Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | 1B WW

[MattW]

27 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya  24 seconds ago

#RogueOne TUE hits $17.6M dom, $16M intl, $33.6M ww. Breaks $200M dom today. Global at $357M. Will cross $400M THU, may pass $600M by MON.

My guess is more like 560 including Monday the 26th.

[Purple Minion]

Some updated international figures from The Numbers:

Box Office Summary Per Territory

Territory						Total Box Office	Report Date
Australia						$13,700,000	12/21/2016
Brazil						$6,700,000	12/21/2016
Bulgaria						$277,153	12/20/2016
Czech Republic						$665,504	12/20/2016
France						$13,700,000	12/21/2016
Germany						$15,000,000	12/21/2016
Indonesia						$2,900,000	12/21/2016
Italy						$3,900,000	12/21/2016
Japan						$9,800,000	12/21/2016
Lithuania						$69,169	12/20/2016
Mexico						$6,200,000	12/21/2016
Netherlands						$1,871,214	12/20/2016
New Zealand						$1,543,605	12/19/2016
Philippines						$2,700,000	12/21/2016
Poland						$3,100,000	12/21/2016
Russia (CIS)						$6,300,000	12/21/2016
Slovakia						$208,345	12/20/2016
Spain						$5,200,000	12/21/2016
Sweden						$4,000,000	12/21/2016
Turkey						$922,911	12/20/2016
United Kingdom						$28,200,000	12/21/2016
Rest of World						$39,842,099
International Total						$166,800,000	12/21/2016

Edited December 21, 2016 by Purple Minion

[Lordmandeep]

Seems to be heading towards a leggy run overseas due to thr holidays.

 

I imagine a market like Japan will likely gross another 25 million alone.

[Agafin]

Some terrific Tuesday holds overseas it seems.

Edited December 21, 2016 by Agafin

[TommyA10]

41 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Seems to be heading towards a leggy run overseas due to thr holidays.

 

I imagine a market like Japan will likely gross another 25 million alone.

If it continues to hold like this, it could be a close one between RO and CW for WW No1 (Unless China collapses and makes way less than $100m).

[hw64]

4 minutes ago, TommyA10 said:

If it continues to hold like this, it could be a close one between RO and CW for WW No1 (Unless China collapses and makes way less than $100m).

 

Doesn't seem particularly likely for any sort of WW battle between RO and CW given the numbers we've seen so far.

 

And China is likely to fall below $100m, yeah.

[TommyA10]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Doesn't seem particularly likely for any sort of WW battle between RO and CW given the numbers we've seen so far.

 

And China is likely to fall below $100m, yeah.

TFA made 3.65x its OW (minus China and S. Korea). If RO can follow, it'll make $490m without China and S. Korea. If China and Korea do more than $100m combined it could be close (with $550m domestic)

[hw64]

1 hour ago, TommyA10 said:

TFA made 3.65x its OW (minus China and S. Korea). If RO can follow, it'll make $490m without China and S. Korea. If China and Korea do more than $100m combined it could be close (with $550m domestic)

 

$550m domestic, $490m overseas without China and SK, and over $100m in China and SK is a set of best-case scenarios, and Rogue One is unlikely to hit any single one of them, let alone all of them at once.

 

And from what we're seeing so far, Rogue One's not going to follow TFA, at all. Without China, TFA made around $1007m overseas with an opening weekend of $281m, so that's a multiplier of 3.58. Rogue One made $135m in its overseas opening weekend, which is 48.04% of TFA's opening weekend. So to follow the same multiplier, each day you'd be wanting Rogue One to be making on average 48.04% of what TFA made on the same day. On Monday, TFA made $41.7m and Rogue One made $15.8m, whereas you'd be wanting it to make $20m. Similarly for Tuesday, where the figures are pretty much the same ($41.3m and $16m).

 

This is all without mentioning the fact that both Rogue One's second and third overseas weekends are going to be completely gutted by the fact that Christmas Eve and Christmas Day (both weak overseas box office days) fall on Saturday and Sunday on the second weekend, and New Year's Eve (an extremely weak box office day) and New Year's Day (not the best) fall on the Saturday and Sunday of the third weekend.

