Weekend Actuals (Page 75): X-MEN 103.3M OS OW | Angry Birds 38.15M | Captain America 32.9M (Ahoy Matey!!) | Neighbors 21.7M | The Nice Guys 11.2M | Jungle Book 10.9M

[Chaz]

30 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I like how everyone keeps forgetting The Revenant and American Sniper had DVD copies available to download in mid December and still did blockbuster numbers in mid January when they were released. Selective memory is a great thing. 

It's not selective memory. It's stupidity. 

 

We ALL knew that some excuse was going to be used for this movie. This is just what stuck. 

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, bladels said:

Civil War's legs are so disappointing.

What happened with great reviews from both critics and GA?

Doesn't matter at this point. The plot of the movie is impenetrable for non-fans.

[MCKillswitch123]

14 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

But once they ship out the print to theaters, it's not in their hands (I don't know how it all works)?

 

Yeah, but by the time that good prints begin to come out, it's probably late Sunday or Monday, if not days or weeks later. He said that Episode VIII won't open to 235M because of piracy deflation. Piracy may affect legs, but it certainly ain't an OW problem.

[grim22]

Boxofficeprophets got most predictions pretty spot on this week, but seemed to go way too high on Neighbors

 

Forecast: Weekend of May 20-22, 2016
Rank	Film	Number of Sites	Changes in Sites from Last	Estimated Gross ($)
1	Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising	3,384	New	44.6
2	The Angry Birds Movie	3,932	New	40.1
3	Captain America 3: Civil War	N/A	N/A	34.7
4	The Nice Guys	2,865	New	12.4
5	The Jungle Book	N/A	N/A	11.3
6	Money Monster	N/A	N/A	8.4
7	Zootopia	N/A	N/A	2.0
8	Mother's Day	N/A	N/A	2.0
9	The Huntsman: Winter's War	N/A	N/A	1.5
10	Keanu	N/A	N/A	0.9

[theultimatebiu]

25 minutes ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

 

Why should we?? It's truly a legitimate problem and for a bunch of self proclaimed box office experts, it surprises me more are not onboard for this reasoning.. Whether it was The REVENANT or AMERICAN SNIPER making it's way to the streets, the fact is that this just wasn't a shitty copy with some dude's head sticking in the way, it was a goddamn pristine copy like someone stole a fucking reel and THAT is a fucking problem for the future of blockbusters when it comes to predicting movies and the amount of $$$ they should be making as a result.. Sure, YES, CW is making a lot of $$$$.. We get it, but without that reel being stolen, without any fucking bullshit piracy PERIOD, we wouldn't have this problem.. Rant over..

 

Just like 95% of pirate copies nowadays. The revenant and AS copies were academy awards screeners.

 

All we are seeing here is a saturation of the marketplace. CA3 didn't offer that much new...not every movie is going to hit $600M.

[Maxmoser3]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Not so sexy legs.

Might not be until Dory and Central Intelligence  when things lighten up. Memorial Day weekend could be alright, but could likely be over predicted. 

[mrqe93]

I'm sure piracy does affect ticket sales, but not as much as we think. People who download illegal copies of movies in theaters aren't likely to pay to see those movies anyway. General public who watches movies in theaters every once in awhile will continue to watch them in theaters. Also, general public with general computer skills don't even know how to find those pirated copies... 

 

And let's not forget that gap between theatrical release and digital release is shorter than ever. More and more people are waiting to watch new movies on computers, tablets and phones. 

[kayumanggi]

Wow. boxoffice.com is predicting just 32.5 M for CA: CW. Tsk tsk piracy. lol

[department store basement]

4 minutes ago, mrqe93 said:

And let's not forget that gap between theatrical release and digital release is shorter than ever.

 

About 3 months is "shorter than ever"?

 

Sure you get films like Deadpool or Spectre which get released on digital earlier than usual but it's been 3 months for most movies for years now.

[Celedhring]

21 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Doesn't matter at this point. The plot of the movie is impenetrable for non-fans.

