Weekend Estimates (Page 28): Kung Fu Panda 3 - 41M, The Finest Hours 0- 10.3M, The Revenant - 12.4M...Sunday holds better than expected.....SW over 11 mill and KFP3 over 41 pg 34

[Ethan Hunt]

Just now, nilephelan said:

Lol.  Suicide Squad is not making $340m domestic.  It will be lucky to make $200m domestic.  

Yeah okay

[GiantCALBears]

2 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

Age of Ultron disappointed (although it was still a huge hit and a huge success and it's silly to think it was a disappointment). So did Mockingjay: Part II. Yes, there was overperformance in 2015. There was also underperformance. The same will be true in 2016. 

Fair point, I seem to forget those 2 films were released last year. Probably for that exact reason you mentioned.

[CJohn]

12 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

I was thinking his Dory number was too small

 

 

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Rogue One is a real unknown, anything is possible.

Dory seems pretty reasonable.

My Suicide Squad prediction is pretty sane compared to some others on here

Zootopia is my no guts no glory prediction this year. I've explained countless times why I think it'll be gigantic.

ID2 and FB seem pretty reasonable.

Bourne is slightly higher than Supremacy adjusted; if it's on the level of Ultimatum that number is definitely achievable. 

There is 0% chance Rogue One drops less than 50% from Episode 7.

Toy Story 3 (and this is for Ethan as well, that is why I quote both of you here) did 415M. It can only go down from there for Dory.

Suicide Squad will be lucky to do 250M.

Zootopia is indeed insane. Reasonable number is 215-225M DOM total.

ID2 and FB do not seem reasonable at all. You are saying FB is gonna do more than MJ2 without only major character/star from the original saga returning? Nope. And ID2 won't do the same as the 1996 movie. 

Bourne should do 195-205M, same level as MI5 and Spectre.

2 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

Lol.  Suicide Squad is not making $340m domestic.  It will be lucky to make $200m domestic.  

LOOOOL. It won't do 340M of course, but it will do around 210-230M DOM. It won't go below 200M, that is a sure thing.

[kayumanggi]

I think there'll be more 200 M films this year. The animation and superhero (or villain lol) genres look really strong.

[CoolioD1]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

LOOOOL. It won't do 340M of course, but it will do around 210-230M DOM. It won't go below 200M, that is a sure thing.

it doesn't make any sense for 210 to be your minimum but 11 mil lower than that is RIDICULOUS NEVER GONNA HAPPEN.

[TLK]

Suicide Squad looks a bit out there but if it gets GOTG reception then $250-330 million can happen.

 

I am less bullish on Bourne. Damon is back but they lost something when they made the previous movie. It will need MI5 type reception to match MI5.

[CJohn]

Just now, CoolioD1 said:

it doesn't make any sense for 210 to be your minimum but 11 mil lower than that is RIDICULOUS NEVER GONNA HAPPEN.

He clearly thinks it is gonna be well below 200M. At least that is what his post makes it look like. If he thinks it is gonna do 199M then yeah, I guess it is not ridiculous. 

[WrathOfHan]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

 

There is 0% chance Rogue One drops less than 50% from Episode 7.

Toy Story 3 (and this is for Ethan as well, that is why I quote both of you here) did 415M. It can only go down from there for Dory.

Suicide Squad will be lucky to do 250M.

Zootopia is indeed insane. Reasonable number is 215-225M DOM total.

ID2 and FB do not seem reasonable at all. You are saying FB is gonna do more than MJ2 without only major character/star from the original saga returning? Nope. And ID2 won't do the same as the 1996 movie. 

Bourne should do 195-205M, same level as MI5 and Spectre.

LOOOOL. It won't do 340M of course, but it will do around 210-230M DOM. It won't go below 200M, that is a sure thing.

Mockingjay 2 isn't a fair comparison. Fantastic Beasts isn't coming off a mediocre sequel and will probably have hype unlike MJP2.

[Water Bottle]

9 minutes ago, TLK said:

 

Harry Potter movies have always been more fan-driven than LOTR movies. WOM is definitely a factor but even assuming that FB gets WOM similar to a good HP movie, I am not sure is it has a potential beyond $250 million. The teaser trailer looked like a scene from the HP movie with Redmayne in the lead instead of the three familiar characters.

 

 What the hell does this even mean? That LOTR's grosses were contributed a lot by people who hated the franchise? Or that Harry Potter had a fanbase that averaged $300 million per movie but that Lord of the Ring's fanbase was somehow smaller despite averaging more?

 

I'm not saying Fantastic Beasts is going to do more or less than $250 million at this point. Spin-off films can be difficult to pull off and a lot depends on marketing. But to put an arbitrary ceiling on it is at this point premature.

[Wrath]

Hmm. No change from those nutty 13/4.5/4 friday numbers yet, eh?

[EmpireCity]

20 minutes ago, CJohn said:

He clearly thinks it is gonna be well below 200M. At least that is what his post makes it look like. If he thinks it is gonna do 199M then yeah, I guess it is not ridiculous. 

 

I think it will do well, but $340 is a joke.  Freaking Man of Steel couldn't even do $300m, and that was with a ton of hype and Nolan behind it.  

 

Guardians of the Galaxy didn't even do $340m.  

[baumer]

Haven't we learned out lesson yet?  Cjohn especially you, not just you of course, but there are so many people here saying that Film A won't earn more than 250 mill, or that film B won't earn less than 300 mill.  Right now no one knows anything.  It's impossible at this point.  We're all just guessing so putting some arbitrary cap on what a film will or will not make is pointless.

 

Suicide Squad could make 200 mill, it could make 400 mill and maybe Bourne had a kick ass trailer and nostalgia propels it over 300.  Right now, in January of 2016, it's impossible to know what a film will make.  You can make predictions but laughing at other people's predictions is dangerous.  

