Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[ZeeSoh]

1 hour ago, ymblcza said:

Lots of cinemas overestimated TLK and opened too many showings, and the initial presales which is related to the number of showings is inaccurate, so it needs some time for presales to catch up. Currently the presales number could be either accurate or too high, but not too low imo.

But on the other hand, with this large number of showings it should have lots of walk-ins and do decent during the weekend.

It has 54445 shows currently which is no where near high enough to be too much. For example below are the show counts for some movies 3 days out just like TLK along with their OD PS at the same time. 

 

Venom - 82969 (17.84)

SM FFH - 82292 (17.97)

Godzilla - 75921 (9.77)

Captain Marvel - 73297 (21.37)

Aquaman - 66957 (10)

MI6 - 63172 (15.11)

Ant Man 2 - 61802 (11.25)

Bumblebee - 57895 (6.83)

Alita - 49108 (7.75)

Shazam - 47040 (4.37)

Detective Pikachu - 45842 (8.88)

 

As you can see, with 54k shows currently TLK has by no means an abnormally high PS. In fact it has comparatively low PS for its show count. The PS along with the show count should actually have been higher. It's PS trend too was going normally till Sunday which is when it slowed abnormally down due to what some said Maoyan being frozen. It's Sunday and Monday jumps also goes against every historical trends so far. It could be that the jumps the first 2 days were too high and its self adjusting now (I doubt this theory) but it has by no means an irregularly high show counts (even lower than normal in fact)

 

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

It has 54445 shows currently which is no where near high enough to be too much. For example below are the show counts for some movies 3 days out just like TLK along with their OD PS at the same time. 

 

Venom - 82969 (17.84)

SM FFH - 82292 (17.97)

Godzilla - 75921 (9.77)

Captain Marvel - 73297 (21.37)

Aquaman - 66957 (10)

MI6 - 63172 (15.11)

Ant Man 2 - 61802 (11.25)

Bumblebee - 57895 (6.83)

Alita - 49108 (7.75)

Shazam - 47040 (4.37)

Detective Pikachu - 45842 (8.88)

 

As you can see, with 54k shows currently TLK has by no means an abnormally high PS. In fact it has comparatively low PS for its show count. The PS along with the show count should actually have been higher. It's PS trend too was going normally till Sunday which is when it slowed abnormally down due to what some said Maoyan being frozen. It's Sunday and Monday jumps also goes against every historical trends so far. It could be that the jumps the first 2 days were too high and its self adjusting now (I doubt this theory) but it has by no means an irregularly high show counts (even lower than normal in fact)

 

 

Yea it’s very odd. It was a fairly normal ramp up and then everything changed. I guess we just have to wait until we get the OD numbers. 

[ymblcza]

Not too many showings comparing to others but too many for TLK. The initial presales was normal because it’s highly related to the show count, not meaning TLK sold normal number of tickets during the first 2/3 days. Understand? And since the real presales is rather low, the show count and presales increase very slowly.

It’s doing what it should do. Your correct or incorrect expectation don’t affect its business.

[ZeeSoh]

On 7/8/2019 at 11:44 PM, ZeeSoh said:

The Lion King (3 days Out)

 

Midnight - 1.56m

OD - 6.00m (+21.7%) (54445 shows)

Sat - 3.91m

Sun - 2.62m

 

I dont know what's going on, if Maoyan has messed up, if the numbers have self corrected or if they are still messed up. But if the numbers are accurate, then this was a terrible jump. The lowest I think I have seen for a Monday. Again if the numbers are accurate or have self corrected by now then a final PS in the 30's let alone the 40's seems out of question. Typically looking at these numbers I would say an OW in the mid 50's is the most likely range but at this point who knows what is going on so I am not gonna predict the OW. 

The Lion King (2 days Out)

 

Midnight - 882k

OD - 8.26m (+37.66%) (69917 shows)

Sat - 5.12m

Sun - 3.18m

 

A decent increase finally. The increase is not great but not bad either. Just average. That midnight PS is wonky though because yesterday I had put it down as 1.56m and now today its nearly half at 0.882. It could be that I might have made a mistake in noting down the number yesterday but I doubt that. As you'll see from the table below, TLK's midnight PS is abnormally low compared to its Sat/Sun PS whereas that ratio for other movies is normal. 

