WEEKEND ESTIMATES: ‘The Grey’ $15+M, ‘One For The Money’ $12+M, ‘Man On A Ledge’ $6+M

[JamesFord92]

New update from Nikki:

FRIDAY 9:30 PM, 2ND UPDATE: Sources are telling me that the No. 1 movie at the North American box office is projected as Open Road Films acquisition of Liam Neeson-starrer The Grey with $6.2M for today and $17.6M for the weekend from 3,185 locations. At No. 2 is Lionsgate’s opener One For The Money starring Katherine Heigl and based on the Janet Evanovich’s bestselling novel (which came on stronger than the disaster which Hollywood thought it would be) with $4.5M for today and $12.4M for the weekend from 2,737 runs. After that, one-week-old Underworld Awakening is #3 from Screen Gems/Sony Pictures and Red Tails #4 from LucasFilm/Fox had decent Friday holds. All the way back in 5th place is Summit Entertainment’s new actioner Man On A Ledge with Sam Worthington which is a very weak $2.3M for today and $6.7M for the weekend from 2,998 theaters. That’s worse than what the studio projected. But grosses for both One For the Money and Man On A Ledge come with asterisks because of Groupon/Living Social discounted movie ticket deals so Lionsgate/Summit don’t collect much of that money. (The exhibitors get the lions share.) And that discount prevented the Marcus Theatre chain from playing One For The Money in the midwest.

Numbers will be refined later with full analysis:

1. The Grey (Open Road) NEW [3,185 Theaters]

Estimated Friday $6.2M, Estimated Weekend $17.6M

2. One For the Money* (Lionsgate) NEW [2,737 Theaters]

Estimated Friday $4.5M, Estimated Weekend $12.4M

3. Underworld Awakening (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 2 [3,078 Theaters]

Estimated Friday $3M, Estimated Weekend $9.5M, Estimated Cume $42.2M

4. Red Tails (LucasFilm/Fox)Week 2 [2,573 Theaters]

Estimated Friday $2.5M, Estimated Weekend $8.7M, Estimated Cume $32.1M)

5. Man On A Ledge* (Summit) NEW [2,998 Theaters]

Estimated Friday $2.3M, Estimated Weekend $6.7M

http://www.deadline....r-the-money-5m/

Edited January 28, 2012 by JamesFord92

[grey ghost]

I guess Sam Worthington doesn't have much star power.

[TLK]

But grosses for both One For the Money and Man On A Ledge come with asterisks because of Groupon/Living Social discounted movie ticket deals so Lionsgate/Summit don’t collect much of that money. (The exhibitors get the lions share.) And that discount prevented the Marcus Theatre chain from playing One For The Money in the midwest.

So why is Lionsgate going with Groupons? Do they think more eyeballs in theatres will lead to more DVD sales? It isn't that DVD market is doing that hot either.

[lab276]

More eyeballs in the theatre is better for everyone.

[fmpro]

The Grey is going to have a good opening. I will never bet against Neeson again. That guy is a box office God. Just watch Wrath of the Titans and Battleship doing 500M+ WW.Good for One for the Money. Heigl is still a draw, even if the movie is a piece of shit.Man on a Ledge deserved more. 10M at least. That movie was awesome.

Remember what i told you a couple of weeks ago?Around Low teens for this i said.. no no you said.. it looks bad.. it will do under 10 mill..Well... It estimated to twelweteen million Edited January 28, 2012 by fmpro

[MovieMan89]

Pretty boring weekend. At least The Artist is guarenteed not to be the lowest grossing BP winner now.

[cookie]

Pretty boring weekend. At least The Artist is guarenteed not to be the lowest grossing BP winner now.

Unless Tree of Life somehow wins.

[AniNate]

Only compared to last year can this month be considered a success. Nothing really broke out.

[lab276]

Last year and probably also 2007. But at least it's a step in the right direction.

Edited January 28, 2012 by lab276

[AniNate]

And that's a pretty steep drop for Red Tails. It could end up being a flop after all.

[cookie]

Only compared to last year can this month be considered a success. Nothing really broke out.

TEEDEEAAI.

[lab276]

?

[AniNate]

TEEDEEAAI.

Yeah, and then it dropped harder than Rick Perry's support

[lab276]

Could someone explain what that means?

[AniNate]

Took me a moment to figure it out myself, but I assume he meant The Devil InsideRick Perry was a Republican presidential candidate who pretty much committed campaign suicide with a stupid, false ad he released in December

[lab276]

I know who Rick Perry is, I just didn't get the letters.

[AniNate]

TEE = TDEE = DAAI = I

[lab276]

Yeah, it just seemed unusual.

[cookie]

That's how I pronounce it!

[BK007]

I don't know, I thought this January would do even worse. Everything sort of broke out. Generic crap like Joyful Noise, Contraband, Underworld 4 etc. shouldn't have opened as well as they did.Only for opening weekend though because so far, none of them have had decent sophomore drops. Apparently last year, the average second weekend drop was the lowest in 3-4 years. This year they've all dropped over 50% so far haven't they? Looks like it'll continue.