 

Yeah, I'm of the opinion that as the Marvel universe goes through its phases, and its stories become more intertwined, they are in fact reducing their potential audience base. If you haven't seen the previous Marvel films, you probably will be put off by this one, with many characters and references that you aren't familiar enough, or just barely if you only showed up for a few of those films. I don't think they can grow their audience with a film like CW, so a gross in the 400s is actually pretty damn good - it's in the upper range of what they've managed so far.

 

The shared universe is a fun idea, mind, but it comes with its drawbacks.

 

It reminds me of how the actual comic book industry started alienating the casual readers introducing all those big events spawning several collections, which made their die-hards buy a lot of different books in order to adequately follow the storyline.

Edited May 21, 2016 by Celedhring

[mrqe93]

2 minutes ago, department store basement said:

 

About 3 months is "shorter than ever"?

 

Sure you get films like Deadpool or Spectre which get released on digital earlier than usual but it's been 3 months for most movies for years now.

 

I was comparing to the time when we had to wait like 6 months for DVD

[MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie]

1 hour ago, bladels said:

Civil War's legs are so disappointing.

What happened with great reviews from both critics and GA?

 

Is there any data on what percentage of a blockbuster's gross typically comes from repeat viewing?   I would imagine the MCU would be on the high end of that scale.  I think CW might the first MCU film that is simply not engendering the same level of return customers.  

 

It's the first of their 13 films to go seriously off-formula and deliver a third act unlike any we've ever seen in the MCU.  Feige is being rewarded with relatively big numbers, but he might to have to fight even harder for any bold narrative choices in the future with studio execs who wants to play it safe and can now point to CW's multiplier to back them up.

Edited May 21, 2016 by MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie

[JohnnyGossamer]

Starting to think, given underwhelming legs and OW of summer fare, something odd like Turtles will break out. I don't see many of big releases bombing but I don't really see a breakout either. Dory, maybe? Not even certain  about that one.

 

Everyone saw this coming with Nice Guys. But, Angry Birds under $40M? Civil War under $35M? Neighbors  2 under $25M? Pretty disappointing. And, doesn't bode particularly well for Alice  or X-Men either.

 

What do the regs around here think?

Edited May 21, 2016 by JohnnyGossamer

[johnboy3434]

My weekend projections based on Friday estimates...

 

The Angry Birds Movie

Saturday: $15.8M (+44%)

Sunday: $13.1M (-17%)

OPENING WEEKEND TOTAL: $40M

PROJECTED 54-DAY TOTAL: $154M (3.84x)

 

Captain America: Civil War

Saturday: $16.8M (+93.5%)

Sunday: $9.64M (-42.8%)

THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $35.2M (-51.5%)

PROJECTED 10-WEEK TOTAL: $444M (2.48x)

 

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

Saturday: $7.95M (-9.05%)

Sunday: $5.2M (-34.5%)

OPENING WEEKEND TOTAL: $21.9M

PROJECTED SEVEN-WEEK TOTAL: $78M (3.56x)

 

The Nice Guys

Saturday: $4.94M (+27.3%)

Sunday: $4.23M (-14.3%)

OPENING WEEKEND TOTAL: $13.1M

PROJECTED FIVE-WEEK TOTAL: $40.7M (3.12x)

 

Money Monster

Saturday: $1.44M (-27.3%)

Sunday: $1.11M (-23%)

SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $4.52M (-69.5%)

PROJECTED FOUR-WEEK TOTAL: $31.7M (2.14x)

 

The Darkness

Saturday: $697k (-0.43%)

Sunday: $448k (-35.7%)

SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $1.85M (-62.7%)

PROJECTED SIX-WEEK TOTAL: $10.9M (2.2x)

 

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, johnboy3434 said:

My weekend projections based on Friday estimates...

