Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Disney pivoting completely to streaming won't cause theaters to collapse though

If you look at the admits numbers the nonDis are able to pull the last decade, compared to theatrical profit margins, I have a hard time seeing how they wouldn’t. I mean, I guess to be clear I should say that I don’t mean “collapse” to like, 0 locations — but serious serious contraction where at least one MTC goes under.  

 

9 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

And Disney becoming Netflix 2.0 just due to theaters playing hardball is extremely unlikely too.

Oh, I totally agree. Because theaters need to come to an understanding with them about maintaining a future for Dis in theatrical, and so they will.

 

9 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Disney's ecosystem needs theaters. 

Disney’s present ecosystem needs theaters, but in the medium-long run it seems like they’ll only want theaters.

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, Eric #TeamKong said:

And don't even start with this whole "well all companies are greedy lol" because that's just a bunch of "both sides"-ism nonsense people do because they get upset when their massive corporation they stan for is mildly jabbed upon by online forums and Redditors

 

Talk about “most ridiculous thing I’ve ever read.”

[Yandereprime101189]

They'll probably work something out, like maybe the theaters will have it so they get a percentage of the film's Premier Access and early digital sales.

 

It's much harder for them to all boycott Disney because most of their films as of late have been gargantuan hit after gargantuan hit - having a bit of a better track record than other studios that may have a hit then three duds.

[Legion Again]

Other studios aren’t out here giving exhibition better deals out of the kindness of their hearts or something, it’s because they don’t have the leverage to drive harder ones. If they did, they would. That’s their fiduciary duty, and that’s how things are gonna be until the socialist revolution succeeds or whatever.

[Eric Duncan]

3 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

 

Talk about “most ridiculous thing I’ve ever read.”

Well then you should find what you said in the Raya thread to be very ridiculous

 

On 3/7/2021 at 5:01 PM, WandaLegion said:

I mean... theaters are corporations too? It’s largely a corporation vs corporation fight. Seems pretty reasonable for consumers to express a preference for the model they prefer.   
 

I agree that sometimes the tone gets a little eyebrow raising, but that’s also true in the other direction.   
 

👀

Tele said the corporate boot-licking towards Disney was dumb, and here you were going "well theaters are corporations too, so you should let people defend Disney and let them be against theaters that have far less money and far less market power". Pretty ridiculous stuff, right?

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, Eric #TeamKong said:

Well then you should find what you said in the Raya thread to be very ridiculous

Uhhh... no? I honestly don’t see what you’re trying to get at here — that quote of mine from the Raya thread is very in line with my point here. 
 

All studios are basically being driven by a combo of tradition, ego, and maximizing their own profit. All exhibitors, same thing applies. Trying to act like some corporations are being “nice” or being “mean” or that some are “good guys” and some are “bad guys” is just silly/naive (to be clear, I’m not fully agreeing with Fullbuster here). 
 

But being aware of that corporate reality doesn’t mean consumers can’t like some corporations more than others. Disney actually creates products that a huge swath of people enjoy. So do WB, Uni, Sony, etc.

 

Cinemark, AMC,... not so much. So I think it’s pretty easy to see why people would feel more affinity for studios than chains, without needing a nonsensical moralizing component in either direction.

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Uhhh... no? I honestly don’t see what you’re trying to get at here — that quote of mine from the Raya thread is very in line with my point here. 
 

All studios are basically being driven by a combo of tradition, ego, and maximizing their own profit. All exhibitors, same thing applies. Trying to act like some corporations are being “nice” or being “mean” or that some are “good guys” and some are “bad guys” is just silly/naive (to be clear, I’m not fully agreeing with Fullbuster here). 
 

But being aware of that corporate reality doesn’t mean consumers can’t like some corporations more than others. Disney actually creates products that a huge swath of people enjoy. So do WB, Uni, Sony, etc.

 

Cinemark, AMC,... not so much. So I think it’s pretty easy to see why people would feel more affinity for studios than chains, without needing a nonsensical moralizing component in either direction.

I agree with most of this but I would say that plenty of people enjoy the theater experience, and much of that is created by chain theaters since indies are a pretty small component. 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

I agree with most of this but I would say that plenty of people enjoy the theater experience, and much of that is created by chain theaters since indies are a pretty small component. 

Sure, I wouldn’t say that they have no value. I enjoy Thursday night IMAX at the local Cinemark and would be sad if they all just up and vanished. I would prefer and fully expect mutually beneficially resolution to this, which is exactly what you “should” get when different self-interested entities interact.
 

But movies without theaters are still good. I liked Palm Springs. I loved The Incredibles, never seen in it a theater, probably never will. And on and on.   
 

Theaters without movies... not much of a value proposition.   
 

So it’s just a fundamentally asymmetrical situation 🤷‍♂️

[Eric Duncan]

2 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Uhhh... no? I honestly don’t see what you’re trying to get at here — that quote of mine from the Raya thread is very in line with my point here. 
 

