8M TFA Rth Monday number!!! SW7 has surpassed TA1 & F7 for 4th alltime WW!!!

[bladels]

1 hour ago, tokila said:

My concern is we have not seen if this is the leveling off point. We had a pretty bad Sunday hold followed by a very mediocre Monday. I think 1 billion is dead. An 8 mill hold puts us on course for a 38-40 mil weekend or a 55-58% drop. 

 

Also note, this is the Day that TFA and Avatar are equal. From here on out Avatar will be beating TFA each and everyday until the end of the run. 

 

TFA needs to level off like tomorrow to keep 1 bil a possibility. We see another 15%-20% drop tomorrow 1 bil is done and we need to start calculating if it can even reach 950mil (in a good scenario). 

I don't understand your math 

[movieboner]

Anyone here think TFA can outgross Titanic worldwide. That seems the prime target at the moment, Avatar's worldwide gross is impossible to reach at this point.

[kitik]

2 minutes ago, movieboner said:

Anyone here think TFA can outgross Titanic worldwide. That seems the prime target at the moment, Avatar's worldwide gross is impossible to reach at this point.

 

TFA is already at 1.5B and still going strong in many territories. I think it could hit 2B just from existing territories, not including China.

So if it can make 186M from China, that should be enough to get it over Titanic.

[stripe]

14 minutes ago, philippe08 said:

Why 8,5 Tuesday?

 

after the holidays on Tuesday, is still lower than on Monday.

 

Avatar monday : 8,094

 

Avatar tuesday : 7,327

 

Discount Tuesday. Once the weekdays are back to normal, there is a huge increase on Tuesday (20-40%) for almost all of the films.

 

If you apply Avatar's drop for Tuesday, you have to apply also Wednesday's 6% drop. And that won't happen.

[peludo]

13 minutes ago, movieboner said:

Anyone here think TFA can outgross Titanic worldwide. That seems the prime target at the moment, Avatar's worldwide gross is impossible to reach at this point.

Possible, even likely, but not locked yet. Let's see how it drops from now... and let's see China.

[kitik]

This was the all-time WW chart as of yesterday. Add in 8M and that gets it past both F7 and the Avengers. Assume that the overseas number was close to the domestic number again and it should be in the 1.528B range.

 

Rank	Title	Studio	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %		Year^
1	Avatar	Fox	$2,788.0	$760.5	27.3%	$2,027.5	72.7%	2009^
2	Titanic	Par.	$2,186.8	$658.7	30.1%	$1,528.1	69.9%	1997^
3	Jurassic World	Uni.	$1,669.0	$652.3	39.1%	$1,016.7	60.9%	2015
4	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$1,519.6	$623.4	41.0%	$896.2	59.0%	2012
5	Furious 7	Uni.	$1,515.0	$353.0	23.3%	$1,162.0	76.7%	2015
6	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$1,512.7	$742.2	49.1%	$770.5	50.9%	2015
7	Avengers: Age of Ultron	BV	$1,405.0	$459.0	32.7%	$946.0	67.3%	2015
8	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	$1,341.5	$381.0	28.4%	$960.5	71.6%	2011
9	Frozen	BV	$1,276.5	$400.7	31.4%	$875.7	68.6%	2013
10	Iron Man 3	BV	$1,215.4	$409.0	33.7%	$806.4	66.3%	2013

[23IsEverywhere]

I think it will easily out gross titanic, with about $200m + still to come from China

[baumer]

1 hour ago, eXtacy said:

Would not say its a good hold, fairly average.

 

Average based on what?  You can't compare this film to Avatar.  They are following completely different paths now.  Return of the King fell 68% on its first Monday.  Desolation of Smaug fell 66%.  Falling 63% is far from average, it actually pretty good.  The week day numbers aren't really going to determine whether or not this hits a billion or not, its the weekend numbers.  But calling this an average hold is wrong.  I was expecting a 7.2-7.4 Monday.  This number surprises me in a good way.

 

 

1 hour ago, tokila said:

My concern is we have not seen if this is the leveling off point. We had a pretty bad Sunday hold followed by a very mediocre Monday. I think 1 billion is dead. An 8 mill hold puts us on course for a 38-40 mil weekend or a 55-58% drop. 

 

Also note, this is the Day that TFA and Avatar are equal. From here on out Avatar will be beating TFA each and everyday until the end of the run. 

 

TFA needs to level off like tomorrow to keep 1 bil a possibility. We see another 15%-20% drop tomorrow 1 bil is done and we need to start calculating if it can even reach 950mil (in a good scenario). 

