kayumanggi Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 'STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS' Breaks Advance Ticket Sales Record in Russia https://t.co/qtfiguxOij pic.twitter.com/FOA1fWAlxS — Superhero Feed (@SuperheroFeed) December 12, 2015 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 That was actually a wrong post lol. Sorry. Wrong thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 (edited) On 12/11/2015, 9:44:29, Fake said: I am visiting this site (domestic section) after a long time..... and when I opened this thread and saw all the predictions.... I was like....... WHAAAAAT!!!! Maybe I'm completely off the track here as I haven't been following any news/reports, but here it goes.... OW: 140M DOM: 500M WW: 1.4B lol. So CJohn started the 300M thing, we got some ballsy clubs (Star Wars takes every single daily record - BKB's the only one in for that). Then we got the presales quote of ~54M as of Nov 19/20, and we started to hear some media outlets pegging super bullish. Got a vague tracking report suggesting 170-300M OW and another saying 1B domestic potential (all based on...nothing truly substantial outside of sellouts). As a result, everyone's gone nuts and there are people legitimately predicting >300M OW in December. Its great. Still, 140M is definitely low - IMAX/PLF grosses are huge these days (JW did 37.7M on OW) and this is getting a massive IMAX push; probably record numbers in both of those formats. The amount of tickets it has to sell to clear 170M is huge, but still within the realm of what we've seen in December because of the price premium, and that's assuming everyone else is still way too high. Rallax posted the Starplex chain's internal tracking data though, that was truly impressive, 225M and crazy awareness numbers: Spoiler 11 hours ago, Fake said: A pretty interesting observation regarding 500M+ gross: All movies that have done it, weren't predicted to do it before the release, be it Titanic, TDK, Avatar, Avengers or JW. And all the movies that were predicted to do it, didn't make it... e.g. TPM, TDKR, Avengers 2 (and even Hobbit by some). Well.... there is a first time for everything, but at the same time, history can't be ignored. Curious to see what happens. This is meaningless IMO, and not even technically correct (off the top of my head - Avatar: BJ/Kal, Avengers: BKB, TDK: BJ). 11 hours ago, Fake said: Could you give me the link quoting that figure? And are those presales just for the OW or are distributed over the holidays? Because those two have completely different meanings. We've had no report on how the presales are distributed, for all we know it opens to 150M and then just trucks along like a monster during the holiday week. All we have is anecdote from our own sellout counts - this is pacing to finish with higher sellouts than anything Tele and I have tracked before and has almost matched the previous highs on record already with still a full week to go. Edited December 12, 2015 by spizzer 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Community Manager Water Bottle Posted December 12, 2015 Community Manager Share Posted December 12, 2015 Watch that $150 million be just for Thursday and Friday. [emoji14] Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 12, 2015 Author Share Posted December 12, 2015 11 minutes ago, Water Bottle said: Watch that $150 million be just for Thursday and Friday. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Jw did 63m on friday Im thinking if this does do 60m on thur than why not 80 for Friday. 140m. giddy up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Community Manager Water Bottle Posted December 12, 2015 Community Manager Share Posted December 12, 2015 11 minutes ago, Water Bottle said: Watch that $150 million be just for Thursday and Friday. [emoji14] Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Jw did 63m on friday Im thinking if this does do 60m on thur than why not 80 for Friday. 140m. giddy up! Lol. CJohn would probably think that's too low and ask for a WWW thread. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 On 12/11/2015, 3:45:44, baumer said: The thing is James, you could be right, logically you should be right. We are all predicting ridiculously stupid insane far out ludicrous numbers. We're talking about anniliating (can never spell it right..don't care...you know what I mean) the December record, tripling it. We're talking about trumping the OW record by about 30-50 million. There is no precedent for this and it should not happen. But how do you ignore the presales? How do you ignore the sellouts? For a more interesting but nonetheless telling metric, look at the forums themselves. There is literally no interest in anything but SW right now. When is the last time no one gave a shit about weekday numbers? No one cares about top 50 countdowns, no one is going to the movies right now. SW has caused everyone to freak out. I understand your skepticism just based on history. But you just can't ignore the storm that is coming James. You and your non believer friends better batten down the hatches because when it hits you're all going to wonder how Star Wars is living so large and leaving so little for other releases. And yes I'm looking forward to it, not only am I adaptable, I'm a loonie. The thing I appreciate about this post is that Star Wars hype is so great, baumer is willing to reference TDKR to make his point come across Splendid 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 7 hours ago, Cochofles said: The fandom for SW is huge, gigantic, but this won't beat neither Titanic nor Avatar except when it comes to opening weekend; that's about it. I'm afraid it's you that's wrong about a great many things. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talkie Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 2 hours ago, No Prisoners said: Jw did 63m on friday Im thinking if this does do 60m on thur than why not 80 for Friday. 140m. giddy up! Those numbers would portend a >$300M OW, right? By the way, what happens in the case of duplicate predictions? I noticed that someone came in after my prediction and posted the same number (domestic). There are other duplicate predictions on the list. Does the person who posted second get adjusted? Or is there another way to decide? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 12, 2015 Author Share Posted December 12, 2015 31 minutes ago, baumer said: I'm afraid it's you that's wrong about a great many things. Its possible it doesn't beat both in WW and Avatar domestic The facts are Sell outs are huge for OW Presales are huge but could be inflated with the holidays to follow Fanbase is gigantic and the hype will stretch outside the base but... What remains to be seen Reviews could kill the spread of need WOM to get to those numbers Avatar did 750 dom with the help of all demos. I know many people that saw Avatar but not the prequels. SW was groundbreaking and pulled in other demos, but the sequels and prequels declined proving it to be genre of limited demos. Avatar like SW was groundbreaking. Will SW7 be groundbreaking or just another hyped up front loaded sequel which puts 750m in doubt Cameron managed to get a huge OS % of 66 on Titanic in 98 and bested it with Avatar. Again those two hit a lot more demos. Most syfy/superhero films could only muster 50-60% OS since Titanic, including all of SW 123 and TDK and TA1. With many territories looking to double+ RotS some might just be flat like Japan, putting 1.2B OS at a hard reach If we are right, it could open to 250m, but then fall out of bed with numb legs like DH2. It is possible that reviews kill the multiplier. and fall short of Avatar Dom although hard to imagine that a 250m OW then not beating Titatnic. We are confusing the short term hype of a big OD/OW based on facts with a big run in Dom and OS with yet to be determined factors. It is very possible to land in the 700s for Dom with a 250 OW and score 1b-1.2B OS. Interesting note: Vegas put the O/U at 1.8B. 700m/1.1B? However the odds did adjust to reflect 4 times more people betting the over. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 11 minutes ago, xeno000 said: Those numbers would portend a >$300M OW, right? By the way, what happens in the case of duplicate predictions? I noticed that someone came in after my prediction and posted the same number (domestic). There are other duplicate predictions on the list. Does the person who posted second get adjusted? Or is there another way to decide? could be upper 200s or 300 with that if WOM sets on fire you can change your prediction or you can share bragging rights, but a tie breaker using next category comes into play for upgrade prize, explained on P1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 OW: $195m Dom: $660m OS: $1075m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 I'm not saying that it's locked to beat Avatar, not at all. But I think it has an excellent chance of passing Titanic. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmbbox2390 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Domestic OW: $232mil Domestic Total: $957mil Worldwide Total: 2.6bil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cochofles Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 5 hours ago, baumer said: I'm afraid it's you that's wrong about a great many things. LOL Just wait and see... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wormhole Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 235 OW 760 DOM 2.2 bil WW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTF Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 56 minutes ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said: If this movie can't beat AVATAR, then no movie will and will only go to prove that AVATAR was nothing more than a 3D gimmick.. Nothing you said here makes any sense 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxRox Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 223M OW 835M Dom 2.10B WW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cochofles Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 9 minutes ago, FTF said: Nothing you said here makes any sense LOL!!!! «If a film I am rooting for doesn’t beat a film I dislike, that means that the film I dislike was not really liked by anyone. My film not beating that other film is unequivocal proof of that other film not being liked by audiences.” That makes perfect sense, FTF. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Well.... if this doesn't do 600M+, the meltdowns will be too good......... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