All studios are basically being driven by a combo of tradition, ego, and maximizing their own profit. All exhibitors, same thing applies. Trying to act like some corporations are being “nice” or being “mean” or that some are “good guys” and some are “bad guys” is just silly/naive (to be clear, I’m not fully agreeing with Fullbuster here). 
 

But being aware of that corporate reality doesn’t mean consumers can’t like some corporations more than others. Disney actually creates products that a huge swath of people enjoy. So do WB, Uni, Sony, etc.

 

Cinemark, AMC,... not so much. So I think it’s pretty easy to see why people would feel more affinity for studios than chains, without needing a nonsensical moralizing component in either direction.

My assumption at the time was the idea that you were denying the "all corporations are greedy" line I mentioned. My apologies for the confusion.

 

But just to go back here, I am also well aware that WB and Uni are not doing this out of the kindness of their hearts. I am also aware that AMC, Cinemark, Cineworld, and other major exhibitors also made these deals not out of the kindness of their hearts or preservation of the theatrical experience, but rather to appease shareholders.

 

However, the big issue here is the idea you are saying here that theaters should just put up with awful deals and demands from a major company with more money than God. The idea that Disney, one of the biggest media companies in history with hundreds, if not thousands of revenue sources, not only has to make deals for one revenue source that strongly favors them, but you encourage and believe the opposing team should just go with it? Even if they still get anguish from it at the end?

 

That right there is my major problem. The idea that a greedy company that is clearly not starved for money is justified in bullying exhibitors, which despite being in it for the money, is struggling to get by and is the only reason said greedy company is popular in the first place, just because they make popular movies people like...that does not bother you? You really don't think they should compromise, throw a bone, or be a touch nicer? You don't think this is a major problem with our broken and toxic capitalist system? You really don't think this is an issue, even a little bit?

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

But movies without theaters are still good

This is the key point in the argument, either way. To that end, theaters will go the way the film studios allow them, not vice versa. 

Edited April 4, 2021 by VenomXXR

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, Eric #TeamKong said:

However, the big issue here is the idea you are saying here that theaters should just put up with awful deals and demands from a major company with more money than God. The idea that Disney, one of the biggest media companies in history with hundreds, if not thousands of revenue sources, not only has to make deals for one revenue source that strongly favors them, but you encourage and believe the opposing team should just go with it?

Okay, I think this might be where we’ve been talking past each other. I’m not saying, and do not believe, that theaters “should” do that in some kind of moral sense, like “I like Disney more than I like AMC and for that reason AMC should just roll over.”   
 

I’m saying that they “should” agree to Disney’s demands in a strategic sense, because of where the relative leverage is. But I don’t expect and wouldn’t advocate for theaters to accept anything that's one cent more generous to Disney than circumstances force them into.

Edited April 4, 2021 by WandaLegion

[cax16]

Meh, I’ve been saying since last year that Disney is only looking out for their best interests with respects to theatres etc, I thought it was garbage how they handled Mulan, Hamilton, Soul etc but it’s their products and they can do what they like with them.
 

The Black Widow thing is just another slap in the face for theatres and it’s on them to hold Disney accountable for their decisions. Wether they do(or can)is a whole other question.

 

Disney should do better, but so should many other companies who probably won’t. 

[TwoMisfits]

15 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Sure, I wouldn’t say that they have no value. I enjoy Thursday night IMAX at the local Cinemark and would be sad if they all just up and vanished. I would prefer and fully expect mutually beneficially resolution to this, which is exactly what you “should” get when different self-interested entities interact.
 

But movies without theaters are still good. I liked Palm Springs. I loved The Incredibles, never seen in it a theater, probably never will. And on and on.   
 

Theaters without movies... not much of a value proposition.   
 

So it’s just a fundamentally asymmetrical situation 🤷‍♂️

 

Well, they have spent the last year figuring out some value.  The PvPs are one value source - good for old movie viewing, parties, or even club meetings (where folks may or may not even watch a movie).  The "one night viewing" events done for a few of the fighting sports are another.

 

They have now given themselves some flexibility for their space and some way to make money on the wasted part of it.

 

That's not nothing in 2021.  It's not something I'd start a new business with, but it is something I'd do to keep legacy business going and see where it takes me...

[Legion Again]

16 minutes ago, Eric #TeamKong said:

That right there is my major problem. The idea that a greedy company that is clearly not starved for money is justified in bullying exhibitors, which despite being in it for the money, is struggling to get by and is the only reason said greedy company is popular in the first place, just because they make popular movies people like...that does not bother you? You really don't think they should compromise, throw a bone, or be a touch nicer? You don't think this is a major problem with our broken and toxic capitalist system? You really don't think this is an issue, even a little bit?

And I guess this is the other area of disagreement. No, I don’t really. I don’t see much reason to root for the less powerful corporations just because they’re less powerful. If the more powerful one is contributing more to my consumer satisfaction, I’ll happily keep rooting for them (and this applies to studio vs studio or studio vs exhibitor sentiment). There’s a sort of American notion of “the virtue of the underdog” that doesn’t really connect with me emotionally.   
 

