Weekend Thread | RTH pg 197...Mother's Day not kind to CW but very kind to JB and MD CW 42, JB 9,7, MDD 6.1,Hunts 1.48...puts CW at about 178M

[DAJK]

28 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Reading the JW weekend thread, after those numbers a lot of us were still expecting only 140M  

What a fun day that was

[ecstasy]

24 minutes ago, VGPOP said:

Advanced ticket sales don't mean anything. It's a fraction of the big picture.

 

Advanced ticket means people want their tickets before movie begins. It doesnt mean that the general public will follow-up suit. But apparently people in here thinks this way.

 

The way you know are by sellouts. Actual sellouts. We all knew Harry Potter and SW were going to have astronomical Friday numbers due to sellouts.

 

This one will be big, but not as big as the majority in here are predicting.

 

I understand exactly what advanced ticket sales mean.  You can't even tell by sell outs now a days. There are way too many showings for that.  Harry Potter and Star Wars are the extreme examples of the most dedicated fanbases. Of course they will sell out.

 

But you changed the goal posts here. This has absolutely nothing to do with the post that I replied to. You were comparing BvS pre-sales to CACW.

[John Marston]

18 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Dude, w/much better WOM and no real mega sports event (NBA play-off is the closest I guess, but it's definitely no Mayweather/Pacquiao for sure), 30%+ drop is almost impossible. Marvel's 2nd biggest Saturday drop (behind Ultron) is only like 14-15% iirc. An Ultron multiplier w/even just a 10% smaller drop (23%) would put it above 200M, just slightly below Avengers 1 at around 204-205M. 200M+ is almost a lock at this point.

 

I'm still maintaining sub 200 to avoid overhype mode, but we'll see.

 

 

Youre forgetting the much harder Sunday drop it will have 

[Hangman]

z

Edited September 20, 2017 by Hangman

[Thrylos 7]

16 minutes ago, TommyA10 said:

TFA made 2x what AOU and 1.5x what TA did. There is no comparison.

It also opened with $50 million more IN DECEMBER. SW is in another league in the US, Europe, Australia and Japan.

TFA did 2 billion WW, the avengers did 1,5 . Another league my ass ....

[Ent]

23 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

It could still beat AOU or even cross 200 m.

 

We still don't know what Friday or Saturday will look like.

 

JW made 18 m from Thursday previews and destroyed BvS OW.

 

 

So did TA in 2012 with also $18M or so previews.

 

But i think both of those movies were like lightening striking in a bottle.  

 

I remeberred clearly because HG did better and people expected that TA would fall behind it.  Then Friday numbers came in, then saturday numbers and sunday estimates and TA shattered all kind of records.

 

However, there is indeed a consistency in Marvel movies, they are more backloaded than other CBM for some reasons.

[VGPOP]

6 minutes ago, ecstasy said:

 

I understand exactly what advanced ticket sales mean.  You can't even tell by sell outs now a days. There are way too many showings for that.  Harry Potter and Star Wars are the extreme examples of the most dedicated fanbases. Of course they will sell out.

 

But you changed the goal posts here. This has absolutely nothing to do with the post that I replied to. You were comparing BvS pre-sales to CACW.

I was.

 

Several people posted the movie would gross less than BvS in previews and people were replying that CW was outpacing the ticket sales and it was unlikely this would happen.

[Thrylos 7]

13 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Fair enough but I'm not sure why 180-185 m is being thrown out there so much when WOM is way better than AOU.

 

Shouldn't AOU OW be the floor?

It's called wishful thinking .

[POTUS 2020]

Title	Your Prediction	Prediction Average

Captain America: Civil War

$191.00M

$204.16M

[grey ghost]

Predictions for CW have steadily increased for the last couple months.

 

First people questioned if it could beat BvS.

 

Then IM3.

 

Then AOU. 

 

Then JW.

 

So while expectations grew too high they still needed to grow.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

6 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

TFA did 2 billion WW, the avengers did 1,5 . Another league my ass ....

500m WW is lot.  That like saying 500m WW and 1B WW are in the same league. 

[movieboner]

C'mon $225 million opening weekend

[Daxtreme]

1 minute ago, Dexter of Suburbia said:

500m WW is lot.  That like saying 500m WW and 1B WW are in the same league. 

 

Indeed. Ant-Man grossed $500M worldwide, and it was deemed a hit.

[TommyA10]

3 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

TFA did 2 billion WW, the avengers did 1,5 . Another league my ass ....

$936m vs $623m domestically 

 

UK $180m vs $80m, with worse exchange rates

France $82m vs $38m, with noticeably worse ER

Germany $110m vs $31m, again with noticeably worse ER 

Australia $71m vs $54m, with noticeably worse ER

Japan $95m vs $45m, with worse ER

 

$500 million more with worse ER is pocket change, I agree...

 

[a2k]

BVS had a Preview:Rest of Friday ratio of x:1.95x.

Giving CW a ratio of x:1.96-2.16x (CW may have better reception but BVS had partial holiday on Friday)

 

27.7 + 53.9 (1.95x) + 50.6 (-06.1%) + 33.8 (-33.3%) = 166 (81.6)

25.0 + 49.0 (1.96x) + 54.0 (+10.2%) + 42.0 (-22.5%) = 170 (74.0)

25.0 + 51.5 (2.06x) + 58.0 (+12.6%) + 45.5 (-21.5%) = 180 (76.5)

25.0 + 54.0 (2.16x) + 62.0 (+14.8%) + 49.0 (-21.0%) = 190 (79.0)

 

I think ~76.5 OD / ~180 OW is more likely than most folks think.

Edited May 6, 2016 by a2knet

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

Indeed. Ant-Man grossed $500M worldwide, and it was deemed a hit.

 

 

 

There's a 500 m difference between movies like Ant-Man, TDK, TA and TFA.

 

So people are suggesting Ant-Man (500 m) TDK (1,000 m), Avengers (1,500 m) and TFA (2,000 m) are each in a "different league".

[baumer]

19 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

TFA did 2 billion WW, the avengers did 1,5 . Another league my ass ....

 

Did you not read the part where he said SW is in another league in North America?

[TommyA10]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

 

 

 

There's a 500 m difference between movies like Ant-Man, TDK, TA and TFA.

 

So people are suggesting Ant-Man (500 m) TDK (1,000 m), Avengers (1,500 m) and TFA (2,000 m) are each in a "different league".

And you think Antman was in the same league as TDK?

$500 million is a lot, even ignoring ER. TFA would have made $2.2 billion with 2012 ER.

[cannastop]

Here's a blog post from The Wall Street Journal about the other big story this weekend. Zootopia passing BvS.

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2016/05/04/how-zootopia-ran-a-marathon-at-the-box-office/

[babz06]

So civil war is performing like an avengers movie? That is exactly what they wanted and expected.