FINDING DORY | 542.3 M overseas ● 1028.6 M worldwide

[Fullbuster]

2 minutes ago, Quigley said:

 

 NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Dory HAS to become the biggest animated film of all time WW. Obviously I won't complain about $1B, but seriously? I'll admit that ER will make it tough but that's what Zootopia made. It HAS to out-gross Zootopia. In EVERY. SINLGE. COUNTRY. NO. EXCUSES.

Only if it's a great movie! We still don't know that..

[Quigley]

36 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

Only if it's a great movie! We still don't know that..

Fair enough

[Jason]

I think people are underestimating just how much the US dollar has strengthened over the past few years.

 

Against the trade-weighted basket of currencies, US dollar has strengthened 18% since early 2014 (Frozen) and 15% since June 2010 (TS3). It is roughly on par with the US dollar of June 2003 (Finding Nemo), about 1.7% weaker.

 

Using the trade-weighted basket, Frozen's OS gross would be $741M in 2016 USD, instead of $876M. I also did an individual breakdown for all territories with available data. The total for those territories in 2016 USD was $724M, instead of $843M. This result is roughly the same as using the trade-weighted basket. (This is not a random coincidence: with the major exception of Canada, countries in the basket have roughly comparable ratios of US trade as their proportion of worldwide box office.)

 

My estimate for Finding Dory's OS gross is $800M. This would have been ~$950M in early 2014.

Edited June 2, 2016 by Jason

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, Quigley said:

 

 NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Dory HAS to become the biggest animated film of all time WW. Obviously I won't complain about $1B, but seriously? I'll admit that ER will make it tough but that's what Zootopia made. It HAS to out-gross Zootopia. In EVERY. SINLGE. COUNTRY. NO. EXCUSES.

 

its impossible to even come close to zoo's gross in china. But other markets should be in play including Japan. Nemo grossed 102m in Japan and nostalgia will help big time for sure.

[cannastop]

8 hours ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

 

So no other animated movie after that will top Frozen?........lol, give me a break.  

 

What about Moana? Despicable Me 3? The Incredibles 2?

 

You're just saying that because you love that movie so much....and don't want anything to top it. Now i know why you're called "Mojoguy."

 

Something will top Frozen. It may not be this.....but something will in the future.....count on it.

I don't think any of those have a chance at Frozen's record. I even doubt Despicable Me 3's Billion chances.

[keysersoze123]

Incredibles 2 will definitely make a play for the record for sure. its audience is kids and adults. Rest will not come close.

[ttr]

 

its impossible to even come close to zoo's gross in china. But other markets should be in play including Japan. Nemo grossed 102m in Japan and nostalgia will help big time for sure.

Howcome it is impossible? Because Nemo is Pixar instead of WDAS? Because of quality or subject? I don't think anybody saw ZOO making that much in (except maybe@cannastop [emoji6]), so why not Nemo? I wonder if Disney can somehow make use of the opening of the Shanghai Park in the marketing...

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, ttr said:

Howcome it is impossible? Because Nemo is Pixar instead of WDAS? Because of quality or subject? I don't think anybody saw ZOO making that much in China (except maybe@cannastop ), so why not Nemo? I wonder if Disney can somehow make use of the opening of the Shanghai Park in the marketing...

Nah, trust me. Literally no one foresaw Zootopia's journey in China. They didn't even know Zootopia was even going to be released in China until late January.

 

In fact, part of Zootopia's success in China was that it wasn't hyped up beforehand.

Edited June 3, 2016 by cannastop

[MinaTakla]

Despicable Me 3 is probably going to make 1.05 billion. Not more, not less. I see it in the 290-300 DOM (because of its 10-day gross having 8 vacation days out of 10 days) and around 720-750 OS for a total of around 1.05 billion, less than Minions by around 100 million due to weak ER.

As for Nemo, I think 750-800m OS is a reasonable outcome, for a total of 1.2 billion. It may come close to Frozen, but it will be up to Japan to determine whether this blows up past 800m OS or not.

No anmated films ever crossed 800m OS except Minions and Frozen. It's not impossible but due to ER, that becomes tougher now.

[Agafin]

My personal forecast:

 

North America (US & Canada): The first one did $339m in its first run (well over $500m adjusted). I see $430m for this one. Finding Nemo was widly beloved so unless this sucks, I can't see it grossing less than Inside Out which was a 100% original property. This one got that nostalgia which pushed both JW and SW to high levels last year. A performance similar  to Toy Story 3 is about what I expect. $125m OW / $430m DOM. If it gets super good reviews and WOM, then it could certainly challenge Shrek 2's 12 year animated record.

