Weekend Estimates (Page 25): Zootopia 73.7M | London Has Fallen 21.71M | Deadpool 16.4M | WTF 7.6M

[MCKillswitch123]

Doubt it. Allegiant will almost surely take the 3rd weekend.

 

And even next week, 10 Cloverfield Lane is expected to open at 30M, and an overperformance (maybe thanks to favorable WOM... assuming people won't be mad about a potential realization of the obvious fear of no real connection to Cloverfield the way they expected) could be in play (as could as underperformance, but slightly less likely I presume). Zootopia's 2nd weekend drop would have to be at the bare minimum under 60% to beat Cloverfield. Possible, but not too heavily.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

So DEADPOOL over GOTG?

Yes

 

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

Hey guys! I'm new here but I've been lurking around for a while. Figured I might as well create an account by now. 

Quick question in regards to Zootopia. I see a lot of people saying there isn't any competition for it until mid-April but wouldn't BvS be considered competition? I know they're two different movies but they're both movies geared towards well everyone. Just wondering how that works. 

Also is that a good hold for Deadpool? I have it out-grossing GOTG...

Welcome! BVS is competition but not direct competition. Many families will go to BVS but it isn't a "Family" movie.

[picores]

3 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

So DEADPOOL over GOTG?

 

Definitely. 350m looking good. 340m as low end.

 

 

 

 

[AniNate]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

Hey guys! I'm new here but I've been lurking around for a while. Figured I might as well create an account by now. 

Quick question in regards to Zootopia. I see a lot of people saying there isn't any competition for it until mid-April but wouldn't BvS be considered competition? I know they're two different movies but they're both movies geared towards well everyone. Just wondering how that works. 

Also is that a good hold for Deadpool? I have it out-grossing GOTG...

 

BvS would probably be a bigger deal if Zootopia didn't have strong word of mouth. As it is Zootopia is a very desirable option for families that they wouldn't mind seeing instead

 

Welcome to Box Office Theory! 

[a2k]

75m is happening. 3.65x will give it 275m dom.

KFP3 is gonna do 3.60-3.65x with smaller numbers but Zootopia is a breakout hit so it should be able to match that multiplier despite bigger numbers.

[GiantCALBears]

Increased $1.5m from Variety estimates? Not bad, major ? is the bump today.

[Ethan Hunt]

 Making plans to see Zootopia tonight

[Ezen Baklattan]

14 minutes ago, Nova said:

Hey guys! I'm new here but I've been lurking around for a while. Figured I might as well create an account by now. 

Quick question in regards to Zootopia. I see a lot of people saying there isn't any competition for it until mid-April but wouldn't BvS be considered competition? I know they're two different movies but they're both movies geared towards well everyone. Just wondering how that works. 

Also is that a good hold for Deadpool? I have it out-grossing GOTG...

 

Welcome to the forums!

 

If IO coexisted with Jurassic World, along with Frozen and Catching Fire, Zootopia will be just fine. Even then, BVS is hitting at the fourth weekend, Zootopia won't be making as much then.

 

And Deadpool's doing quite solid. Passing GOTG is definitely likely, at this point.

[Dingdong123]

11 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Doubt it. Allegiant will almost surely take the 3rd weekend.

 

And even next week, 10 Cloverfield Lane is expected to open at 30M, and an overperformance (maybe thanks to favorable WOM... assuming people won't be mad about a potential realization of the obvious fear of no real connection to Cloverfield the way they expected) could be in play (as could as underperformance, but slightly less likely I presume). Zootopia's 2nd weekend drop would have to be at the bare minimum under 60% to beat Cloverfield. Possible, but not too heavily.

 

1. Zootopia isn't a sequel, and therefore it rush factor or frontloadedness isn't its game.

 

2. Zootopia is an entirely original property, not based on any existing material or story. Therefore it isn't likely again to be frontloaded.

 

3. Zootopia has glowing reviews. By glowing I mean almost perfect. 98% on RT and A cinemascore. Therefore audience with the WOM ain't gonna drop it hard enough for it to drop by 60%.

 

Well I guess you've said it already. 60% drop is possible but not likely to happen.

[AniNate]

I wouldn't even say there's a chance of a 50% drop for Zootopia. It's a Disney movie with really good word-of-mouth and the only real option for kids right now.

[narniadis]

17 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Doubt it. Allegiant will almost surely take the 3rd weekend.

 

And even next week, 10 Cloverfield Lane is expected to open at 30M, and an overperformance (maybe thanks to favorable WOM... assuming people won't be mad about a potential realization of the obvious fear of no real connection to Cloverfield the way they expected) could be in play (as could as underperformance, but slightly less likely I presume). Zootopia's 2nd weekend drop would have to be at the bare minimum under 60% to beat Cloverfield. Possible, but not too heavily.

 

Making sure I am understanding you but you really think that Zootopia falls a possible 60% next weekend? Read some on MOJO or the threads here and realize that would be the anamoly, not Cloverfield winning. Zootopia has a better chance of hitting 50m next weekend than Cloverfield had of being #1. In other words it's not happening. (Not that I think Zoo will top 50 either but 45m wouldn't surprise me depending on how it plays during the week.)

[AniNate]

They might have The Good Dinosaur in mind thinking a 60% drop is anywhere within the realm of possibility. The week after Thanksgiving is always a big comedown and that movie didn't have a very good reception anyway even though they're wrong...