 

The Angry Birds Movie

Saturday: $15.8M (+44%)

Sunday: $13.1M (-17%)

OPENING WEEKEND TOTAL: $40M

PROJECTED 54-DAY TOTAL: $154M (3.84x)

 

Captain America: Civil War

Saturday: $16.8M (+93.5%)

Sunday: $9.64M (-42.8%)

THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $35.2M (-51.5%)

PROJECTED 10-WEEK TOTAL: $444M (2.48x)

 

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

Saturday: $7.95M (-9.05%)

Sunday: $5.2M (-34.5%)

OPENING WEEKEND TOTAL: $21.9M

PROJECTED SEVEN-WEEK TOTAL: $78M (3.56x)

 

The Nice Guys

Saturday: $4.94M (+27.3%)

Sunday: $4.23M (-14.3%)

OPENING WEEKEND TOTAL: $13.1M

PROJECTED FIVE-WEEK TOTAL: $40.7M (3.12x)

 

Money Monster

Saturday: $1.44M (-27.3%)

Sunday: $1.11M (-23%)

SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $4.52M (-69.5%)

PROJECTED FOUR-WEEK TOTAL: $31.7M (2.14x)

 

The Darkness

Saturday: $697k (-0.43%)

Sunday: $448k (-35.7%)

SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $1.85M (-62.7%)

PROJECTED SIX-WEEK TOTAL: $10.9M (2.2x)

 

A 3.56x on Neighbors?  

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, johnboy3434 said:

My weekend projections based on Friday estimates...

 

The Angry Birds Movie

Saturday: $15.8M (+44%)

Sunday: $13.1M (-17%)

OPENING WEEKEND TOTAL: $40M

PROJECTED 54-DAY TOTAL: $154M (3.84x)

 

Captain America: Civil War

Saturday: $16.8M (+93.5%)

Sunday: $9.64M (-42.8%)

THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $35.2M (-51.5%)

PROJECTED 10-WEEK TOTAL: $444M (2.48x)

 

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

Saturday: $7.95M (-9.05%)

Sunday: $5.2M (-34.5%)

OPENING WEEKEND TOTAL: $21.9M

PROJECTED SEVEN-WEEK TOTAL: $78M (3.56x)

 

The Nice Guys

Saturday: $4.94M (+27.3%)

Sunday: $4.23M (-14.3%)

OPENING WEEKEND TOTAL: $13.1M

PROJECTED FIVE-WEEK TOTAL: $40.7M (3.12x)

 

Money Monster

Saturday: $1.44M (-27.3%)

Sunday: $1.11M (-23%)

SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $4.52M (-69.5%)

PROJECTED FOUR-WEEK TOTAL: $31.7M (2.14x)

 

The Darkness

Saturday: $697k (-0.43%)

Sunday: $448k (-35.7%)

SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $1.85M (-62.7%)

PROJECTED SIX-WEEK TOTAL: $10.9M (2.2x)

 

I hope you're right across the board here. Can't say I share your optimism  though.

[lab276]

The only film I'm really looking forward to this northern summer is Sausage Party.

[CJohn]

7 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Starting to think, given underwhelming legs and OW of summer fare, something odd like Turtles will break out. I don't see many of big releases bombing but I don't really see a breakout either. Dory, maybe? Not even certain  about that one.

 

Everyone saw this coming with Nice Guys. But, Angry Birds under $40M? Civil War under $35M? Neighbors  2 under $25M? Pretty disappointing. And, doesn't bode particularly well for Alice  or X-Men either.

 

What do the regs around here think?

I had Angry Birds with a 40M OW (should end around that) and I always expected Neighbors 2 to underperform big time. My last prediction was a 22M OW for it. I am not surprised by Civil War's poor legs either. But I wasn't a fan of the movie. 

 

Alice 2 and X-Men will underperform as well. 

[Kalo]

Those Cap numbers are disappointing. it could end it's run below Im3 at this point, which is absurd. it has way better WoM than that movie. I think having so many characters from other movies and its busy plot is turning off some general movie going audiences. 

[WrathOfHan]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I had Angry Birds with a 40M OW (should end around that) and I always expected Neighbors 2 to underperform big time. My last prediction was a 22M OW for it. I am not surprised by Civil War's poor legs either. But I wasn't a fan of the movie. 

 

Alice 2 and X-Men will underperform as well. 

But you'll still get the steelbook  

 

Speaking of which, when are you seeing X-Men?

Edited May 21, 2016 by WrathOfHan