The Little Mermaid | Disney | May 26, 2023 | Queen Halle will rule the summer!

[TwoMisfits]

40 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am not in this train. its doing well in few urban markets. Otherwise presales are not blockbuster level. now let us see final burst is like fan driven or like family flicks. 

 

We're on the same train...

[Porthos]

FWIW, I absolutely see the breakout potential.  But right now, it's still potential.

 

This is kinda/sorta a tracking post but also kinda/sorta not so I'll put it here.  For me, the best comp for TLM has been, and always will be, Aladdin.  

 

MDW release?  Check.

Social media/internet fueled hate campaign? Check.

Appeal to similar demos?  Mostly check*. 

* TLM should skew to women even more than Aladdin did, but that was still a fairly female friendly film.

 

The biggest problem with Aladdin comparisons is that four years is an eternity when it comes to analyzing pre-sales, even before a massive pandemic altering everything and leaving chaos in its wake is factored into the picture.  So a look at how Aladdin was selling at this point will only get one so far.

 

The other big problem with an Aladdin comp is that Disney is being much much MUCH better at marketing TLM than it ever was in regards to Aladdin.  I remember one of the post-mortems here regarding the surprising breakout of Aladdin was that Disney dropped the ball massively when it came to marketing the songs and music of Aladdin.  @TwoMisfits was one of the ones banging the drum about Disney mismanaging the soundtrack/score release, if memory serves correctly (and it might not).

 

Either way, there was the general consensus that Disney massively dropped the ball when it came to showcasing the strengths of Aladdin and it took real WOM to spread that, hey, this is a fun time at the movies; you should check it out.

 

To me, what this says is that Disney actually learned from its mistakes regarding Aladdin and is running a much different (and better) playbook.  Which also makes comparisons to Aladdin... difficult, as it could just be shifting sales from the end of a pre-sale window toward more of the middle.  But it also could be convincing real fence sitters to actually buy tickets that they wouldn't have done otherwise and we won't know which scenario it is until it releases.

 

===

It's at this point where I also have to say that, all due respect to Mena Massoud, Halle Bailey looks to be a much much much bigger draw and telegenic presence than he ever was.  She seems to have that rare 'it' factor that just draws the camera toward her.  So Disney making her front and center of the marketing, especially in regards to the music, is a much easier lift

===

 

Anyway, all of this is to say that this film could break out in a big way.  Not "win the summer" big way, as a lot of things have to go very right (including other films beating each other up/underperforming).  But doing very very well and far better than some might have thought?

 

Well, so far, yeah.  Absolutely put me on that train.

 

NB:  All of the above being said, it absolutely could still stall out.  We're still a week-plus from release so plenty of time for the trajectory to change.  So absolutely do not take any of the above as any sort of Stone Cold Lock.  Just mostly noting what Disney is doing differently this time and how it seems to be working.  So far.

 

Edited May 16, 2023 by Porthos

[Jonwo]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

We're on the same train...

You just want Spider-Verse to beat everything Disney related and/or win the summer though. 

 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

You just want Spider-Verse to beat everything Disney related and/or win the summer though. 

 

 

I mean, being right is always nice, so I "want" to be right.

 

But I also just see this as a two demo movie, pulling in few male theater goers at a time when they are the dominant ones.  And I see the baggage of a LOT of previous subpar live action classic animated just making this a pass opening weekend, and then into the onslaught of Spidey.  

 

If I had been Disney, I'd have made this a spring movie ala Beauty and the Beast or their kickoff May movie into Mother's Day b/c of the likely skew...b/c one week before Spidey just doesn't seem like the best plan.

 

 

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

You just want Spider-Verse to beat everything Disney related and/or win the summer though. 

 

On a national level Spiderverse is comfortably ahead and its also an animated flick. So I would say @TwoMisfits is the right boat. 

 

Also summer has The Flash, Indy 5 and MI7 ahead. So its early to say who will win the summer. Let the movie open 1st. 

[PrinceRico]

One thing we can say for sure. Everything is lining up perfectly for this to break out. Disney has effectively did there job and silenced the YouTube haters to shame. Hallie was perfect casting.

[WittyUsername]

I would think that a movie like this would be a lot more walk-up heavy than something like Spider-Verse. 

[dudalb]

2 hours ago, Jonwo said:

You just want Spider-Verse to beat everything Disney related and/or win the summer though. 

 

WHich, though I loved the first Spiderverse movie, I don't think is going to happen. I see it doing about the same as the first one.

[Immortal]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

On a national level Spiderverse is comfortably ahead and its also an animated flick. So I would say @TwoMisfits is the right boat. 

 

Also summer has The Flash, Indy 5 and MI7 ahead. So its early to say who will win the summer. Let the movie open 1st. 

SpiderVerse is also a Marvel sequel, ITSV's audience didn't exactly skew as that of animated flicks

[Spidey Freak]

4 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I mean, being right is always nice, so I "want" to be right.

 

But I also just see this as a two demo movie, pulling in few male theater goers at a time when they are the dominant ones. 

 

And yet BatB remake and the Frozen films were huge. The Princess films have shown to be universal and also enjoy a monopoly of families with little girls. There isn't much for them this summer until Barbie.