If exhibitors had a bunch of leverage over Disney who was struggling, they would “bully” Disney. If WB had a bunch of leverage over theaters they’d “bully” theaters, and if they had a bunch of leverage over Disney they’d “bully” Disney. I’m pretty much fine with all of that, it’s part of a broader system that is imperfect but which has delivered me a pretty high quality of life overall and to which I know no clearly superior alternative.

Edited April 4, 2021 by WandaLegion

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, WandaLegion said:

Like, yes, theaters are hurting bad. That”s the reason they’ll have to agree to Disney’s terms, not somehow a reason that they can try to boycott the biggest studio by far.

No. They wont play the movie losing money. It does not help them at all. Its terrible on the part of a studio to squeeze their network when going is bad. Its like owners squeezing tenants when they are out of jobs. Ultimately they go bankrupt and theatres close shop. AMC/Cinemark will survive with studios that play ball. Already WB, Universal and Sony are playing ball. If Disney does not it will be mutual loss for both of them. BW wont gross significant numbers domestic. 

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

They wont play the movie losing money.

Sure, agree with that. But they will play the movie making less money than they’d like.

 

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

AMC/Cinemark will survive with studios that play ball.

Like I said at the top of this page, don’t really see how. Seems like wishful thinking.

I do agree that not working out a deal would be a mutual loss, which is why I fully expect a deal will work beworked out. 

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, Fullbuster said:

I hope Disney won't yield to Cinemark & Co, they must pay for what they did to Raya, a masterpiece that were deserving the same numbers as GvsK.

 

Disney will probably renegotiate terms once the pandemic is over and will give them a 30-day to 45-day exclusivity window (unless BW is a huge success as a PA) but in the meantime they should hold on.

No

[keysersoze123]

Plus Family movies wont do well in hybrid strategy. Families will hesitate taking kids to movie theatres for obvious reason plus tickets for families wont be cheap. They would rather pay for premium access or wait for it to hit Disney + without premium access in few months. 

[Jamiem]

56 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Plus Family movies wont do well in hybrid strategy. Families will hesitate taking kids to movie theatres for obvious reason plus tickets for families wont be cheap. They would rather pay for premium access or wait for it to hit Disney + without premium access in few months. 

Black Widow is no more a kids film than Godzilla vs Kong, so I’m not so sure about that.

 

As far as theatre-Disney negotiations we will probably be able to tell what chains are likely to play Black Widow by May because Cruella is coming out then and I imagine it will be similar terms for both films. I also wouldn’t be shocked if Disney packages the two films to chains and they have to play both or none, which is clearly an asshole move, but all of these companies want their revenues to return towards normalcy, I don’t personally have a bet on what will happen because I don’t know what terms or conceits either side will offer but I’m sure it will get heated like it almost certainly did with Warner and Universal in the past.

 

As for the bad guy narrative, I really don’t think the average person will hate on Disney if their movies don’t appear at a certain chain of anything the theatre will take the brunt of the blame, which is unfortunate (as the blame should be shared between both parties in the event that happens) but as Wanda mentioned the memories formed in theatres are because of the movies we see and less so about the love of the theatre (again this is most people, personally even if theatres only showed a small selection of movies I’d still go every month or 2 because I love the big screen experience.) 

[TwoMisfits]

17 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Black Widow is no more a kids film than Godzilla vs Kong, so I’m not so sure about that.

 

As far as theatre-Disney negotiations we will probably be able to tell what chains are likely to play Black Widow by May because Cruella is coming out then and I imagine it will be similar terms for both films. I also wouldn’t be shocked if Disney packages the two films to chains and they have to play both or none, which is clearly an asshole move, but all of these companies want their revenues to return towards normalcy, I don’t personally have a bet on what will happen because I don’t know what terms or conceits either side will offer but I’m sure it will get heated like it almost certainly did with Warner and Universal in the past.

 

As for the bad guy narrative, I really don’t think the average person will hate on Disney if their movies don’t appear at a certain chain of anything the theatre will take the brunt of the blame, which is unfortunate (as the blame should be shared between both parties in the event that happens) but as Wanda mentioned the memories formed in theatres are because of the movies we see and less so about the love of the theatre (again this is most people, personally even if theatres only showed a small selection of movies I’d still go every month or 2 because I love the big screen experience.) 

 

If they package both, I'm betting Cinemark will pass on both...Cruella isn't gonna make money, even in a mostly empty May...if I'm a theater, I'm giving A Quiet Place 2 all the theaters for Memorial Day weekend...and then leaning on my WB relationship and giving the rest to the Conjuring the next weekend...

 

Touting it all as "beat the heat with some chills to start the summer"...

 

Yes, AMC/Regal/Cinemark, thank me later for the obviously summer kick off tagline with what we have coming in the summer kick-off:)...Spiral, then A Quiet Place 2, and then the Conjuring...those, I'd package to theater goers as a 3 part deal (maybe free popcorn if you see all 3:)...

 

 

Edited April 5, 2021 by TwoMisfits