Weekend Estimates (Page 50): The Conjuring 40.3M | Warcraft 24M | NYSM 23M| TMNT 14.8M | X-Men 10M | Me Before You 9.2M

[CJohn]

7 minutes ago, The Pandaren said:

This 10.7m Friday was merely a setback for Warcraft.  Clearly it's a backloaded movie that plays well with families and it'll see a nice 50% increase today!

Don't forget the moms  

[RichWS]

13 minutes ago, lab276 said:

Those Sunday drops seem a little extreme.

 

Don't bother.

[johnboy3434]

12 minutes ago, lab276 said:

Those Sunday drops seem a little extreme.

 

Those weren't my calculations, actually. I just ripped the rises and drops directly from other movies: Annabelle for Conjuring 2, John Carter for Warcraft, and Tower Heist for Now You See Me 2.

[filmnerdjamie]

1 hour ago, Ethan Hunt said:

I agree.

 

Some people have been going insane with theit Pets predictions expecting similar to Zootopia. I think closer to 250M

 

Agreed. $300M could be reached if the remainder of the summer releases really shit the bed... which is possible.

[grim22]

14 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

 

Those weren't my calculations, actually. I just ripped the rises and drops directly from other movies: Annabelle for Conjuring 2, John Carter for Warcraft, and Tower Heist for Now You See Me 2.

 

A September release, a March release and a November release don't approximate summer releases

 

Warcraft is now 3rd on the Movietickets sales trending list, the battle for 2nd place this weekend will be close.

[Empire]

10 hours ago, department store basement said:

 

Jungle Book is still here though.

Popstar is better. 

[Bishop54]

Warcraft is a disaster. What were they thinking?

[The Panda]

29 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Don't forget the moms  

 

The moms are all turning out Sunday after church, obviously.

[JennaJ]

23 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

 

Those weren't my calculations, actually. I just ripped the rises and drops directly from other movies.

 

Have to know which movies to choose. Otherwise you're just throwing meaningless numbers around.

[Krissykins]

33 minutes ago, James said:

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$16,400,000	45.7%
+ Foreign:	$19,500,000	54.3%
= Worldwide:	$35,900,000

The Conjuring 2 made 19.5m OS on Friday alone. Lol.  I think it can manage over 60m for the weekend. And it still has to open in UK, France, Germany, Russia, Spain, Italy, Japan plus a few other territories.

 

The original made 180m OS. Thinking this one makes at least 200m.

 

I just noticed this on the site, that's a fantastic start! Can't wait to see it on Monday. 

[johnboy3434]

11 minutes ago, JennaJ said:

 

Have to know which movies to choose. Otherwise you're just throwing meaningless numbers around.

 

I picked them from each of the new films' Similar Movies tab on BOM, choosing the one that had the closest post-inflation OD gross to the new film.

 

Edited June 11, 2016 by johnboy3434

[Chewy]

Warcraft gonna get a sequel with Boyega as the lead

[TalismanRing]

BO.com early weekend projections

 

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	The Conjuring 2	$35,000,000	—	3,343	—	$10,470	$35,000,000	1	Warner Bros. / New Line
2	Now You See Me 2	$23,000,000	—	3,232	—	$7,116	$23,000,000	1	Lionsgate / Summit
3	Warcraft	$22,500,000	—	3,400	—	$6,618	$22,500,000	1	Universal
4	Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows	$14,200,000	-60%	4,071	0	$3,488	$60,439,783	2	Paramount
5	Me Before You	$9,800,000	-48%	2,762	58	$3,548	$37,412,578	2	Warner Bros. / New Line
6	X-Men: Apocalypse	$9,500,000	-58%	3,585	-568	$2,650	$135,874,195	3	Fox
7	The Angry Birds Movie	$7,100,000	-30%	3,083	-401	$2,303	$98,569,623	4	Sony / Columbia
8	Alice Through the Looking Glass	$5,900,000	-48%	2,898	-865	$2,036	$62,792,611	3	Disney
9	Captain America: Civil War	$4,400,000	-44%	2,101	-983	$2,094	$396,957,148	6	Disney
10	The Jungle Book (2016)	$2,900,000	-35%	1,496	-494	$1,939	$352,828,689	9	Disney
11	Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising	$2,100,000	-57%	1,581	-836	$1,328	$53,068,225	4	Universal
12	The Nice Guys	$1,900,000	-45%	1,147	-741	$1,656	$32,442,192	4	Warner Bros.
13	Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping	$1,600,000	-66%	2,313	2	$692	$8,231,280	2	Universal

[The Panda]

5 minutes ago, Chewy said:

Warcraft gonna get a sequel with Boyega as the lead

 

This man knows that the great Warcraft will get all the sequels and all the movie stars.

[narniadis]

26 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

 

I picked them from each of the new films' Similar Movies tab on BOM, choosing the one that had the closest post-inflation OD gross to the new film.

 

Which can work in some cases but as was noted summer releases work incredibly different when it comes to the day to day behavior. Films will not drop more than 35% on Sunday and even that will be extreme. 

 

Learning proper context goes a long way to helping predict future behavior - much like last week and having your comparisons on some films be easter weekend when it just doesn't work outside that period. 

 

As I always say I enjoy your charts and watching you learn so keep up the work. 

[narniadis]

Has anyone seen @e1828 ?? I am missing his charts and it seems to have been a while since he was around. 

[RandomCat]

Saw Warcraft...

 

It was pretty. 

[RichWS]

FINALLY seeing Nice Guys tonight. Local multiplex still has a single 9:20 showing.

[ACSlater]

Random but I finally saw the newest F4 finally and I have to say it makes shit look pretty...

 

Warcraft soon hopefully in a bit...

Edited June 11, 2016 by ACSlater

[CJohn]

30 minutes ago, Chewy said:

Warcraft gonna get a sequel with Boyega as the lead

What about Adam Driver and Daisy Ridley  ?