 

Europe: Nemo was absolutely huge here, much bigger than any other Pixar property (including Toy Story). It generated about $280m in 2003 (with slighly better ER than today). In France, I see it selling about 7.2-7.7m tix (the first was sold nearly 10m) which would be about $50-55m (assuming it has a similar ticket price to Zootopia. Germany should be good for 5.0 to 5.5m tix (about $55m). The UK is generally similar to DOM so I expect about £55m ($80m) which is the equivalent of a $430 to $440m DOM performance. Spain will probably do a bit less than the original did in 2003 since the market has somewhat contracted. Still, something like $25m should happen. Italy is usually similar to Spain (though slightly) lower, so $22m or so (both of which are lower than the original). Overall, I see a small increase from the previous one to about $325m.

 

Asia: The first did about $120m here. Japan should be good for $100m to $105m which would be similar to what both sw7 and Alice did here (adjusting to today's exchange rates) so that seems like some kind of ceiling for Disney movies (not named Frozen). Pixar isn't huge in China but seeing the performance of Angry Birds, I can tell that they love their talking animals there so it should still be capable of having a decent run despite the competition, I predict $65-75m (that would be far bigger than most Pixar offerings here). Hong Kong loves Pixar and the market is quite bigger than it was in 2003. $10m should happen. Russia just like its Asian counterparts is fond of talking animals (judging by the performance of Zootopia, Ice Age, Madagascar etc) so I expect $20m. All the other smaller markets like Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore should also increase big time from the first time due to market expansion. I expect $250m from the entire region.

 

Latin America: The original was huge accross this region, I expect a sizable increase (despite the weak currencies). Mexico and Brazil should be huge just like they were for the first one. $30m from Mexico and $25m from Brazil wouldn't surprise me. Assuming these two account for about 55-65% of the region like they usually do, $95m is possible here.

 

Oceania: Just like the UK, Aus should be similar to DOM so around AUS$45m (US$32m) and NZ should do a sixth of that ($5.5m). The whole region should end up just shy of $40m.

 

Overall: $430 DOM + $710 OS = $1140m.

 

If it's a great movie, I hope it does more.

Edited June 5, 2016 by Agafin

[Finnick]

I would love to see Dory crossing the 1B mark. Lets be realist, the trailers didn't show much. Unless Pixar are hiding a really interesting story with twists, comedy and heart. It would be really hard to achieve such a milestone with currency change rate hitting bottom and the super saturated movie market. Just want to say to not get your hopes too high.

Edited June 5, 2016 by Finnick

[Quigley]

6 hours ago, Agafin said:

My personal forecast:

[...]

Latin America: The original was huge accross this region, I expect a sizable increase (despite the weak currencies). Mexico and Brazil should be huge just like they were for the first one. $30m from Mexico and $25m from Brazil wouldn't surprise me. Assuming these two account for about 55-65% of the region like they usually do, $95m is possible here.

[...]

 

Can't it get closer to $150M? Ice Age 4 made about $200M. Have the ERs dropped very badly?

[cannastop]

8 minutes ago, Quigley said:

 

Can't it get closer to $150M? Ice Age 4 made about $200M. Have the ERs dropped very badly?

Yes, the exchange rate has changed very much.

 

The Argentinian, Brazilian and Mexican currencies are all much weaker now than they were a few years ago.

 

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/argentina/currency

 

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/currency

 

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/mexico/currency

Edited June 6, 2016 by cannastop

[Purple Minion]

More than badly. Since June 2012, these are the drops from main markets:

• Peru sol: 25%
• Mexico peso, Chile peso: 37.5%
• Colombia peso: 70%
• Brazil real: 80%
• Argentina peso: 210%
• Venezuela bolivar: Controlled ER is gone so value has plummeted.

Anything over $30M in Mexico or Brazil is gigantic these days.

[Fullbuster]

8 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

More than badly. Since June 2012, these are the drops from main markets:

• Peru sol: 25%
• Mexico peso, Chile peso: 37.5%
• Colombia peso: 70%
• Brazil real: 80%
• Argentina peso: 210%
• Venezuela bolivar: Controlled ER is gone so value has plummeted.