 

	OD PS	Midnight	Sat PS	Sun PS	Show Count	Final OD PS
CM	30.08	5.92	13.63	5.23	93406	73.08
Far From Home	25	6.27	10.8	5.25	110305	67.03
Aquaman	13.08	1.93	7.95	4.58	86403	35.04
FB2	9.71	2.15	4.56	2.03	58419	29.23
Justice League	8.43	2.1	4.55	2.32	63109	26
TLK	8.26	0.88	5.12	3.18	69917

 

Unlikely at this point for TLK to do more than 30m in OD PS. But we dont know if the numbers are accurate or if there has been a glitch or a mistake. We will find out on OD. If the PSm is normal then the PS numbers were normal. IF the PSm is unusually high then we would know that the PS numbers were not accurate. 

 

Assuming the PS is normal then an opening in the 50's is likely at this point. 

Edited July 10, 2019 by ZeeSoh

[XXR vs XXR]

22 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

The Lion King (2 days Out)

 

Midnight - 882k

OD - 8.26m (+37.66%) (69917 shows)

Sat - 5.12m

Sun - 3.18m

 

A decent increase finally. The increase is not great but not bad either. Just average. That midnight PS is wonky though because yesterday I had put it down as 1.56m and now today its nearly half at 0.882. It could be that I might have made a mistake in noting down the number yesterday but I doubt that. As you'll see from the table below, TLK's midnight PS is abnormally low compared to its Sat/Sun PS whereas that ratio for other movies is normal. 

 

	OD PS	Midnight	Sat PS	Sun PS	Show Count	Final PS
CM	30.08	5.92	13.63	5.23	93406	73.08
Far From Home	25	6.27	10.8	5.25	110305	67.03
Aquaman	13.08	1.93	7.95	4.58	86403	35.04
FB2	9.71	2.15	4.56	2.03	58419	29.23
Justice League	8.43	2.1	4.55	2.32	63109	26
TLK	8.26	0.88	5.12	3.18	69917

 

Unlikely at this point for TLK to do more than 30m in OD PS. But we dont know if the numbers are accurate or if there has been a glitch or a mistake. We will find out on OD. If the PSm is normal then the PS numbers were normal. IF the PSm is unusually high then we would know that the PS numbers were not accurate. 

 

Assuming the PS is normal then an opening in the 50's is likely at this point. 

 

If I’m reading Maoyan correctly, it looks like final PS has a good shot at being above Aquaman (assuming the 35.04 listed above is total PS). TLK currently just under 27 with one day of PS to go.

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

If I’m reading Maoyan correctly, it looks like final PS has a good shot at being above Aquaman (assuming the 35.04 listed above is total PS). TLK currently just under 27 with one day of PS to go.

35.04 is OD PS only.

[ZeeSoh]

22 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

The Lion King (2 days Out)

 

Midnight - 882k

OD - 8.26m (+37.66%) (69917 shows)

Sat - 5.12m

Sun - 3.18m

at this point. 

The Lion King (1 day out)

 

Midnight - 1.18m

OD - 12.38m (+49.87%) (91185 shows)

Sat - 7.60m

Sun - 4.43m

 

Decent jump once again, not great nor bad like yesterday. Midnight PS lags significantly behind comparable movies. Show count lags too but not too far behind (way behind if comparing to SH movies though). Sat/Sun PS is good though as a ratio of the OD PS. Movie is likely not going to be frontloaded so dont freak out if Midnight or even OD is on the lower side, 

 

For example for TLK, Sat PS is 61.3% of OD and Sun PS is 35.7%. For comparison, below are the stats for some movies at 1 day out

 

Godzilla 2 - Sat was 50.8% and Sun was 17.5%

Alita - Sat was 39.3% and Sun 17.5%

Bumblebee - Sat was 45.5% and Sun was 24.4%

Aquaman - Sat was 60.4% and Sun was 31.27%

 

All these movies were recent movies and all had very good to great PS to OW multi. TLK is closest (but still ahead of Aquaman) which had the best multi of any big to medium movie I have tracked at 18.06x

 

Currently TLK seems to be heading to around mid 20's for final PS. Ignoring the abnormal 2 days of PS (Sun & Mon) and assuming the PS is accurate, the OW is still heading in the 50's region, likely high 50's to low 60's. If PS is not accurate and Maoyan is still wonky then I obviously have no clue what will happen. 