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, Baumer said:

Haven't we learned out lesson yet?  Cjohn especially you, not just you of course, but there are so many people here saying that Film A won't earn more than 250 mill, or that film B won't earn less than 300 mill.  Right now no one knows anything.  It's impossible at this point.  We're all just guessing so putting some arbitrary cap on what a film will or will not make is pointless.

 

Suicide Squad could make 200 mill, it could make 400 mill and maybe Bourne had a kick ass trailer and nostalgia propels it over 300.  Right now, in January of 2016, it's impossible to know what a film will make.  You can make predictions but laughing at other people's predictions is dangerous.  

 Dafuq is this? Only Tele has the right to post logical and compelling posts. You are not Tele, Baumer.  

[TalismanRing]

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/kung-fu-panda-3-box-office-1201692297/

 

02:47PM PT

 

Panda 3:  $13m / $44m+

Finest Hours: $4m  /$11m w/e

50 Shades: $3.2m  / $8-9 w/e

Revenent: $10 w/e

Star Wars: 9m w/e

Janie's Got A Gun: $900k w/e

 

[Wrath]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/kung-fu-panda-3-box-office-1201692297/

 

02:47PM PT

 

Panda 3:  $13m / $44m+

Finest Hours: $4m  /$11m w/e

50 Shades: $3.2m  / $8-9 w/e

Revenent: $10 w/e

Star Wars: 9m w/e

Janie's Got A Gun: $900k w/e

 

 

Ok, that all sounds a little more credible.

 

Edit - I mean, I don't know if they'll end up being right or not, but they don't seem obviously wrong like the last ones.

Edited January 30, 2016 by Wrath

[Water Bottle]

4 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

 

I think it will do well, but $340 is a joke.  Freaking Man of Steel couldn't even do $300m, and that was with a ton of hype and Nolan behind it.  

 

Guardians of the Galaxy didn't even do $340m.  

 

Adjusted it does. Which means that Suicide Squad could sell less tickets than Guardians of the Galaxy and still make $330 million.

 

Man of Steel couldn't hit $300 million because of a mixed reception. It had an amazing marketing campaign though (which is why it opened to over $100 million) but after OW, it's WOM that matters. If Suicide Squad has amazing WOM and an amazing marketing campaign, then yeah it could do $340 million especially if Batman vs. Superman has good WOM (which is unlikely considering Zack Snyder's record).

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/kung-fu-panda-3-box-office-1201692297/

 

02:47PM PT

 

Panda 3:  $13m / $44m+

Finest Hours: $4m  /$11m w/e

50 Shades: $3.2m  / $8-9 w/e

Revenent: $10 w/e

Star Wars: 9m w/e

Janie's Got A Gun: $900k w/e

 

 

 

So Variety:

 

[EmpireCity]

9 minutes ago, Baumer said:

Haven't we learned out lesson yet?  Cjohn especially you, not just you of course, but there are so many people here saying that Film A won't earn more than 250 mill, or that film B won't earn less than 300 mill.  Right now no one knows anything.  It's impossible at this point.  We're all just guessing so putting some arbitrary cap on what a film will or will not make is pointless.

 

Suicide Squad could make 200 mill, it could make 400 mill and maybe Bourne had a kick ass trailer and nostalgia propels it over 300.  Right now, in January of 2016, it's impossible to know what a film will make.  You can make predictions but laughing at other people's predictions is dangerous.  

 

What lesson?  This is a box office discussion and prediction site.  If we all sat here twiddling our thumbs and never going out on a limb when it comes to numbers it would be a pretty boring place.  

 

Also, it is not really accurate to say no one knows anything, and it certainly isn't impossible to have a pretty accurate prediction.  We only find out when the movie opens and goes through its run, but to think people can't call some of this stuff pretty well is also not accurate.  

 

I don't think it is pointless, it is what the forum is set up for.  FYI, I openly laugh at $340m for Suicide Squad.  I don't feel bad about that, and pretty damn sure I will be right.  

[GiantCALBears]

17 minutes ago, Baumer said:

Haven't we learned out lesson yet?  Cjohn especially you, not just you of course, but there are so many people here saying that Film A won't earn more than 250 mill, or that film B won't earn less than 300 mill.  Right now no one knows anything.  It's impossible at this point.  We're all just guessing so putting some arbitrary cap on what a film will or will not make is pointless.

 

Suicide Squad could make 200 mill, it could make 400 mill and maybe Bourne had a kick ass trailer and nostalgia propels it over 300.  Right now, in January of 2016, it's impossible to know what a film will make.  You can make predictions but laughing at other people's predictions is dangerous.  

Lol that's what we do here, this post is nonsense.

[baumer]

7 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

 

What lesson?  This is a box office discussion and prediction site.  If we all sat here twiddling our thumbs and never going out on a limb when it comes to numbers it would be a pretty boring place.  

 

Also, it is not really accurate to say no one knows anything, and it certainly isn't impossible to have a pretty accurate prediction.  We only find out when the movie opens and goes through its run, but to think people can't call some of this stuff pretty well is also not accurate.  

 

I don't think it is pointless, it is what the forum is set up for.  FYI, I openly laugh at $340m for Suicide Squad.  I don't feel bad about that, and pretty damn sure I will be right.  

 

My post was defending you @nilephelan.  I was basically telling Cjohn that him telling you that you were nuts for making the prediction that you did, was wrong.  

 

The point of my post is that no one really knows anything.

 

As for you @GiantCALBears, you're always stirring up nonsense yourself.  I was simply saying that when one poster tells another poster that "there is a 0% chance" that something happens, more times than not they end up with egg on their face.