Killimano3 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 1.6B would put it waaayyyy past the previous best first-run attendance record 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rustyspoons89 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 It will make it to 999,850,352... Disney will just leave it at that. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tokila Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 6 minutes ago, Ozymandias said: 1 billion isn't a sure thing right now. Its likely if it continues to hold well in January, but definitely not locked yet imo. yep. If next weekend is safely over 100 million then 1 billion will be a good shot. Right now we still need to see what how it holds next week. I feel really confident with 900 million, but 1 billion will need well above average holds (not Avatar, but not a typical December release either). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeyItsMoses Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Ozymandias said: 1.6b would make it #2 all time adjusted. Not happening dude lol Why wouldn't it? Did you see this grossing $150-$160m on it's SECOND weekend? What about OVER $100m on it's 3rd weekend? You're making it seem as if once it's gonna drop like a rock come 2016. It's holding really well, and it's proving that on a weekend with 5 new wide releases. It practically has no competition this month, nor January. I would love to see it come close to $1.6b (I'm predicting $1.3b at the moment), but to say that that $1b isn't a lock, when it's going to gross nearly $800m in less than 3 weeks, is just fuckin idiotic. If you guys are so confident, bet. I say it comes closer to $1.6b, than $1.1b (which is what @Elessar believes). Edited December 27, 2015 by HeyItsMoses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 3 minutes ago, HeyItsMoses said: If you guys are so confident, bet. I say it comes closer to $1.6b, than $1.1b (which is what @Elessar believes). I'm predicting $1.2b right now. I don't make bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 2 minutes ago, HeyItsMoses said: Why wouldn't it? Did you see this grossing $150-$160m on it's SECOND weekend? What about OVER $100m on it's 3rd weekend? You're making it seem as if once it's gonna drop like a rock come 2016. It's holding really well, and it's proving that on a weekend with 5 new wide releases. It practically has no competition this month, nor January. I would love to see it come close to $1.6b (I'm predicting $1.3b at the moment), but to say that that $1b isn't a lock, when it's going to gross nearly $800m in less than 3 weeks, is just fuckin idiotic. If you guys are so confident, bet. I say it comes closer to $1.6b, than $1.1b (which is what @Elessar believes). So if its at 800m next Sunday, you honestly think its could make ANOTHER 800m? Dude, pass the pipe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finnick Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Any projection for Sunday, will it pass 160M by then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deedlit Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Just now, leatherjacket said: Any projection for Sunday, will it pass 160M by then? Assuming a 58M Saturday, it would need a 9% drop or better to pass 160M, so it will probably fall just a bit short. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 2 minutes ago, leatherjacket said: Any projection for Sunday, will it pass 160M by then? I'd say $50m. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeyItsMoses Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 2 minutes ago, Ozymandias said: So if its at 800m next Sunday, you honestly think its could make ANOTHER 800m? Dude, pass the pipe. Hold up *takes another hit* make that 1.7b. Nah, I'm just fuckin with ya, lol. Seriously though, why not? Lets say it performs like Jurassic World after its 17th day, its domestic total will be $997m. But this has much better wom, released in holiday season, no competition, massive demand, holding really well with extremely high grosses in the month of December, plus it has so much nostalgia. For fucks sake, I saw it a 2nd time today with my brother, the old granny that was sitting next to him was clapping the moment she saw r2d2; who the fuck does that?! This movie is going to gross much higher than $1b, I'm hoping for $1.3b, but would love to see it hit $1.7b. I wonder what @Rth predicted for this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
