Weekend Estimates (pg14): Martian 11.4 | Goosebumps 10.21 | Spies 8.06 | Burnt 5.04 | Crisis 3.43 | Scouts 1.77

[Jack Nevada]

Lmao. Another wknd for the ages.

[Water Bottle]

31 minutes ago, Alpha said:

Kinda glad that Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse is bombing so hard. It looked absolutely awful, just horrendously unfunny.

People worked hard on that movie. I mean not me and it's superficially competing with the movie I want to make (really different but the loglines are similar) but still other people worked hard on it.

[Wrath]

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

This will be the worst weekend for quite some time by the looks of it. There are no major challenges for this weekend between weak openers and low box office for holdovers. Next September and October look decently stacked enough that every week will at least have one movie opening to 15M or more (of course a lot can change by next year). Jan and Feb look to have mid-size movies every week at the very least.

When was the last time we had a weekend in which zero movies made $10M?

[filmlover]

Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse (that has to be one of the most unwieldy titles in a very long time) really does look like a Funny or Die skit stretched out to feature length. It flopping should come as a surprise to no one.

[Wrath]

38 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Spectre is sure to drop 55-60% second weekend. So it could be as low as 30m if it only opens in the 70's. Peanuts will also be sub 30 that weekend. Exciting numbers by this weekend's standards I suppose, but not by most. The other two will for sure be boring weekends. 

On the one hand, I don't disagree with you. On the other hand, I think you're slightly glossing over just how awful this weekend is looking. Spectre making $30M in its second weekend could potentially be more than the top *4* movies this weekend added together.

 

Spectre disappointing is like ordering Mint Chocolate Chip ice cream and just getting Chocolate Chip. Its a little disappointing, but its not bad. This weekend will be like getting a rock in your bowl.

 

Edit - Speaking of rocks, we made the kids watch the "Its the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown!" Peanuts Halloween special which I remembered as being one of the better Peanuts holiday specials. It was just awful. I actually fell asleep and the kids hated it and kept trying to leave. By today's standards, everyone is horrifically brutal to Charlie Brown (not just the kids, everyone. When they go trick or treating, I'd forgotten that *every single house* they visit gives Charlie Brown a rock. And only him. Everyone else gets candy. Kicking the unpopular kid when he's down just isn't as fun as it used to be, I guess), the plot wanders in a half-dozen directions for no apparently reason, and almost nothing happens. Seriously, watching the old Peanuts' TV shows is about the worst marketing they could do for the movie.

Edited October 30, 2015 by Wrath

[CJohn]

This weekend is death and Bullock will beat Cooper. 

[grim22]

3 minutes ago, Wrath said:

When was the last time we had a weekend in which zero movies made $10M?

September 4-6 this year, but that was over the 3 day portion of the 4 day weekend. Exactly a year ago Ouija and Nightcrawler came close with 300k over 10M for both, same with Skyfall and Rise of the Guardians over the Dec 7-9 2012 weekend, the last non-holiday 3 day weekend to have no movie over 10M was Sep 7-9 2012 when a bad Bradley Cooper movie called "The Words" was the major wide release.

[Fancyarcher]

1 hour ago, Alpha said:

Kinda glad that Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse is bombing so hard. It looked absolutely awful, just horrendously unfunny.

Honestly, I'm not sure why Hollywood is trying to make Seth Grahame-Smith happen. 

[grim22]

16 minutes ago, Daniel Dylan Davis said:

Honestly, I'm not sure why Hollywood is trying to make Seth Grahame-Smith happen. 

Seth Grahame-Smith has nothing to do with the Scouts movie.

[movieboner]

I'm not going to visit the forum this weekend, instead I'm going trick or treating.....wait I'm too old, so I think I'm gonna pretend to hang out with my little sister and her friends.

[Fancyarcher]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

Seth Grahame-Smith has nothing to do with the Scouts movie.

Whoops, got it mixed up with Pride, Prejudiced and Zombies. Don't know why, it does sound like something he'd write though. 