[DAR]

Even with BvS, Zootopia should play fairly well until Jungle Book

[MCKillswitch123]

6 minutes ago, Dingdong123 said:

 

1. Zootopia isn't a sequel, and therefore it rush factor or frontloadedness isn't its game.

 

2. Zootopia is an entirely original property, not based on any existing material or story. Therefore it isn't likely again to be frontloaded.

 

3. Zootopia has glowing reviews. By glowing I mean almost perfect. 98% on RT and A cinemascore. Therefore audience with the WOM ain't gonna drop it hard enough for it to drop by 60%.

 

Well I guess you've said it already. 60% drop is possible but not likely to happen.

 

3 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

Making sure I am understanding you but you really think that Zootopia falls a possible 60% next weekend? Read some on MOJO or the threads here and realize that would be the anamoly, not Cloverfield winning. Zootopia has a better chance of hitting 50m next weekend than Cloverfield had of being #1. In other words it's not happening. (Not that I think Zoo will top 50 either but 45m wouldn't surprise me depending on how it plays during the week.)

 

Yeah, I see you guys' points. I guess this would be a good example of a Lego Movie effect. Tbh, I kinda want Cloverfield to win and be a hit, so I'm probably just spouting gibberish in delusion. In all likeliness, Zootopia will probably drop about 37 to 40%, and it does have a chance at doing ~50M or move. Lego dropped under 30% in its 2nd weekend, so even that is in the cards.

 

Still think that Allegiant will topple ZT's 3rd week, though. I know the hype is low for this one, but the 1st two opened above 50M, and even if Allegiant opens 15-20M less, that probably could barely outweigh what I expect to be a ~40% drop for ZT.

[Jake Gittes]

I like how Spectre's PTA jumped almost 100% compared to last Friday, Sony's getting ready for that Grimsby fudge next week

[Intergalactic Ping Pong]

26 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Yes

 

Welcome! BVS is competition but not direct competition. Many families will go to BVS but it isn't a "Family" movie.

 

To piggyback off this idea, we should look at the the category of Families with children under 10. 

 

Of all that would take their kids to the movies, I suspect perhaps 1 in 5 families would take their kids to BvS.

 

On the other hand, conservatively, 3 in 5 families would take their kids to Zootopia at some point. So for BvS's opening weekend, Zootopia might lose around 33% of that segment temporarily. But those families in that 33% may have already taken their kids to see Zootopia already, or will do so at some point anyways, regardless of BvS. 

 

If Zootopia has amazing WOM, then that number might jump to 4 in 5 families (or even higher), especially given that besides KFP3, there isn't any kids' animated competition in the marketplace for around 6 weeks. 

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

 

Yeah, I see you guys' points. I guess this would be a good example of a Lego Movie effect. Tbh, I kinda want Cloverfield to win and be a hit, so I'm probably just spouting gibberish in delusion. In all likeliness, Zootopia will probably drop about 37 to 40%, and it does have a chance at doing ~50M or move. Lego dropped under 30% in its 2nd weekend, so even that is in the cards.

 

Still think that Allegiant will topple ZT's 3rd week, though. I know the hype is low for this one, but the 1st two opened above 50M, and even if Allegiant opens 15-20M less, that probably could barely outweigh what I expect to be a ~40% drop for ZT.

 

We shall see, I don't expect a fall over -40% until the week of BVS which at that point is only because of screen/showtime losses

 

and if it drops -40% next weekend (~45m from a 75m Opening) then it would be around 27m with another ~40% drop on weekend 3 which should still be enough to topple Allegiant (from my perspective.) For the sake of the box office I would love for these numbers to be worse case scenarios and for Allegiant to open to 50m (imagine have every march weekend helmed by a 50m+grosser) but I just don't see it based on reality. 

 

The boxoffice is great at proving "nevers" and "always" wrong from time to time to keep us on our toes.

 

Also if you want a more recent example that is not TGD, KFP3 would have dropped under 40% on weekend #2 if not for the superbowl so 40% and under is a good target in general for this time of year as the films are propped up by weekend grosses due to lower weekdays.

 

Not picking on ya - we more seasoned followers (God, it's hard to believe I am in that group now at 12+ years) want to give you the best ways of looking at outcomes based off of our experiences both good and bad.

[narniadis]

4 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

I like how Spectre's PTA jumped almost 100% compared to last Friday, Sony's getting ready for that Grimsby fudge next week

 

for sure - not only that but it's gross is +26% from last Friday!

 

We are going to see a Tangled / Pirates 4 style bump next weekend (so delicious this fudge is)

[WrathOfHan]

6 minutes ago, Intergalactic Ping Pong said:

 

To piggyback off this idea, we should look at the the category of Families with children under 10. 

 

Of all that would take their kids to the movies, I suspect perhaps 1 in 5 families would take their kids to BvS.

 

On the other hand, conservatively, 3 in 5 families would take their kids to Zootopia at some point. So for BvS's opening weekend, Zootopia might lose around 33% of that segment temporarily. But those families in that 33% may have already taken their kids to see Zootopia already, or will do so at some point anyways, regardless of BvS. 

 

If Zootopia has amazing WOM, then that number might jump to 4 in 5 families (or even higher), especially given that besides KFP3, there isn't any kids' animated competition in the marketplace for around 6 weeks. 

KFP will be below 600 theaters Easter weekend probably

[PanaMovie]

Why is BoxOffice only projecting a 70.3M OW for Zootopia?

 

Thats a low IM (3.61)