Ocean's Eight | June 8, 2018 | WB | Gary Ross directing, Bullock, Blanchett, Hathaway, Rihanna, Bonham Carter, Kaling, Paulson and Awkwafina. Social Media Embargo up

[Jonwo]

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

At $70m if true, that is a shoe in to be profitable and extremely easy to greenlight, but if true I imagine that would also suggest a lot of the revenues will go in back end deals here.

I imagine Bullock, Blanchett and Hathaway likely have back ends deals 

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, stay-cool said:

45 million would be excellent. Bullock is the only megastar here whereas the others had Clooney, Pitt, Damon and Julia Roberts. 

I’d argue that Hathaway and Cate are bigger than Damon was when Oceans 11 came out, he’d only had two hits. 

[stay-cool]

48 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I’d argue that Hathaway and Cate are bigger than Damon was when Oceans 11 came out, he’d only had two hits. 

Fair point on Damon, I agree. I don’t think Cate Blanchett is an actual box office draw, though. Probably just Bullock and Hathaway (to a lesser extent) of the cast here. 

[Barnack]

32 minutes ago, stay-cool said:

Fair point on Damon, I agree. I don’t think Cate Blanchett is an actual box office draw, though. Probably just Bullock and Hathaway (to a lesser extent) of the cast here. 

First Ocean was quite the Pitt&Clooney affair, Damon rising career fitting is character in the movie.

 

Hathaway has really strong metrics, with the Female below 25 being her strongest quadrant.

Name                                   market                    Awareness                         Pop among aware             Score

Hathaway, Anne	Australia	0.89	0.58	0.51
Hathaway, Anne	Brazil	0.79	0.76	0.60
Hathaway, Anne	France	0.70	0.47	0.33
Hathaway, Anne	Germany	0.80	0.57	0.46
Hathaway, Anne	Italy	0.80	0.62	0.50
Hathaway, Anne	Japan	0.44	0.38	0.17
Hathaway, Anne	Korea	0.78	0.53	0.41
Hathaway, Anne	Mexico	0.82	0.77	0.63
Hathaway, Anne	Russia	0.72	0.39	0.28
Hathaway, Anne	Spain	0.81	0.49	0.40
Hathaway, Anne	UK	0.91	0.55	0.50
Hathaway, Anne	Int'l Average	0.77	0.56	0.43

 

 

Blanchett is a draw on the right kind of movie, Australia being probably her biggest market and female over 25 her best quadrant, apparently she get international pre-sales going and make small enough project easy to greenlight when she become attached to them, that is part because she will almost certainly give them award attention too.

 

Name                  Country                Awa      pop       score

Blanchett, Cate	Australia	0.90	0.61	0.55
Blanchett, Cate	Brazil	0.71	0.66	0.47
Blanchett, Cate	France	0.81	0.53	0.43
Blanchett, Cate	Germany	0.82	0.63	0.51
Blanchett, Cate	Italy	0.69	0.54	0.38
Blanchett, Cate	Japan	0.38	0.35	0.13
Blanchett, Cate	Korea	0.38	0.18	0.07
Blanchett, Cate	Mexico	0.68	0.69	0.47
Blanchett, Cate	Russia	0.78	0.36	0.28
Blanchett, Cate	Spain	0.77	0.57	0.44
Blanchett, Cate	UK	0.87	0.53	0.46
Blanchett, Cate	Int'l Average	0.71	0.51	0.36

[Krissykins]

Variety say $30-38m. 

[WrathOfHan]

I'm a little surprised how low tracking is. Variety's range kind of puts 50M off the table unless the embargo drops early and reviews are through the roof.

[Jonwo]

41 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm a little surprised how low tracking is. Variety's range kind of puts 50M off the table unless the embargo drops early and reviews are through the roof.

Wasn't RPO tracking at $35m for the four days originally before the reviews came out? I think O8 is probably open low to mid 40s, I wouldn't be shocked if they have an early review embargo. 

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

Wasn't RPO tracking at $35m for the four days originally before the reviews came out? I think O8 is probably open low to mid 40s, I wouldn't be shocked if they have an early review embargo. 

 

 

I think that was for the 3 day

[Valonqar]

I think this will break out. Tracking is sometimes hard to nail for certain types of movies. 

[Brinatico]

Well, I think this one have the true elements to be a box office  hit.

1. Female stars. 

2. No another BS Disney movie.

3. Sequel of a good franchise 

[Valonqar]

No direct competition either. Good counter programming to SFX flicks too. 

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

No direct competition either. Good counter programming to SFX flicks too. 

The only direct competition it has is Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again which isn't out until a month later. 

 

 

[a2k]

50-60 ow imo. 200 possible depending on reception. could pull off an AQP like ow/dom or even better in a different genre.

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

The only direct competition it has is Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again which isn't out until a month later. 

 

 

I don't think MM2 will do well. Like, did people clamor for the sequel? 

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I don't think MM2 will do well. Like, did people clamor for the sequel? 

I'm warming up to it as the clip they released was quite good, it's going to be a monster OS which will more than make up for any shortfall domestically, 

 

6 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

50-60 ow imo. 200 possible depending on reception. could pull off an AQP like ow/dom or even better in a different genre.

I think $50m is the ceiling OW wise, I hope and think it'll have good WOM but I don't see it outgrossing Gravity's OW for Sandra Bullock's highest OW

[The Futurist]

Gurl Powah.

 

[ronisssantos]

#Oceans8 Social media embargo lifts 9pm EST tonight! - grace

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, ronisssantos said:

#Oceans8 Social media embargo lifts 9pm EST tonight! - grace

@GraceRandolph  

 

This is hopefully a good move on WB's part. I think they took a look at tracking and decided something needed to happen.

Edited May 22, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[KeepItU25071906]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

@GraceRandolph  

 

This is hopefully a good move on WB's part. I think they took a look at tracking and decided something needed to happen.

may be it would be rare occassion (for studio) when embargo lifts on Friday or Saturday (1-2.06 ).

 

It can be ~50 mln opener if WB will try.

Edited May 22, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[Valonqar]

Predict a surprise MVP. Thor Ragnarok was expected to garner praise for C8 but it was Valkyre who received most notices instead and also lets not forget Korg love.