 

Also, live action remake hate is overrated on these forums. Aladdin definitely had good to great WOM which powered TLK's opening, the last proper theatrical opening of this kind.* Cruella with its simu release was also a well received film. The Disney+ exclusive films are too small to make a difference. And TLM is actually looking to get a fresh RT percentage.

Edited May 17, 2023 by Spidey Freak
*I forgot about Maleficent 2. But near 500M is way more than that completely unwanted film deserved to make so my point remains regarding GA perceptions of remakes being much more +ve than the internet would have you believe..

[grey ghost]

We know TLM has decent buzz because we have our ear close to the ground but the general audience and casuals probably have a wait and see approack like they did with Aladdin and GotG3.

 

If this gets over 80% on RT or an A cinemascore then expect some sexy Ariel legs.

[Mojoguy]

Female audiences have been starved for months now with the lack of theater content aimed at them. Book Club 2 sure as hell wasn't it.

 

There was nothing for families for months after Puss 2, which is why Mario blew up so much.

 

I see TLM and Indy being the biggest wild cards this year, both having the strongest chances at 1 Billie.

Edited May 17, 2023 by Mojoguy

[jedijake]

There's a very good shot that TLM will be the biggest summer film of '23. Not sure how GOTG3's legs will hold up, but that one's already doing very well so it may be close. SM:ATSV could also take off with some daddy long legs, but there could be a real battle on our hands this summer.

Edited May 17, 2023 by jedijake

[ThomasNicole]

 

[ThomasNicole]

Apparently there’s more screenings happening right now so more reactions should be out during the next hours 

 

Anyway still feeling more criterious reviews will be mixed but RT score should be decent

[Porthos]

Some critics really do seem to like it/love it more than others, but the praise for Halle Bailey is damn near universal, near as I can tell.  

 

And not faint praise but "standout star" praise.  That's really should attract more than a few fence sitters, IMO.

[WorkingonaName]

Barbie -> Little mermaid. 

[joselowe]

1 hour ago, WorkingonaName said:

Barbie -> Little mermaid. 

We shall see, the Barbie screening had some pretty harsh feedback that made them reshoot a few scenes.

 

This blind item was released in April and shortly after Margot was filmed doing reshoots

 

Anyone remember that old movie, "A Bridge Too Far?"

It t had a great script, a "Who's Who" of 1970s male and female A-List Stars, including Sir Laurence Olivier, James Caan, Robert Redford, excellent production value, beautiful set design, and was based on an award-winning book?

Yet, it was still not warmly received and took a while to break even.

~ And there's nothing wrong with fun and frothy silly and easy to enjoy Summer Popcorn movies as long as they're enjoyable, right?

~ Well, this summer movie has none of those aspects going for it, and has usually quiet Hollywood Observers openly asking if the production was a money l@undering entity?

~ It remains to be seen if audiences will turn out, or if this will be a skipper?

~ It's not that the female lead isn't pretty and talented; It's that the script is allegedly "awful?"

~ It's not that the male lead isn't funny or handsome...It's that even if the late script doctor Carrie Fisher rewrote his lines, they'd still fall flat?

(He just wasn't feeling it and "was only in it for the check." Allegedly, and no judgment because the economy is bad?)

~ The male lead they'd hoped would Captain the ship allegedly read the script and turned it down flat...He's had very few flops and definitely didn't want to risk it, though he's tall and handsome and would have embodied the classic character we all know and "owned" at sometime in the our childhood?

~ We hope they don't blame the "one" prominent Black cast member for the eventual tepid response from audiences because the test audiences kinda liked her character...Even if her role seems diminished and kinda spotty due to questionable editing and re-writes?

~ As for the Director? Well, Olivia Wilde wasn't the only one who over-promised and under-delivered on a project, but if the script is questionable, does the Director deserve the blame?

~ Instead of getting down to work and making sure the material was interesting, the production team allegedly figured they could throw anything at the wall and make it stick if it had a "star-studded cast," forgetting that only Tom Cruise can still have a Big Box Office opening in Middle America?

Sidenote: The supporting "stars" they're counting on are Industry loved, but rarely open to big numbers?

~ Test audiences are allegedly walking out coast to coast, including their bread and butter...Tween Girls?

~ It's been alleged that they're simply sitting out in the lobbies, talking about how bad it is...Like, they're having more fun meeting girls from other schools and towns and bonding over walking out of the test screenings?

~ And that test audience in Mac@o? Yeah, they confirmed they'll be no international opening either

~ Not my info, and no names please...

(Some of us still love the character.)

 

https://hollywoodlife.com/2023/04/17/margot-robbie-cowboy-barbie-reshoots-photos/

 

Margot Robbie Dresses As Cowboy Barbie In Reshoots Of Highly Anticipated Film: Photos

Three months ahead of the 'Barbie' movie premiere, Margot Robbie was spotted in full costume while reshooting scenes in Los Angeles on Apr. 17.

[jedijake]

Is Disney allowed to use these early reactions in their marketing campaign?

[Last Man Standing]

8 hours ago, joselowe said:

~ It's not that the male lead isn't funny or handsome...It's that even if the late script doctor Carrie Fisher rewrote his lines, they'd still fall flat?

(He just wasn't feeling it and "was only in it for the check." Allegedly, and no judgment because the economy is bad?)

 

I don't buy it that Gosling was only in it for the check witht he way he's promoting it.