Summer 2016 Bombs

[WrathOfHan]

9 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

FWIW, I'm not predicting an "Alice 2" or "Tomorrowland" level flop for Dory either. If that's what this thread is about then I didn't read carefully enough before posting. I think Dory will be a relative disappointment: Right around $200m DOM. By what most are predicting, that would qualify as a "flop" for it. 

Do you realize it would have to lose more than half of the first's audience to do that?

[SteveJaros]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Do you realize it would have to lose more than half of the first's audience to do that?

 

Yes. I saw Nemo in theaters 13 years ago and followed its box office progress. That can happen, just ask Alice. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, SteveJaros said:

 

Yes. I saw Nemo in theaters 13 years ago and followed its box office progress. That can happen, just ask Alice. 

Nobody really wanted an Alice 2 even 5 years ago. Nice try, bro.

[AniNate]

3 hours ago, SteveJaros said:

 

FWIW, I'm not predicting an "Alice 2" or "Tomorrowland" level flop for Dory either. If that's what this thread is about then I didn't read carefully enough before posting. I think Dory will be a relative disappointment: Right around $200m DOM. By what most are predicting, that would qualify as a "flop" for it. 

 

When you're wrong I am never going to let you hear the end of it

[DAJK]

49 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

 

When you're wrong I am never going to let you hear the end of it

I'd just let it go. I said Gods of Egypt would for sure make 100M domestic but I'm glad it's not held against me

 

even though he is wrong

Edited June 1, 2016 by DAJK

[KGator]

4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Do you realize it would have to lose more than half of the first's audience to do that?

 

You do realize that almost 100% of the kids who saw Finding Nemo the first time around are in High School or beyond right?  This movie has to almost find an entirely new audience (and I don't think many of the kids who saw it the first time will have kids of their own to pass it along too).  It has name recognition but is also dealing with a new breed of kids who watch more movies on their tablets than on DVD or in movie theaters.  We'll see how it plays out.

 

His theory is entirely plausible.  I saw Finding Nemo in theaters with 3 of my kids.  Number one, they did not know a sequel was even coming out until recently.   Two, they could all care less.  2 are in HS and the other graduated.   This isn't exactly going to be a huge film with college and HS aged kids.  The nostalgia factor is WAAAYYYY overplayed here.  They are either 10 years too late in releasing this film or 10 years too early.  This movie is going to have to get great WOM and bring a new audience.  I see it doing somewhere in the low to mid 300s but I also believe it has a higher chance of hitting closer to 200 than the 480 adjusted gross of the original.

[filmlover]

I was fresh out of college when Finding Nemo came out and saw it opening weekend (as a double feature with The Italian Job). It remains one of my favorite movies.

 

This old fart is seeing Finding Dory on opening weekend.

[cannastop]

@KGator

 

You realize how popular the DVD is, right? Finding Nemo finds a brand new audience every single day.

[WrathOfHan]

13 minutes ago, KGator said:

 

You do realize that almost 100% of the kids who saw Finding Nemo the first time around are in High School or beyond right?  This movie has to almost find an entirely new audience (and I don't think many of the kids who saw it the first time will have kids of their own to pass it along too).  It has name recognition but is also dealing with a new breed of kids who watch more movies on their tablets than on DVD or in movie theaters.  We'll see how it plays out.

 

His theory is entirely plausible.  I saw Finding Nemo in theaters with 3 of my kids.  Number one, they did not know a sequel was even coming out until recently.   Two, they could all care less.  2 are in HS and the other graduated.   This isn't exactly going to be a huge film with college and HS aged kids.  The nostalgia factor is WAAAYYYY overplayed here.  They are either 10 years too late in releasing this film or 10 years too early.  This movie is going to have to get great WOM and bring a new audience.  I see it doing somewhere in the low to mid 300s but I also believe it has a higher chance of hitting closer to 200 than the 480 adjusted gross of the original.

Kids these days recognize Nemo, people in high school and college right now who saw it as kids aren't the only audience.

Edited June 1, 2016 by WrathOfHan

[AniNate]

It's going to be over two months since the last really big kids hit by the time Dory comes out. Even if one accepts the premise that kids aren't into the franchise anymore (which is laughable), it still at least initially has a dearth of competition and a very strong marketing campaign that has succeeded in increasing awareness while still preserving the dramatic experiences of the film. If people didn't know Dory was coming out before, they certainly do now and that's all that matters.