Anything over $30M in Mexico or Brazil is gigantic these days.

Yeah, that's horrible.

 

In Brazil Civil War got $40m but with 2012's ER it would be at $70m+

 

Finding Dory should be impressive in local currency but it will be hard to reach $30m!

[James]

I seriously doubt this is getting anywhere near the 750m OS some of you guys are predicting around here. With today's ER, that is a territory ruled by absolute phenomenons (Frozen, Minions). I see it more in the lines of 550m OS. For that it would have to sell way more ticketsthan the original movie, even accounting for inflation. Of course, you have expanding markets, but I seriously doubt China will be big for this and Latin America is in a really bad shape BO wise with their ER.

[Agafin]

2 hours ago, James said:

I seriously doubt this is getting anywhere near the 750m OS some of you guys are predicting around here. With today's ER, that is a territory ruled by absolute phenomenons (Frozen, Minions). I see it more in the lines of 550m OS. For that it would have to sell way more ticketsthan the original movie, even accounting for inflation. Of course, you have expanding markets, but I seriously doubt China will be big for this and Latin America is in a really bad shape BO wise with their ER.

 

Lol no, if it were to actually sell as many tickets as the original, we would be looking at $850m+. The Euro/Dollar Exchange rates in June 2003 (when Nemo was released) is very similar to what it is today:

https://www.oanda.com/lang/fr/currency/historical-rates/

https://www.oanda.com/lang/fr/currency/historical-rates/

 

Exchange rates in japan in Nov/Dec 2003 (when Nemo was released there) are pretty much identical to what they are today:

https://www.oanda.com/lang/fr/currency/historical-rates/

https://www.oanda.com/lang/fr/currency/historical-rates/

 

If it was to sell 9.6 millon tickets in France like the original, then it'd be looking at $74m+ (up from the $64m the original grossed) based on Zoo's avg ticket price. In Germany, selling 8.7m tickets like the original would be equal to $76m (instead of the $54m), 8.6m in the UK like original would be $82m (instead of $67m grossed by the original). Even in countries were the currencies have collapsed (Russia, Argentina etc), the markets were so small back then that it can go nowhere but up. It grossed $3m in both Argentina and Russia. Today, similar movies like Jungle Book and Zootopia gross $10m in the former and $20m to $30m in the latter despite ER. Ditto for most asian countries where the original grossed less than $1m while today, similar movies (less popular even) gross $5 to $10m. And then of course, there's China where the original made nothing (not sure it was even released there) while this one is garanteed to do at least $10m in the worst case scenario.

 

You do realize that 2003 was 13 years ago? Movies today are at an ER disadvantage compared to 2008 to about 2012/2013 (recession and post-recession Dollar), not compared to 2003. So predictions in the $650m to $750m range (like we're doing here) actually represent less tickets sold than the original. In my previous post for example, I'm expecting France to drop from 9.6m to 7.2m, Germany from 8.6 to 5.5m etc.

 

$550m would not be a good result for Nemo at all. Two of Disney family movies this year (Zoo and JB) have already done that much and more, and even the 'unwanted sequel' Alice will probably do at least $300m. Inside Out grossed nearly $500m OS last year despite very weak results in China (was it $10m?), weak in Japan (compared to other Pixar offerings), similar ER rates to today (worse even) and despite facing tough competition from the behemoth $800m OS of Minions (while Pets this year will most likely not gross anywhere near as much). Olympics will probably affect it a bit, but there's no reason why this should do less than $600m really.

 

By the way, Nemo was definitely a similar phenomenon to Minions/Frozen in 2003, I'd even say that it was perhaps a bigger phenomenom really. Ice Age which is today a $700m+ OS franchise grossed just about $200m OS back in 2002 while Nemo grossed over three times that a year later. Even in 2006, Ice Age 2 fell $100m short of Nemo's OS gross. Shrek 2 was a huge $440m+ DOM grosser but didn't quite match Nemo OS either.

