if I will go though.

They are obviously expecting the large format visuals to be amazing.

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

Posted
Posted

The Walk is going all-in on IMAX and PLF. The theater near me has a special IMAX 3D screening on Saturday with an ad being filmed of reactions immediately afterward. Signed up for it, doubt if I will go though.

They are obviously expecting the large format visuals to be amazing.

Sony is doing nothing for it right now. They are truly riding on the amazing WOM from the IMAX 3D shows starting on September 30. 

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

Posted
Posted (edited)

I think Sony's marketing is on HT2 at the moment.

Well, they should start focusing on creating hype for The Walk. The market is gonna turn into a bloodbath soon for movies targeting adults. Edited by CJohn
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mahnamahna Box Office Gold

mahnamahna

Posted
Posted (edited)

Everest continues to be underpredicted. The marketing has been fantastic and having seen it I'm fairly sure the movie will get good WOM from the GA. Can't see it missing 100. I actually like the idea of the MI4 treatment for its release too, since it allows a great chance for WOM to really build like what happened with that. 

If it were released August 28th instead of sandwiched in between 7-8 adult-skewing films with relatively high GA appeal, I would agree. The amount of competition could cause it to do $70-90 million DOM instead. Regardless, Universal's had a phenomenal year, so anything else they make is just gravy  :lol:

 

Pan and Everest really would have been perfect for August this year. Minions/Shaun/IO were pretty much dead by August 7th, which would have opened up space for a new kids movie. And F4 falling flat left room for a mid-level tentpole to break out. Those two releasing in August would have helped out considerably with attendance. 

 

My guess for Fall 2015

  1. The Martian: $225 million 
  2. Hotel Transylvania 2: $130 million
  3. The Maze Runner 2: $125 million 
  4. Bridge of Spies: $115 million 
  5. Steve Jobs: $110 million 
  6. Goosebumps: $100 million 
  7. Everest: $95 million 
  8. Black Mass: $80 million 
  9. Crimson Peak: $70 million 
  10. The Walk: $65 million 
  11. Pan: $55 million 
  12. Paranormal Activity - The Ghost Dimension: $50 million 
  13. The Intern: $45 million 
  14. The Last Witch Hunter: $40 million 
  15. Our Brand is Crisis: $35 million 
Edited by mahnamahna
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terrestrial Global Phenomenon

terrestrial

Posted
Posted

Hmm curious to see the comparison between BO.com's forecast and the studios estimates of today / finals tomorrow

for convenince...

Top 10 Forecast

BoxOffice is forecasting a $69 million tally for the top ten films over the four-day portion of the extended Labor Day weekend. That would mark a 36 percent decline from 2014's $107.2 million four-day Labor Day weekend (which notably fell one week earlier on the calendar than it does this year).

Check out our complete four-day weekend forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor 4-Day Weekend Domestic Total through Monday, September 7
Straight Outta Compton Aug 14, 2015 Universal $11,800,000 $150,700,000
War Room Aug 28, 2015 Sony / TriStar $10,800,000 $26,100,000
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation Jul 31, 2015 Paramount $9,800,000 $182,900,000
The Transporter Refueled Sep 4, 2015 EuropaCorp Films $8,800,000 $8,800,000
No Escape (2015) Aug 26, 2015 Weinstein Company $6,700,000 $19,800,000
A Walk in the Woods Sep 2, 2015 Broad Green Pictures $6,100,000 $7,300,000
The Man from U.N.C.L.E. Aug 14, 2015 Warner Bros. $3,900,000 $39,800,000
Sinister 2 Aug 21, 2015 Focus / Gramercy $3,800,000 $24,100,000
Ant-Man Jul 17, 2015 Disney $3,700,000 $174,000,000
Minions Jul 10, 2015 Universal $3,600,000 $329,500,000
Inside Out (2015) Jun 19, 2015 Disney $3,500,000 $348,600,000
Hitman: Agent 47 Aug 21, 2015 Fox $3,400,000 $20,900,000
The Gift (2015) Aug 7, 2015 STX Entertainment $3,300,000 $40,300,000

 

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