[department store basement]

Kids today definitely know Finding Nemo since the merchandise still sells really well.

[Finnick]

Regardless of Dory being a sequel. What matters is the quality of this movie. If it is good enough. it will have a huge success and the audience will embrace it. Pixar still on the wake of The Good Dinosaur failure. They cannot afford another slip!!!!

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, leatherjacket said:

Regardless of Dory being a sequel. What matters is the quality of this movie. If it is good enough. it will have a huge success and the audience will embrace it. Pixar still on the wake of The Good Dinosaur failure. They cannot afford another slip!!!!

Oh, yes they can. And I don't mean that in a bad way.

[KGator]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Kids these days recognize Nemo, people in high school and college right now who saw it as kids aren't the only audience.

 

You say that but I have a four year old who was raised on Disney Junior and she has no idea who Nemo is.  I've seen Pocahontas, Winnie the Pooh, Hercules, Tarzan, Mulan and the damn TinkerBell movies on DisJr MULTIPLE times in the past few years.  I saw Finding Nemo on there once (and my daughter didn't even watch it all the way through).  Now maybe they did show it more often and I didn't notice but those other movies seem to play every other friggin month!

 

I think you might be displacing your love for a beloved cartoon character onto a bunch of preschool aged children.  I think it will probably do ballpark Zootopia/Jungle Book type final numbers but it will not be the phenomenon these people who are holding "Finding Dory" parties think it will.  Still, 330-370 is a hella good chunk of change for an animated film.

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, KGator said:

 

You say that but I have a four year old who was raised on Disney Junior and she has no idea who Nemo is.  I've seen Pocahontas, Winnie the Pooh, Hercules, Tarzan, Mulan and the damn TinkerBell movies on DisJr MULTIPLE times in the past few years.  I saw Finding Nemo on there once (and my daughter didn't even watch it all the way through).  Now maybe they did show it more often and I didn't notice but those other movies seem to play every other friggin month!

 

I think you might be displacing your love for a beloved cartoon character onto a bunch of preschool aged children.  I think it will probably do ballpark Zootopia/Jungle Book type final numbers but it will not be the phenomenon these people who are holding "Finding Dory" parties think it will.  Still, 330-370 is a hella good chunk of change for an animated film.

Just because you haven't shown your child the Finding Nemo DVD doesn't mean that millions of other parents have not.

 

Although I do agree with you about Finding Dory's domestic total. I thought you were in the sub-$300m camp.

Edited June 1, 2016 by cannastop

[Spectre]

Everyone in this thread underestimating Nemo's popularity among kid's today is in for a big surprise in a couple weeks.

[Avatree]

11 minutes ago, Spectre said:

Everyone in this thread underestimating Nemo's popularity among kid's today is in for a big surprise in a couple weeks.

And yet every other movie this summer so far has been overestimated by the majority of this forum. 

 

It will have a similar drop to Monsters University, maybe slightly harder since Nemo was bigger to begin with. Plus with Secret Life of Pets released the week after, there is significant competition.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Treecraft said:

And yet every other movie this summer so far has been overestimated by the majority of this forum. 

 

It will have a similar drop to Monsters University, maybe slightly harder since Nemo was bigger to begin with. Plus with Secret Life of Pets released the week after, there is significant competition.

In the UK? Because Pets doesn't open until Dory's fourth weekend domestically

[Avatree]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

In the UK? Because Pets doesn't open until Dory's fourth weekend domestically

Oh sorry, I didn't realise it was releasing later in the US. I just seen posters that say it's out on 24 June so assumed that was the case in the States.

 

Regardless, my point still stands. People expecting 400M+ are in for a rude awakening.

[Spectre]

49 minutes ago, Treecraft said:

And yet every other movie this summer so far has been overestimated by the majority of this forum. 

 

It will have a similar drop to Monsters University, maybe slightly harder since Nemo was bigger to begin with. Plus with Secret Life of Pets released the week after, there is significant competition.

 

The problem with that comp is that Monsters Inc.'s popularity wasn't at all comparable to Finding Nemo's.  Nemo is Pixar's most popular IP... even more popular than Toy Story.  Unless the movie stinks, Dory is going to be much closer to Toy Story 3 than it is Monsters U.