Edited June 6, 2016 by Agafin

[Infernus]

On 6/6/2016 at 7:27 PM, Agafin said:

 

Lol no, if it were to actually sell as many tickets as the original, we would be looking at $850m+. The Euro/Dollar Exchange rates in June 2003 (when Nemo was released) is very similar to what it is today:

https://www.oanda.com/lang/fr/currency/historical-rates/

https://www.oanda.com/lang/fr/currency/historical-rates/

 

Exchange rates in japan in Nov/Dec 2003 (when Nemo was released there) are pretty much identical to what they are today:

https://www.oanda.com/lang/fr/currency/historical-rates/

https://www.oanda.com/lang/fr/currency/historical-rates/

 

If it was to sell 9.6 millon tickets in France like the original, then it'd be looking at $74m+ (up from the $64m the original grossed) based on Zoo's avg ticket price. In Germany, selling 8.7m tickets like the original would be equal to $76m (instead of the $54m), 8.6m in the UK like original would be $82m (instead of $67m grossed by the original). Even in countries were the currencies have collapsed (Russia, Argentina etc), the markets were so small back then that it can go nowhere but up. It grossed $3m in both Argentina and Russia. Today, similar movies like Jungle Book and Zootopia gross $10m in the former and $20m to $30m in the latter despite ER. Ditto for most asian countries where the original grossed less than $1m while today, similar movies (less popular even) gross $5 to $10m. And then of course, there's China where the original made nothing (not sure it was even released there) while this one is garanteed to do at least $10m in the worst case scenario.

 

You do realize that 2003 was 13 years ago? Movies today are at an ER disadvantage compared to 2008 to about 2012/2013 (recession and post-recession Dollar), not compared to 2003. So predictions in the $650m to $750m range (like we're doing here) actually represent less tickets sold than the original. In my previous post for example, I'm expecting France to drop from 9.6m to 7.2m, Germany from 8.6 to 5.5m etc.

 

It was released in China. It made 4.3m$ and was the 7th highest grossing film of its year. Adjusting that to market growth and change in ER, the figure turns to more than 250m$ today.

 

Here's a post of mine from last year in the China Thread- 

Adjusted to the box-office wise market growth and the change in exchange rates here's what the various Pixar movies would have made in China had they been released this year and turned out just as big (or small) a hit as they did in their actual release -

 

Finding Nemo - 268.18m $, 7th highest grossing of its year (Yeah!! the 190m figure I got earlier was through directly adjusting the dollar gross from back then which was a mistake on my part since there has been a considerable change in the xchange rates since then - going down from 8.27 to 6.35 right now)

Cars - 56.9m, 26th

Ratatouille - 1.67m (...  ), 60th

UP - 106.85m, 19th

Toy Story 3 - 80.43m, 26th

Cars 2 - 41.6m, 43rd

Brave-  11.64m, 85th

MU-  67.33m, 32nd

 

So IO is gonna end up as the third lowest grossing Pixar release since 2003 only above brave and Ratatouille.

 

Of course that doesnt mean Dory will be able to match that. In fact things aren't looking very good for it. I just hope we get 50m from China for it.

Edited June 14, 2016 by Infernus

[Infernus]

On 6/6/2016 at 0:49 AM, Agafin said:

Asia: The first did about $120m here. Japan should be good for $100m to $105m which would be similar to what both sw7 and Alice did here (adjusting to today's exchange rates) so that seems like some kind of ceiling for Disney movies (not named Frozen). Pixar isn't huge in China but seeing the performance of Angry Birds, I can tell that they love their talking animals there so it should still be capable of having a decent run despite the competition, I predict $65-75m (that would be far bigger than most Pixar offerings here). Hong Kong loves Pixar and the market is quite bigger than it was in 2003. $10m should happen. Russia just like its Asian counterparts is fond of talking animals (judging by the performance of Zootopia, Ice Age, Madagascar etc) so I expect $20m. All the other smaller markets like Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore should also increase big time from the first time due to market expansion. I expect $250m from the entire region.

 

It can break out in SK too. IO made around 35m last year. This can match that or maybe even surpass it. 

[peludo]

I do not dare to make a global analysis. I will take just Spanish case:

 

Finding Nemo sold here 4,989,415 admissions and grossed €23.8m ($29.46m according BOM). That gives a €4.77 average ticket price. This year, similar films like Jungle Book, Zootopia or Kung Fu Panda 3 have had about €5.7 average ticket price.

 

With this average ticket price, FN would had done today €28.44m, what means $31.95m, barely a 8% higher than in 2003.

 

Probably, this case it is not representative for other countries, but to say that given the bad ER and, in this case, low inflation, Dory will need to sell nearly the same amount of admissions than Nemo to match what it did. Pixar is very big here (IO sold 3.8 million admissions last year). And Finding Nemo is very well beloved (Dory as a character is even more adored than Nemo), so the chance exists. But it will be hard.