The 2016 Comic Book Movie-Mageddon thread. Rank the 2016 CBMs against each other in this thread. Read first post for more details.

[Daxtreme]

Alright let's go.

 

Deadpool - 135 OW, 375M total

Batman v Superman - 160M OW, 410M total

Civil War - 180M OW, 460M total

X-Men Apocalypse - 90M OW, 235M total (exactly like DOFP)

Suicide Squad - 100M OW, 300M total

Doctor Strange - 80M OW, 205M total

[jj99]

At least one is bound to under perform.

 

They can't all be a success.

[Kalo]

Deadpool $345-365m ($360m)

Batman V Superman $385-435m ($415m)

Captain America: Civil War $365-$435m ($425m)

X-Men Apocalypse $200-$240m ($235m)

Suicide Squad $300-$370m ($350m)

Doctor Strange $175-$235m ($210m)

Edited February 22, 2016 by Kalo

[Talkie]

On 2/22/2016 at 7:43 AM, jj99 said:

At least one is bound to under perform.

 

They can't all be a success.

 

They can't? 

[Kalo]

On 2/23/2016 at 5:08 PM, Talkie said:

 

They can't? 

 

in 2014 every superhero film was technically a success. I believe all this year will have varying degrees of success as well.

[grey ghost]

Worldwide I think they will all be successes, ranging in gross from 500 m to 1.4 b.

[drakeyuuhi]

On 2/22/2016 at 7:43 AM, jj99 said:

They can't all be a success.

 

From what I'm seeing for Civil war? it going be bad.

No superhero registration act (whole part of the civil war) 

black panther (on ironman side not captain) 

These just two of the things they doing wrong in this movie.

At first it looked great but more we learn about it? The less it looks good. 

[Ethan Hunt]

1 minute ago, drakeyuuhi said:

 

From what I'm seeing for Civil war? it going be bad.

No superhero registration act (whole part of the civil war) 

black panther (on ironman side not captain) 

These just two of the things they doing wrong in this movie.

At first it looked great but more we learn about it? The less it looks good. 

 

[Folking]

On 2/15/2016 at 7:01 PM, Folking said:

1. CW (550 DM)

2. DS (340)

3. DP (320 DM)

4. BVS (310 DM)

5. XA (180 DM)

6. SS (105 DM)

 

I Am Changing My Predictions.

 

1. CW (580 DM)

2. DS (360 DM)

3. BVS (350 DM)

4. DP (330 DM)

5. XA (210 DM)

6. SS  (120 DM)

[WrathOfHan]

10 minutes ago, Folking said:

 

I Am Changing My Predictions.

 

1. CW (580 DM)

2. DS (360 DM)

3. BVS (350 DM)

4. DP (330 DM)

5. XA (210 DM)

6. SS  (120 DM)

lol

[ChipDerby]

On 2/15/2016 at 10:20 AM, ChipMunky said:

Early thoughts...

 

OW:

1. BvS ($160-190 mil)

2. SS ($100-140 mil)

3. CW ($95-140 mil)

4. DP ($132 mil)

5. XA ($75-100 mil)

6. DS ($40-90 mil)

 

Total:

1. SS ($300-500 mil)

2. BvS ($350-450 mil)

3. DP ($300-340 mil)

4. CW ($275-350 mil)

5. XA ($200-250 mil)

6. DS ($125-175 mil)

 

Updated my ranks/numbers a little bit.

[langer]

1. BvS : 435M$

2. CA- CW : 420M$

3. Deadpool : 355M$

4. SS : 275M$
5. X-Men : 200M$

6. Doctor Strange : 170M$

[DAR]

1.  BvS-$415

2.  CW-$405

3.  Deadpool-$365

4.  SS-$240

5.  X-Men-$215

6.  Dr. Strange-$180

[MattW]

Completely useless Thursday preview comparison :

 

BvS: 22-26

Civil War: 15-25

Apocalypse: 10-12

Suicide Squad: 10-15

Dr Strange: 4-7

 

 

[a2k]

On 2/24/2016 at 3:50 AM, Kalo said:

 

in 2014 every superhero film was technically a success. I believe all this year will have varying degrees of success as well.

 

This year too they can all be success technically but I feel at least a couple will under-perform.

 

In 2014 there were 4 films which grossed 202m, 234m, 260m and 333m for a total of 1029m.

This year we have DP, CW, BvS averaging ~350m for a cume of 1050m...more than the entire 2014 cume.

Then SS, X:A, DS yet to come.

[langer]

On ‎2‎/‎24‎/‎2016 at 4:20 PM, Kalo said:

 

in 2014 every superhero film was technically a success. I believe all this year will have varying degrees of success as well.

 

I wouldn't consider a franchise killer to be a success.  TASM2 was not a success. 

[Kalo]

54 minutes ago, langer said:

 

I wouldn't consider a franchise killer to be a success.  TASM2 was not a success. 

 

Financially it was, it made over $700m. if it had been well received they would have gone along with the sequel they were planing. in fact it only made $5m less the Captain America 2. which is considered a resounding success. sure they were pretty stupid with the budget and the marketing went way out of hand. but in the end it actually made the studio some money, I said technically. and yes TAMSP2 was the bottom on that list, and definitely did not make the studio what they were hoping for. but it still made a lot of money.

Edited March 8, 2016 by Kalo

[langer]

TASM2 nearly didn't break even on the theatrical run which is usually the bar for success.  There's also a difference between making some money (after production and marketing costs are paid) and getting an expected return on investment.   TASM 2 was even worse on DOM HV compared to TWS (28% under TWS, while it was 23% under for DOM gross). 

 

Captain America was able to reach similar gross with 2/3 the budget of TASM2.

 

Anyway, I'm not arguing that it didn't make any money.  I'm just arguing that it didn't make enough to be considered a success. 

[Kalo]

I think my thread for Captain America over BvS, should be unlocked. it was made long before anyone started Deadpool craze. and they are both arguably the biggest comic book films of the year and they are easily the most comparable.  

 

[ZattMurdock]

9 minutes ago, MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie said:

 

From a couple months back when Devin Faraci was reporting on the high test scores the film was getting:

 

Further, my sources tell me that the movie doesn't pull any punches in the third act, and that if Marvel execs had been concerned about the film going dark places, these stellar test screenings have alleviated all those fears.

 

Also, there's this from two days ago, that I imagine it only got a hell lot bigger after today:

 

Quote

It likely won't match the opening of Captain America: Civil War (May 6), which is "tracking through the roof," Dergarabedian says. Marvel has ruled that first weekend in May, with The Avengers debuting with $207.4 million in 2012 (No. 2 of all time) and its Age of Ultron sequel scoring $191.3 million last year.

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/movies/2016/03/08/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-box-office-projections/81448412/

 

And for those asking themselves who Dergarabedian is, here you go:

 

Quote

Rentrak’s Senior Media Analyst and well-known box office expert, Paul Dergarabedian, shares interviews with industry experts, informative graphics and insightful analyses on everything from box office and Video on Demand to home entertainment and television on his blog, “The Big Picture.” In his posts, Paul explores Movies & TV Everywhere trends and insights from screens big and small throughout the industry - because, as the blog’s tagline states, “It takes many small screens to get the big picture.”

http://www.rentrak.com/section/our_services/rentrakinsights/media_insights.html

 

I don't think this guy is taking his numbers out of guesses, but hard data. The problem though is that we don't have access to it.