 

Bad Sunday hold?  In what universe is a the best hold in the top 12 and a 37.5% drop on a back to school Sunday a "bad drop"?  There is nothing remotely bad about that drop.  If you are comparing it to Avatar, then you are forgetting that TFA at the same point in their run is 400 million ahead of Avatar.  Avatar is not the right film to compare it to.  SW is a beast unto itself.  And why would we see a 15-20% drop on Tuesday?  If anything it will go up by about 8-10%.  Wednesday it'll probably drop by 25-30% because that's just how films behave when people are back to school.  

 

With an 8 mill Monday, imo, that puts it on pace for a 50 mill weekend.  

 

I just don't understand how anyone can say that this hold is bad or mediocre.  It's actually better than most films first post holiday Monday.  There's the terrific website you may have heard of called boxofficemojo.com  You should use it before calling a 63% mediocre.  

[peludo]

12 minutes ago, 23IsEverywhere said:

I think it will easily out gross titanic, with about $200m + still to come from China

If we asume the same split 50/50 DOM/OS and another $250m from both US and OS, TFA will be barely over $2 billion. It needs about 150-160 from China to beat Titanic. And that is the prediction that experts are saying. It is going to be very close.

Edited January 5, 2016 by peludo

[baumer]

35 minutes ago, movieboner said:

Anyone here think TFA can outgross Titanic worldwide. That seems the prime target at the moment, Avatar's worldwide gross is impossible to reach at this point.

 

30 minutes ago, kitik said:

 

TFA is already at 1.5B and still going strong in many territories. I think it could hit 2B just from existing territories, not including China.

So if it can make 186M from China, that should be enough to get it over Titanic.

 

Yes, it will.  I know nothing is locked yet, but imo it hits north of 2 billion without China.  It also just came off a 96 million dollar international weekend.  Surely it can get at least another 250 million from here on out without China.

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, peludo said:

If we asume the same split 50/50 DOM/OS and another $250m from both US and OS, TFA will be barely over $2 billion. It needs about 150-160 from China to beat Titanic. And that is the prediction that experts are saying. It is going to be very close.

 

That's assuming everything stays the same from here and international.  Internationally is outpacing it a little right now. If it makes 150 million in China, which is what a lot of the posters in that forum are predictiing, then i think it has a shot.

[Noctis]

TFA's run is so gigantic that its huge numbers have become boring now. That is a compliment btw lol

 

 

[terrestrial]

32 minutes ago, movieboner said:

Anyone here think TFA can outgross Titanic worldwide.

Not sure if that is meant as a statement or a question. Also not sure if anyone is meant as everyone or not, something sounds off to my mostly self-trained English ears.

If it is a statement about everyone, then no, not everyone, I've read a few doubts too.

If meant as anyone, than I seem not to grasp why/what you mean/whom you mean (or seek?) as you wrote the first sentence?

[stripe]

13 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:

There's the terrific website you may have heard of called boxofficemojo.com  You should use it before calling a 63% mediocre.  

 

Terrific in which way? 

[baumer]

Well, it's the only website out there that has numbers on a daily basis, Stripe.  So for that reason alone, it's pretty awesome.

[The Futurist]

Just now, Baumer Fett said:

Well, it's the only website out there that has numbers on a daily basis, Stripe.  So for that reason alone, it's pretty awesome.

 

They belong to fucking Jeff Bezos I think, just like IMDB.

[peludo]

14 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:

 

That's assuming everything stays the same from here and international.  Internationally is outpacing it a little right now. If it makes 150 million in China, which is what a lot of the posters in that forum are predictiing, then i think it has a shot.

Probably. I just prefer to be cautious. But yes, some international markets are quite more leggy than US (Japan is the best example), so the split should start to be high 40s/low 50s (always without taking into account China). I think this can reach 2.25b.

Edited January 5, 2016 by peludo

[baumer]

its going to be close unless of course China blows up and gives us a 300 mill present.

[baumer]

8 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

 

They belong to fucking Jeff Bezos I think, just like IMDB.

 

Regardless of who they belong to, any time any one of us needs info on a film, we all go to Mojo.

[terrestrial]

China:

I think I read there is hope now for a bit more as the actual advertising campaign seems to be pretty impressive and maybe there got another movie's release date moved, not sure from when to when and if it might even have an impact.

I still hold on the ~ $150m so (and even less would be IMHO nothing 'bad'), as I prefer in general the conservative hopes over enthusiastic 'sureness'.