[MattW]

On 12/18/2016 at 10:41 AM, MattW said:

Without China:

Movie - opening - total

SuicS - 133.3 - 420.5

DeadP - 132.2 - 419.5

BvS  -  199.4 - 447.1

 

Add in all territories but subtract Korea:

SuicS - 137.1

DeadP - 149.8

 

With the holidays I think 500 is likely from these markets.  Here's my rough model:

Dec 18: 135.5

Dec 25: 250 (+115)

Jan 1: 370 (+120)

Jan 8: 425 (+55)

Jan 15: 455 (+30)

Jan 22: 472 (+17)

Jan 29: 482 (+10)

Rest: ~500

China+Korea > 100
Total: 600+

 

 

Unfortunately I may have been too optimistic from these markets mostly by not really working out how much they can do with christmas eve being on Saturday (and from China+Korea as well from what others are saying).  

Current guess:

 

Dec 18: 135.5

Dec 25: 240 (+105)

Jan 1: 350 (+110)

Jan 8: 400 (+50)

Jan 15: 430 (+30)

Jan 22: 445 (+15)

Jan 29: 455 (+10)

Rest: 465-480

 

Which should mean 525 easy, and maybe even over 550m total overseas.

[DeeCee]

Theatres don't open until after 3pm and it's only some of the larger ones on Christmas Day.

 

https://www.eventcinemas.com.au/Promotions/OpenChristmasDay

 

http://www.hoyts.com.au/movies/events/we_are_open_christmas_day.aspx

Edited December 21, 2016 by DeeCee

[Agafin]

Based on the numbers we have so far, here's what I'm predicting for Rogue One until the end of the week:

 

Dom: 

Wed:  $15m (-15%)

Thur: $16.5m (+10%)

""Fri:  $23.5m (+42.5%)

"Sat:  $14.1m (-40%)

"Sun: $30.3m (+115%)

 

Dom Total through Sunday: $289.7m

 

OS (-SK):

Wed:  $17m (+6%)

Thur: $15m (-12%)

""Fri:  $22m (+47%)

"Sat:  $12m (-45%)

"Sun: $10m (-17%)

SK OW: $4m

 

OS Total through Sunday:  $246.7m

 

WW: $536.4m

 

The DOM total is mostly obtained by using trends from movies which had similar holiday configurations as Rogue One but with much more muted bumps to account for the much bigger numbers it's pulling off (Sunday bump of 115% is much lower than SH's 147% bump on the same weekend and even then, the result still seems very high).

 

For the OS holds, I'm mostly trying to find an aggregate of how various major markets should behave and extrapolating from there. For example, while most markets should see a dip from Tues to Wed due to the openings of Ass or Pass, the numbers they are pulling so far are quite muted so RO won't be affected too much. Add to that the expected bumps in big markets like UK (schools closing) or Japan (Ladies days) and we should see it staying flat or rising slightly. Christmas eve will of course be terrible with théâtres closing early in a lot of countries, and Sunday will probably be even weaker with théâtres closing all day in some major countries (The UK, most notably).

 

TFA stood at $1086m after 12 days so that's around a 49% retention. Next week should be really interesting to follow. In over 95% of the markets it's currently playing in (Japan being the main exception), Every School will be closed and a lot of adults on holiday, so we'll likely see slim drops or perhaps week on week increases. I can see next week generating 60-65% of TFA's corresponding week. Monday in particular should retain 90-100% of TFA's second Monday as we'd be comparing Boxing day (biggest moviegoing day in a lot of countries) to a regular holiday Monday for TFA. The week after that should also be interesting. I remember that by TFA's third week, the majority of k-12 schools accross the globe had reopened (according to wiki), while this time around, due to the différence in calendar, the majority will still be on winter break. It should be another week with 60+% retention from TFA. Then the week after that will mostly depend on China 

Edited December 22, 2016 by Agafin

[TigerPaw]

For Asia, in particular Chinese Speaking Territories. There is a big reason why there is a BIG drop from TFA. I read and speak Chinese as my 2nd language. I have spoken to my friends and been reading taiwan, HK(cantonese) and Mainland chinese forum. Plus places like Singapore where majority of the population are Chinese.

 

So Donnie Yen's inclusion is a huge deal. People in forums.. are saying even though they haven't watch a single star wars. They will watch it for Donnie.

 

BUT.. the issue is the title of Rogue One in Mandarin. It is not A Star Wars story. But the literal translation - is Hero Call Sign One: Star Wars Spin-off. (In chinese spinoff is written as "outside" story Wai Zhuan)

 

This title is turning alot of people off. They don't think it as episode 3.5 and just see it as a seperate timeline altogether where Vader is alive, lol. Non-fans especially think this is not related to the original stories at all.