[grim22]

Wonder how harsh will the drop fro Jem be this weekend. Apparently Ke$ha appears in the post-credit scene for it along with the silent asian girl from Pitch Perfect and the murdered girl/Wes's girlfriend from "How to get away with murder"

[Wrath]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Wonder how harsh will the drop fro Jem be this weekend. Apparently Ke$ha appears in the post-credit scene for it along with the silent asian girl from Pitch Perfect and the murdered girl/Wes's girlfriend from "How to get away with murder"

My local theater is dropping Jem from 4 screenings to 1. So my guess is: "As harsh as they can legally get away with". 65-70%?

Edited October 30, 2015 by Wrath

[babz06]

November 13 is going to be a boring weekend for openers:

The 33, Love the Coopers, My All American and By The Sea is limited. 

Still surprised studios didn't put something bigger on that weekend, instead of stacking up Christmas Day.

 

[grim22]

7 minutes ago, babz06 said:

November 13 is going to be a boring weekend for openers:

The 33, Love the Coopers, My All American and By The Sea is limited. 

Still surprised studios didn't put something bigger on that weekend, instead of stacking up Christmas Day.

 

The reason 2 weeks before Thanksgiving and 2 weeks before Christmas are typically ignored by studios is because of the number of movies which release on Thanksgiving and Christmas. Theaters are obligated to show movies for the first 2 weeks, following that they can remove older movies and give the screens to new ones. No movies want to lose a large number of screens to make way for the new releases on Christmas and Thanksgiving, so the studios just decide to dump whatever in those weeks.

[RyneOh1040]

Since it's going to be a slow weekend I was looking at next year's slate and just saw.....they're giving Yates' TARZAN a 180 million dollar budget!?!?!!?  Shit, WB needs to get it together with their budgeting, that's out of control for a film with a hard premise to sell AND unknown leads to the main stream public.  

 

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, RyneOh1040 said:

Since it's going to be a slow weekend I was looking at next year's slate and just saw.....they're giving Yates' TARZAN a 180 million dollar budget!?!?!!?  Shit, WB needs to get it together with their budgeting, that's out of control for a film with a hard premise to sell AND unknown leads to the main stream public.  

 

Tarzan will be a catastrophe. I don't even see OS doing anything for it. 

[CJohn]

DHD is saying 3.5M OW for Our Brand is Crisis and 6-6.5M for Burnt. Stunning (Scouts vs Zombies estimated at 2.3M for now).

[grim22]

From Deadline

Quote

It’s another bad weekend for adult wide entries with Sandra Bullock on track to hit her lowest wide opening ever with Warner Bros.’ Our Brand Is Crisis at an industry estimated $3.5M and Bradley Cooper not faring that much better with Weinstein Co.’s Burnt which is currently showing $6M-$6.5M. Should that figure hold up for Our Brand Is Crisis, which carries a $28M-$30M budget (with 50% financing from Participant), it will fall below the actress’ lowest wide opening of all-time 1996’s Two if By Sea ($4.65M opening), also from Warner Bros. 

While Burnt currently isn’t bound to be an ultimate low for Cooper, it couldn’t happen at worse time, just after his summer flop Aloha ($9.67M opening, final $21.1M).  Burnt carries an estimated production budget of $20M. These projections are being made off of matinees, so business could conceivably creep up at evening. An R-rated political comedy and a chef dramedy aren’t the type of films a crowd just drops their afternoon activities for. Yes, it’s Halloween weekend, so that’s tricking the turnstiles, but these films’ projected underperformance speaks to the larger issue of award contending/adult demo fare at the autumn box office, and how hard it has been for a slew of them to break through.

That is except for 20th Century Fox’s The Martian which is still expected to rule first place with an estimated fifth weekend of $10M and a cume by Sunday of $180.2M. Many distrib executives thought family moviegoers would also abandon Goosebumps in its third frame (Fandango did not, they showed advance ticket sales as the second highest behind Martian) given the holiday, however, it’s currently showing a second place take of $9M, down 42% for a cume through its third weekend by Sunday of $55.9M. Paramount’s Scouts’ Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse isn’t setting any fires except to itself with a very low $2.3M debut currently. The R-rated horror comedy carries a budget in the mid teens.

 

[WrathOfHan]

I don't know if I should laugh or not, these are pathetic estimates.