Weekend Thread | RTH pg 197...Mother's Day not kind to CW but very kind to JB and MD CW 42, JB 9,7, MDD 6.1,Hunts 1.48...puts CW at about 178M

[cannastop]

Just now, 75live said:

Bkb, the question has been answered more than once and more than fairly.

 

Heck I have said at least twice since you have gone into meltdown mode that the early weekend estimates are low and will still hit around $200 mil after the smoke clears 

 

So apparently you must be looking  for some specific answer that only you know.  

 

Now if you are still talking about over $225, that's already been explained too. Even at the top of today's estimated for Friday, it literally impossible for the weekend without previews to make $200 on its own. 

 

 

Satisfied now?

 

 

No no no. There will be magical pixie dust that will force people to go out and buy every cinema seat in the USA, leading to a $450 million opening weekend for Captain America 3. /s

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Considering trying out Dolby Cinema for CW tonight. Anyone been to one? How does it compare to Digital IMAX, or better yet, IMAX Laser?

[Fancyarcher]

4 minutes ago, VGPOP said:

The movie is on pace to open lower than Ultron?

 

Fool me once....fool me again?....

 

 

 

It's probably gonna have better legs though. 

[a2k]

1 minute ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

 

No.. Jesus.. This is 2012 all over again and you folks will never learn, especially since I can't get a decent answer to this Question for like the 6th time now:

 

 

[grim22]

1 minute ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

 

Blame the dude this morning posting 38M Previews and not being Banned for it.. All of a sudden, 25M for Previews is bad when The AVENGERS made 18M for Previews?? The logic is baffling today and yet:

 

 

 

Avengers made 18M Midnights Only, not starting at 7pm. Comparing midnight preview grosses to 7pm preview grosses, especially in a time when 7pm previews have become common for every single movie is basically impossible.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

16 minutes ago, RichWS said:

Thinking about creating a Ken Burns-esque documentary about cannastop's fascinating obsession with Zootopia.

You: "My dog died yesterday."

Cannastop's response: "Too bad it died on a day Zootopia had such a great drop."

Cannastop "Maybe adopt a bunny after you see Zooyopia, you will see how bunnies are the greatest animals on earth." 

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, moviesRus said:

 

People who would check RT before seeing this film probably aren't the ones  skimping out on work or school to go to a weekday matinee though.

 

You asked why did people start predicting bigger numbers. I gave you the reason. Strong critical reviews gave it more buzz and people reacted to that with higher predictions for the opening as a result. Who knows, it's still very early. For all we know it's gonna end up over $200m for the weekend.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

2 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

Considering trying out Dolby Cinema for CW tonight. Anyone been to one? How does it compare to Digital IMAX, or better yet, IMAX Laser?

I love Dolby Cinema great sound and they usually have recline seats. Are cheaper than IMAX movies. 

[grey ghost]

It was AOU's DOM gross that disappointed.

 

OW, OS and WW were all decent.

 

CW will have a more impressive DOM, so it won't be another AOU.

[Truckasaurus]

6 minutes ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

 

I'd sure like to know cause I don't recall seeing it, so I'll post this yet AGAIN:

 

 

So yet another time I'm going to ask this?? Why is this so hard to believe that CW isn't following the same path TA did in 2012 making MORE than what people predicted and MORE than 150M OW by a fucking mile at that and enough to kill Nikki with the whole "Not a Record" crap???

 

a2knet was kind enough to repost it here now.

 

So, just to summarize, for Civil War to reach the benchmark you set for your club, it would need to make $200M FSS. That would be nearly $10M more than the current record held by The Force Awakens ($190.9M). It's a long, long, loooong shot. We all remember the Star Wars craze in December, kids were out of schools, it was the holidays...Perfect storm, really. But all of this is for the $225M goal. To reach $200M, that would require $175M FSS. Much more reasonable, but still not as easy as some make out to be. As I showed, only 3 movies have made more than $164M for the weekend only period, and they were the three phenomena that benefitted from years of awareness, marketing and expectations. 

 

As for the $150M predictions for The Avengers back then, I'll give you that. Some analysts were predicting that. Here's the thing, though: they were predicting it months before the movie opened. As its opening weekend came along, predictions were in the $170M range*, which is a massive $20M bump from initial forecast. And as new numbers came rolling in, predictions were then adapted. That's box-office analyzing. We need to conform to whatever new information is presented to us as the weekend rolls in. Current patterns show us that Civil War might not make it to the $200M benchmark in its opening weekend.

 

*Sources: 
http://www2.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2012-05-weekend-predictions-marvels-the-avengers
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3435&p=.htm

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

 

Blame the dude this morning posting 38M Previews and not being Banned for it.. All of a sudden, 25M for Previews is bad when The AVENGERS made 18M for Previews?? The logic is baffling today and yet:

 

 

 

1. That was pure midnights
2. Was not a sequel so had less front-loading.
3. Online ticketing and increased vastly since TA.
4. It was the fucking Avengers
5. And no, 25m previews is NOT bad. It's GREAT. CW's previews and OW are nothing short of great.

Edited May 6, 2016 by a2knet

[Deep Wang]

40 minutes ago, kitik said:

Holy crap, the next Aunt May is going to be Megan Fox, isn't it?

 

That would be a terrible step backwards.

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, Dexter of Suburbia said:

Cannastop "Maybe adopt a bunny after you see Zooyopia, you will see how bunnies are the greatest animals on earth." 

Nah, bro. Domesticated foxes are where it's at.

 

 

[John Marston]

Australia and Uk opening pointed to to this. No surprise 

[The Futurist]

Would it be possible that a part of the audience starts to not give a fuck about these movies, regardless of their perceived quality ?

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

3 minutes ago, Dexter of Suburbia said:

I love Dolby Cinema great sound and they usually have recline seats. Are cheaper than IMAX movies. 

Unfortunately not by me, same price as the IMAX at the same theater ($20+). I got $10 in Stubs cash that I can use though. I can also see for it in IMAX Laser for $12, though I may see it a 3rd time.

Edited May 6, 2016 by Jayhawk

[Ohana]

4 minutes ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

 

 

First of all forget about 225M, it won't happend
2nd: stop comparing the previews to The Avengers numbers - 18M was something years ago, now ppl are used to whole different numbers.
I think 180M OW is huge, but FANatics here set the bar so high that now everything below 200M will feel like a flop - being the worst enemy of themselves.
 

Edited May 6, 2016 by Ohana
Correction

[Lordmandeep]

Just now, Rman823 said:

This thread is starting to remind me of AOU's last year when it's numbers came in under expectations. Will probably happen again when people GOTG 2 is over predicted next year. 

Unlike Ultron people liked the film  

[cannastop]

Just now, The Futurist said:

Would it be possible that a part of the audience starts to not give a fuck about these movies, regardless of their perceived quality ?

I'd say that an opening weekend of $180+ million means that a lot of people give a fuck. It's going to have to be a whole lot less lucrative than that to make Disney rethink its Marvel strategy.

[Mango]

I don't know what some of you expect from movies. Not just Civil War. Not just BvS. Any of them. It's like if they don't quite match up to the most successful film in the franchise you either get mad or give up on it.

 

I don't know if I'm going to be able to handle it when you guys call Episode VIII a letdown when it opens to "only $235 million".