Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[druv10]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

Well, they were off a bit on MN (closer to $27m)  and PS which are now $115m and going.
 

 

 

That was Gavin's number but it didn't make sense since it was already close $21M by then and we still had 6 hrs until midnight.

[charlie Jatinder]

Not that it matter,

Maoyan forecast

 

548

400

440

 

 

Final 3500

 

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

I started this PS tracking in 2015, I'll determine the final time😎😋

3am

[rishijoesanu]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Not that it matter,

Maoyan forecast

 

548

400

440

 

 

Final 3500

 

They probably have an algorithm for this kind of thing right? How accurate has it been in the past?

[POTUS 2020]

On 4/8/2016 at 11:38 AM, POTUS 2020 said:

Im going to track JB and CA3 to see if we can find a multi. Ill keep each movie in one post and edit to make it more accessible. 

 

Jungle Book OD April 15, 2016

                         Maoyan PS

0000 F  4/8.    1.10m

0000 S  4/9     1.33 +20%

0000 S  4/10   1.86 +40%

0000 M 4/11   2.48 +33%

0000 T  4/12   3.67 +50%

0000 W 4/13   5.86 +67%

0000 T  4/14   9.76 +67%

0000 F  4/15 19.10 +96%     Midnight OD

0900 F  4/15 20.00 +  5%      Morning OD

 

OD Total    77.8m      PS Multi 4.1 x 00:00 PS
OW Total 325.0m

Total.       980.0m

OD  Multi.  8.74

OW Multi   3.03

 

50-66% increases in the final days followed by a 100% increase on the last day is a typical trend.

The 4.1 PS multi is an outlier. Most fall between 2.5-3.0

blast from the past. The birth of the PSm

I wanted to keep the pages down by keeping it in one post to find it easier.

Then we had a 20 page Indian discussion

The first 50 pages took a year

The last 50 took 2 weeks

Edited April 23, 2019 by POTUS 2020

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, rishijoesanu said:

They probably have an algorithm for this kind of thing right? How accurate has it been in the past?

Not at all. Either too high or too low.

[FlashMaster659]

Guess it's time to move over to the box office thread

[POTUS 2020]

1 minute ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Guess it's time to move over to the box office thread

yup. Ill post 3am final chart in this box

Let all move over. 

No more chatting,  here any way

 

 

[ZeeSoh]

1 hour ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Good news MN adding 4.4m to 172.3m. OD up to 243.8

Bad news, Maoyan released a rating already 

8.1

Im dropping my weekend forecast to $240m. Lower the floor to $225m

lol I saw your post as soon as you posted. Knew you were trolling. Thought I should post and clarify thus. But then thought let it run, would be fun to see people freak out

[ZeeSoh]

16 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Detective Pikachu (17 days out)

 

Midnight - 300 Yuan

OD - 53.9k (2625 shows)

Sat - 32.4k

Sun - 30k

Detective Pikachu (16 days out)

 

Midnight - 3.6k 

OD - 130k (+141%)  (4971 shows)

Sat - 50.4k

Sun - 40.3k

 

As I said yesterday gonna be a slow week for PS most likely. 

[charlie Jatinder]

https://piaofang.maoyan.com/movie/248172/premierebox

 

Opening day final pre-sales ¥252mn on 217,446 shows. Last day added ¥66.99mn and 21,815 shows.

[POTUS 2020]

3AM Final

75m PS for day 2, a thursday. Impressive.  Day 2 PS usually doubles on OD. 150m? really impressive

 