 

This is a big failure from Disney's part imo. Donnie Yen is saving alot of box office but the negative impact of that badly translated title is just too much.

 

Edited December 22, 2016 by TigerPaw

[terrestrial]

@Agafin and @TigerPaw thank you for the work!

 

I am a bit less optimistic, but I didn't really look into the competition,.. for this film, despite being interested = it is great to read other countries' members POV and experiences / research. 

[MonstersandRoy]

5 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

For Asia, in particular Chinese Speaking Territories. There is a big reason why there is a BIG drop from TFA. I read and speak Chinese as my 2nd language. I have spoken to my friends and been reading taiwan, HK(cantonese) and Mainland chinese forum. Plus places like Singapore where majority of the population are Chinese.

 

So Donnie Yen's inclusion is a huge deal. People in forums.. are saying even though they haven't watch a single star wars. They will watch it for Donnie.

 

BUT.. the issue is the title of Rogue One in Mandarin. It is not A Star Wars story. But the literal translation - is Hero Call Sign One: Star Wars Spin-off. (In chinese spinoff is written as "outside" story Wai Zhuan)

 

This title is turning alot of people off. They don't think it as episode 3.5 and just see it as a seperate timeline altogether where Vader is alive, lol. Non-fans especially think this is not related to the original stories at all.

 

This is a big failure from Disney's part imo. Donnie Yen is saving alot of box office but the negative impact of that badly translated title is just too much.

 

 

Hero Call Sign One! Hah, brilliant. Massive fail that is. Even "A Star Wars Story 1" would be a better title and that's still not good .

Edited December 22, 2016 by MonstersandRoy

[terrestrial]

Scott Mendelson ‏@ScottMendelson  3 minutes ago

#StarWars Box Office: #RogueOne Tops $200M U.S., Passing $400M Global via @Forbes by @ScottMendelson

In terms of overseas figures, it earned another $16.2 million to bring its foreign total to $182.9m and its worldwide cume to $388.1m  = will pass it today

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2016/12/22/star-wars-box-office-rogue-one-topped-200m-u-s-on-wednesday-will-top-400m-worldwide-today/#6a52874a7c01

Edited December 22, 2016 by terrestrial

[Purple Minion]

Latest international figures, as per The Numbers:

Box Office Summary Per Territory

Territory						Total Box Office	Report Date
Australia						$15,000,000	12/22/2016
Brazil						$7,400,000	12/22/2016
Bulgaria						$277,153	12/20/2016
Czech Republic						$665,504	12/20/2016
Denmark						$2,900,000	12/22/2016
France						$15,000,000	12/22/2016
Germany						$16,400,000	12/22/2016
Indonesia						$3,100,000	12/22/2016
Italy						$4,300,000	12/22/2016
Japan						$10,700,000	12/22/2016
Lithuania						$69,169	12/20/2016
Mexico						$6,700,000	12/22/2016
Netherlands						$1,871,214	12/20/2016
New Zealand						$1,543,605	12/19/2016
Philippines						$2,700,000	12/21/2016
Poland						$3,400,000	12/22/2016
Portugal						$0
Russia (CIS)						$6,600,000	12/22/2016
Slovakia						$208,345	12/20/2016
South Korea						$8,050	12/22/2016
Spain						$6,000,000	12/22/2016
Sweden						$4,300,000	12/22/2016
Turkey						$922,911	12/20/2016
United Kingdom						$31,700,000	12/22/2016
Rest of World						$41,134,049
International Total						$182,900,000	12/22/2016

[Gavin Feng]

People seemed to be casehardened for this film after the Chinese premiere. Will China be the next market which drop 50%?

[TigerPaw]

6 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

People seemed to be casehardened for this film after the Chinese premiere. Will China be the next market which drop 50%?

Why do you say so? I watched footage of the premiere, seems good so far. 
No buzz around it?

[TigerPaw]

An example of a Singaporean review after watching the film.

For non Star Wars Fan, they really have no idea what is happening.. even After watching the film. Thinking why Vader is in Episode 8. =(

 

[Gavin Feng]

1 hour ago, TigerPaw said:

Why do you say so? I watched footage of the premiere, seems good so far. 
No buzz around it?

About 72,816 users expect the film on ticking website Maoyan, which is in the same level of ST Beyond.

 

And I obvious feel that many moviegoers don’t care so much for R1 as TFA. I believe the record TFA made in worldwide offered itself significant help.

 

TFA reactions were mixed as AOU did I think. SW will be a two/three-wire franchise in China if R1 lose the WOM again.