Edited July 10, 2019 by ZeeSoh

[lorddemaxus]

11 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

If I’m reading Maoyan correctly, it looks like final PS has a good shot at being above Aquaman (assuming the 35.04 listed above is total PS). TLK currently just under 27 with one day of PS to go.

35.04 mil is OD PS. TLK is only at 12 mil with one more day to go. Probably won't reach 30 mil.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

35.04 is OD PS only.

 

I was thinking that but I wasn’t sure with how it was written. Oh well lol

[ZeeSoh]

14 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

If I’m reading Maoyan correctly, it looks like final PS has a good shot at being above Aquaman (assuming the 35.04 listed above is total PS). TLK currently just under 27 with one day of PS to go.

 

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

35.04 is OD PS only.

Yup Menor is right. That final PS column is for OD only, not the total combined. TLK will not even come close to Aquaman's final OD PS or even total PS. 

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Yup Menor is right. That final PS column is for OD only, not the total combined. TLK will not even come close to Aquaman's final OD PS or even total PS. 

 

Unfortunate but in the end it’s ok. Since the weekend is spread out very similar to Aquaman, my hope now is that the reception is similar and we can get 3-4x OW.

 

Or.....you know..... Coco’s multiplier.... 😄

[cdsacken]

To me I am thinking 150m would be best case scenario. What are the numbers in comparison to Aladdin which did under 50m.

[john2000]

9 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

To me I am thinking 150m would be best case scenario. What are the numbers in comparison to Aladdin which did under 50m.

with 55-60 if wom is good, it could have legs like jungle book which would give 150-200

[XXR vs XXR]

16 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

To me I am thinking 150m would be best case scenario. What are the numbers in comparison to Aladdin which did under 50m.

 

6 minutes ago, john2000 said:

with 55-60 if wom is good, it could have legs like jungle book which would give 150-200

 

Yea for this the opening doesn’t matter nearly as much because it’s a family film with little competition. All that matters going forward is that rating. If it’s an 8.5, we are probably looking at $100-120m. If it’s a 9.5 then it could earn 5-6x OW. 

[cdsacken]

Fair enough so 150 likely, 200+ in a dream scenario. Guess we'll see after Aladdin did I'm very suspect of that.

[john2000]

Just now, cdsacken said:

Fair enough so 150 likely, 200+ in a dream scenario. Guess we'll see after Aladdin did I'm very suspect of that.

again 200 is not a dream scenario, if the movie is well liked, 

[cdsacken]

5 minutes ago, john2000 said:

again 200 is not a dream scenario, if the movie is well liked, 

Aladdin was well liked. Presales haven't been that impressive. Granted I guess competition isn't too bad.

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, cdsacken said:

Aladdin was well liked. Presales haven't been that impressive. Granted I guess competition isn't too bad.

 

Aladdin still pulled 2.9x OW with a 9.0 Maoyan rating and more competition. TLK OW will be higher than Aladdin’s total. We will see how it all plays out but there are plenty of scenarios that push it over $200m and higher. 

[cdsacken]

If OW is higher than 53m then yeah I can easily see above 150 with great reviews. Hope it happens.

[XXR vs XXR]

12 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

If OW is higher than 53m then yeah I can easily see above 150 with great reviews. Hope it happens.

 

Increases are looking fine so far today....

 

Midnight - 2.21 (+87.2%)

OD - 19.93 (+61%)

Sat - 10.94 (+43.8%)

Sun - 6.13 (+38.4%)