	EG							IW
PS	MN	%gain	OD	gain	% gain	Shows		MN	%gain	OD	gain	%gain	Shows
Th
Fri										0.4			6.5
Sa										1.3	0.9	202.3%	11.0
Su										2.0	0.7	53.8%	16.0
Mo										3.3	1.3	62.5%	22.0
Tu										4.6	1.4	41.5%	27.9
We								5.6		8.5	3.9	84.8%	44.4
Th								7.8	14.0%	14.6	6.1	71.8%	54.6
Fr	53.5		37.2	37.2		90.0		9.0	14.7%	18.5	3.9	26.5%	59.2
Sa	66.0	23.4%	65.7	28.5	76.6%	120.0		10.1	13.2%	22.3	3.8	20.7%	63.0
Su	80.0	21.2%	79.2	13.5	20.5%	130.0		11.0	8.5%	25.6	3.3	14.6%	66.0
Mo	82.0	2.5%	92.0	12.8	16.2%	135.2		11.9	8.2%	29.0	3.4	13.5%	69.7
Tu	84.9	3.5%	102.5	10.5	11.4%	141.5		12.8	7.6%	33.7	4.7	16.2%	72.8
We	93.5	10.1%	113.0	10.5	10.2%	146.0		15.0	17.2%	43.1	9.4	27.9%	79.7
Th	104.4	11.7%	126.5	13.5	11.9%	153.4		16.6	10.7%	50.4	7.3	16.9%	86.9
Fr	109.2	4.6%	138.5	12.0	9.5%	160.0		17.9	7.8%	58.2	7.8	15.5%	93.1
Sa	113.0	3.5%	148.0	9.5	6.9%	167.0		19.3	7.8%	65.8	7.6	13.1%	97.0
Su	117.5	4.0%	160.5	12.5	8.4%	173.0		20.9	8.3%	75.3	9.5	14.4%	100.5
Mo	128.2	9.1%	185.0	24.5	15.3%	195.5		22.8	9.1%	88.9	13.6	18.1%	112.8
Tu	179.0	39.6%	262.0	77.0	41.6%	218.0		25.8	13.2%	107.4	18.5	20.8%	133.6
We								30.6	18.6%	129.0	21.6	20.1%	154.6
Th								59.5	94.4%	182.0	53.0	41.1%	178.0
OD BO	180.0		488.0		86.3%	223.0		59.5		387.0		112.6%	182.0
Multi					1.86							2.13
				3day	5day				3 day	5day
	PS m	OD	OD m	OW	OW	OW m	Total	OD $	OW $	OW$	Total $	XR
EG Proj	1.86	488	2.58	1260	2030	2.67	3358	73	188	302	500	6.72
IW	2.12	387	3.28	1271	1463	1.88	2390	61	201	231	376	6.36

Edited April 23, 2019 by POTUS 2020

[Fake]

Presales looking to finish with 262m. A 41% jump from yesterday's figure (185m), which coincidentally is the same jump IW had (129m to 182m), but given the higher base is really impressive.

 

IW added 200m+ during the day. That should be the bare minimum EG should add. Will be interesting to see how close to 500m it can get. 500m would require 1.91x multiplier, which isn't impossible.

[ZeeSoh]

Avengers: Endgame (Final)

 

OD - 263.37 (218,092 shows)

Thu - 75.66

Fri - 97.75

Sat - 118.94

Sun - 29.60

 

Not much remains to be said about its PS run that hasn't been said by the multiple people. No superlative or hyperbole is enough to describe it. Predicting its OW is proving to be the most difficult it has ever been for a movie. I tried looking at AoU (It released on a Tuesday hence why) and other comps like presale percentages but nothing gives any sensible numbers. They are either too high or too low. 

 

But I think on the low end 265m should happen. On the high end it could end up with more than 300 but that would require an amazing rating and incredible WOM. For now I will go with 280-290m OW. Though I hope I end up being wrong and those saying 300m and above turn out to be right. 

Edited April 23, 2019 by ZeeSoh
updated after seeing the ratings

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, ZeeSoh said:

Avengers: Endgame (Final)

 

OD - 262.5 (217,583 shows)

Thu - 75.02

Fri - 97.00

Sat - 118.24

Sun - 29.44

 

Not much remains to be said about its PS run that hasn't been said by the multiple people. No superlative or hyperbole is enough to describe it. Predicting its OW is proving to be the most difficult it has ever been for a movie. I tried looking at AoU (It released on a Tuesday hence why) and other comps like presale percentages but nothing gives any sensible numbers. They are either too high or too low. 

 

But I think on the low end 265m should happen. On the high end it could end up with more than 300 but that would require an amazing rating and incredible WOM. For now I will go with 275-280m OW. Though I hope I end up being wrong and those saying 300m and above turn out to be right. 

 

An amazing rating like 9.3 on Douban? 🤯

[ZeeSoh]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

An amazing rating like 9.3 on Douban? 🤯

Holy crap I did not see that. It's inflated right now and will come down but wow thats a huge opening!

And yes if the movie is that amazing and the WoM that good, then yes it could go 300 or above

[Nerfy]

Do we have that pre-sale line graph with the final numbers? I think it ended at 774M?

[Ledmonkey96]

10 minutes ago, Nerfy said:

Do we have that pre-sale line graph with the final numbers? I think it ended at 774M?

So close to doubling the old record. 

[Gavin Feng]

30 minutes ago, Nerfy said:

Do we have that pre-sale line graph with the final numbers? I think it ended at 774M?

Just wait

[Gavin Feng]