Weekend Estimates (pg49): Mockingjay 101M | Spectre 14.6M | Night Before 10.1M | SITE 6.63M

[Deathlife]

I heard about a survey that said that MJ part 2 was the most anticipated movie of the Xmas.

 

I knew it was absolute nonsense when I heard it.

 

Star Wars pre-sales is already at 50% of MJ 2's opening weekend. That says it all.

[peludo]

30 minutes ago, straggler said:

It will make $300 million. These films are always underestimated. 

Good luck with that. The chances for this to make $300m are next to 0%.

 

Previous installments have done between 2.67 and 2.76 multiplier and, suddenly, this going to jump towards x3... With Star Wars coming within a month, late legs can be cut. This can perfectly finish closer to 250 than to 300.

[straggler]

43 minutes ago, peludo said:

Good luck with that. The chances for this to make $300m are next to 0%.

 

Previous installments have done between 2.67 and 2.76 multiplier and, suddenly, this going to jump towards x3... With Star Wars coming within a month, late legs can be cut. This can perfectly finish closer to 250 than to 300.

Just like the Hunger Games could not reach $400 million. Just like Catching Fire could not make more than the Hunger Games. Just like it was an absolute, metaphysical certainty that MJ1 would not catch GOTG, and that "the ship has sailed." So much self-certainty and yet the results never back it up. Maybe this time.    

[peludo]

20 minutes ago, straggler said:

Just like the Hunger Games could not reach $400 million. Just like Catching Fire could not make more than the Hunger Games. Just like it was an absolute, metaphysical certainty that MJ1 would not catch GOTG, and that "the ship has sailed." So much self-certainty and yet the results never back it up. Maybe this time.    

For that reason I said that chances are next to 0%, not exactly 0%. Nothing is locked, but data and antecedents do not invite to be optimistic.

[baumer]

50 minutes ago, straggler said:

Just like the Hunger Games could not reach $400 million. Just like Catching Fire could not make more than the Hunger Games. Just like it was an absolute, metaphysical certainty that MJ1 would not catch GOTG, and that "the ship has sailed." So much self-certainty and yet the results never back it up. Maybe this time.    

 

But we already  have data to help us extrapolate.  There is no chance this film is hitting 300 mill.  

[Nutterbutter]

I agree, 300M is out. Even if this somehow had great legs, those legs would have to be at least a 2.97 compared to MJ1's 2.78. But the Star Wars factor kind of ensures that this will not have those legs, or MJ1's legs, or perhaps even THG/CF's legs (2.68). Star Wars hype was perhaps one of the factors that contributed to the decrease in attendance just in this opening weekend. That should only get stronger as we get closer to Star Wars' release - MJ2 could drop slightly harder each week than it would have otherwise. Then, once Star Wars comes out, it'll cut MJ2's legs off just as it's headed into its leggy phase. With no Star Wars, I might say this could leg out to at least MJ1's multiplier, even though the 2.97 needed to hit 300M is still nigh impossible. But with Star Wars, that multiplier's going down.

Edited November 23, 2015 by Nutterbutter

[misafeco]

With an OW this "small" MJ2 has a good chance to develop better legs than MJ1. 3x is maybe too much, but 2.8 is a good target imo. It needs a very good hold next weekend.

[Ethan Hunt]

12 minutes ago, misafeco said:

With an OW this "small" MJ2 has a good chance to develop better legs than MJ1. 3x is maybe too much, but 2.8 is a good target imo. It needs a very good hold next weekend.

If it keeps that legs continue to get better with each film thing going that would be pretty awesome.

[Elessar]

9 hours ago, grey ghost said:

Goodfellas is a must see and the perfect movie. It deserved best picture. 

 

 

Dances With Wolves deservedly won. 

[Asyulus]

$101m OW? FLOP!!!

 

57% percent drop in Spectre?, SO OUCH!

[JohnnyGossamer]

Creed and Good Dino over Mockingjay's 2nd weekend?

[misafeco]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Creed and Good Dino over Mockingjay's 2nd weekend?

Only TGD. If MJ2 drops similar to MJ1, it'll be in the high 40s. No way Creed opens that high (3 day).

[JohnnyGossamer]

I think it will have a sharper decline with a low-40s second weekend.

[misafeco]

39 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I think it will have a sharper decline with a low-40s second weekend.

Do you think Creed can make that much?

[lab276]

This could be the worst November since either 1993 or 1995 in admissions.

[The Futurist]

Just now, lab276 said:

This could be the worst November since either 1993 or 1995 in admissions.

 

There s a storm coming in.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Yes.

 

Good Dino - $67M

Creed $44M

Mockingjay $41M

Edited November 23, 2015 by JohnnyGossamer

[druv10]

Interesting, a 2nd WWW thread was locked for MJ2. It's looking at 40-45% drop in admissions from CF and 36% drop in gross on OW. If it doesn't need a WWW thread, no movie going forward deserves one. 

[John Marston]

2 minutes ago, druv10 said:

Interesting, a 2nd WWW thread was locked for MJ2. It's looking at 40-45% drop in admissions from CF and 36% drop in gross on OW. If it doesn't need a WWW thread, no movie going forward deserves one. 

 

 

to be fair, maybe WWW for any movie is redundant since everyone discusses it in the weekend thread lalready

[keysersoze123]

I agree. Mods are way too rigid here. This is great example of something going wrong. A franchise from 425m peak 2 years back to possible mid 200's finish. OW that dropped 35% from CF. This despite all fan reviews of trailers being "out of the world".