langer Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 37 minutes ago, HeyItsMoses said: On its 17th day Avatar's grossed $352m, then finished its run with $749m. When TFA grosses around $765 on its 17th day and performs similar to Avatar, it will finish its run with $1.627b. That's domestic, by the way. This is not how this works... Avatar dropped 2% on its 2nd weekend and didn't have the massive previews TFA had. There is now way TFA gets a 6X-7X multiplier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Haha, I don't think $1B is a lock until we see the next week, I'm way too conservative for that. I don't want to get my hopes up, either. But, put it this way, if the next week experiences 20% declines per day from mid-week numbers to the weekend, or maybe a 25% drop on the weekend, then I guess you are right, I guess it really couldn't fail to hit $1B by that point even with just fairly mediocre holds. I'm just thinking since the mid-weeks are going to start to suck in January when everyone is back in work and school, the weekends need to hold better. The worst drop of its entire run is probably going to be between Weekends 3 and 4, in my opinion. It seems tough to argue with that given its coming off a holiday weekend, etc. BUT if next weekend is $115M, which is possible given a solid hold, then it's falling from such a high point that it will be somewhat inevitable that it comes at least close to $1B. I can't believe we're talking about this, though. If you took any reasonable person a few months ago and transported them to this forum today, and they read this stuff, they'd think we were all drunk or high. To be talking about a movie making a BILLION dollars in just the United States is absolutely unreal. It's like an alternate reality. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
langer Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 22 minutes ago, Elessar said: How is it not locked? Again, by Jan 3rd it'll be at about $800m, coming off a $100m weekend. ROTK was coming off a 28m weekend and made additional 87m, a multi of about 3. ROTK won a bunch of awards that TFA will not win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 1 minute ago, HeyItsMoses said: Hold up *takes another hit* make that 1.7b. Nah, I'm just fuckin with ya, lol. Seriously though, why not? Lets say it performs like Jurassic World after its 17th day, its domestic total will be $997m. But this has much better wom, released in holiday season, no competition, massive demand, holding really well with extremely high grosses in the month of December, plus it has so much nostalgia. For fucks sake, I saw it a 2nd time today with my brother, the old granny that was sitting next to him was clapping the moment she saw r2d2; who the fuck does that?! This movie is going to gross much higher than $1b, I'm hoping for $1.3b, but would love to see it hit $1.7b. I wonder what @Rth predicted for this. I think its just been way too fucking big to have Avatar like holds after January 3rd to get to 1.6b or more. If its at 800m by January 3rd, it will have sold more tickets than Avatar did in its whole run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killimano3 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 4 minutes ago, langer said: This is not how this works... Avatar dropped 2% on its 2nd weekend and didn't have the massive previews TFA had. There is now way TFA gets a 6X-7X multiplier. I think he was joking =P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxRox Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 But those same crowds that are giving it such eye popping numbers are in the meantime burning off enormous amounts of demand. Yeah, people are still seeing it repeatedly, but at this point how many holdouts are left, and how many people are going to still be trekking down to see it in late January and February? The truly monstrous legs of movies like Avatar and Frozen are driven by relatively small openings and word of mouth causing people to go days and weeks after it started, once they've heard about it. With this movie, everyone knew about it from the get go, so we don't have that vast pool of people to be told, "Go and see this." That's making me think we might well see sharp crashes in January, as we've burned through such an enormous audience already. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deedlit Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Just now, Elessar said: I'd say $50m. I'm thinking 48M. Just now, HeyItsMoses said: Hold up *takes another hit* make that 1.7b. Nah, I'm just fuckin with ya, lol. Seriously though, why not? Lets say it performs like Jurassic World after its 17th day, its domestic total will be $997m. But this has much better wom, released in holiday season, no competition, massive demand, holding really well with extremely high grosses in the month of December, plus it has so much nostalgia. SW7 will have rather inflated second and third weeks (meaning 12/21-1/3) due to the holiday season, and that goes away the following week. I expect a drop worse than JW on the fourth weekend. It should drop better after that, but some damage will have been done. In the end it will do better than JW, but I'm thinking 1-1.2B. Quote I wonder what @Rth predicted for this. Rth only deals in absolutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxmoser3 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 8 hours ago, theendsnotnearitshere said: Paramount is gonna make your movie! My movie will get banned. It will probably be a hard R. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxmoser3 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Awesome increase for Star Wars and ok drops for Daddy's Home and Joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warmaster506 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Star Wars is King. Get used to it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
