Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M

[Dementeleus]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Why though? Minions just missed that mark and Dory obliterated its late nights. I think it beat it by way too much to not be pulling at least a solid 15m higher than it for OW.

 

Because Pixar loonies cause more more preview->Friday frontloading than most other animated movies. DORY is also a direct sequel, MINIONS wasn't.

[filmlover]

I've been seeing Finding Dory/The Secret Life of Pets playing similar to Toy Story 3/Despicable Me this whole time.

[James]

Do we have a thread for this movie:?

 

 

I really dig the trailer.

[grey ghost]

5 minutes ago, superweirdo87 said:

That would make it tough for Rogue One to win the year.

 

Still, we shouldn't underestimate anything with Star Wars in the title.

 

I can see 160 m OW with 3.7 legs which puts Rogue One close to 600 m.

 

Just wait till marketing hits it stride.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Telemachos said:

 

Because Pixar loonies cause more more preview->Friday frontloading than most other animated movies. DORY is also a direct sequel, MINIONS wasn't.

Yeah, but my point being even a 130m OW off of that previews number makes it WAY more front loaded than Minions. As I said, it would hit 170 off of that preview number if it followed Minions patterns. I have to think theres only like a 1% chance of it missing the animated OW record now.

[Dementeleus]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I have to think theres only like a 1% chance of it missing the animated OW record now.

 

Yes, it seems likely unless Friday comes in a bit less than expected. MINIONS isn't a great day-to-day example because it opened in the heart of July.

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, johnboy3434 said:

 

Same here. It pretends to make salient points about society, but there's no real substance behind any of its critiques, and the assumptions that lead to its doomsaying vision of the future are extremely questionable if not demonstrably false.

 

What's false about Idiocracy's satire?

 

Have you looked at politics, consumerism and entertainment? It's all pretty damn low brow.

[Heretic]

Very nice to see such a massive number for Dory. Just goes to show how popular Nemo really is. Arguably the most popular animated film ever.

[mahnamahna]

 

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah, but my point being even a 130m OW off of that previews number makes it WAY more front loaded than Minions. As I said, it would hit 170 off of that preview number if it followed Minions patterns. I have to think theres only like a 1% chance of it missing the animated OW record now.

 

Worst case would be around TS3's OW ($110 million), best case likely $160-165 million. 

 

$130-140 million is the safe projection for now. 

[MCKillswitch123]

15 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

Because Pixar loonies cause more more preview->Friday frontloading than most other animated movies. DORY is also a direct sequel, MINIONS wasn't.

 

But Minions are the main reason people go to see the Despicable Me movies anyway, so in their mind, that was gonna be something to watch, sequel or not. I think Dory is a bigger event but both films are perfectly comparable in terms of pre-release hype for the GA, not to mention both had quite the marketing machine.

Edited June 17, 2016 by MCKillswitch123

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, The Futurist said:

Deadpool shows how much the movie Idiocracy was visionary.

 

Deadpool is vulgar and absurd but it's not a bad movie.

 

Bayformers 2 is an example of shitty entertainment that was wildly successful.

[Mango]

I think $120-130 million. It's not impossible for it to land around TS3/Minions, though.

[mahnamahna]

11 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Still, we shouldn't underestimate anything with Star Wars in the title.

 

I can see 160 m OW with 3.7 legs which puts Rogue One close to 600 m.

 

Just wait till marketing hits it stride.

 

If the reshoots don't fix the film's issues, I could see $120 million OW, $425 million DOM. Good for top 3 DOM/WW, but not enough for #1 if Dory opens to $135 million+. 

 

Especially since Passengers is gaining buzz and Sing will draw in more families than Alvin 4. Assassin's Creed  will take away screens and showtimes from Rogue One, too, even if it manages to do only $40-50 million DOM. 

 

 

[mahnamahna]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I've been seeing Finding Dory/The Secret Life of Pets playing similar to Toy Story 3/Despicable Me this whole time.

 

The comparison is remarkably similar - well-received, well-marketed Pixar sequel and well-marketed, light-hearted Illumination original. Both will be in the top 5 DOM for Summer 2016 IMO. 

 

I think both will finish above their counterparts. Dory at $450-475 million, Pets at $260-320 million. 

[TalismanRing]

25 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Still, we shouldn't underestimate anything with Star Wars in the title.

 

I can see 160 m OW with 3.7 legs which puts Rogue One close to 600 m.

 

Just wait till marketing hits it stride.

 

Rogue One doesn't look like any fun.  It looks dreary and charmless.  TFA was a mediocre nostalgia trip but it was fun.

 

I gather the reshoots are trying to change that.

[POTUS 2020]

https://deadline.com/2016/06/finding-dory-box-office-central-intelligence-captain-america-totals-1201774498/

 

2ND UPDATE: We’re hearing that Disney-Pixar’s Finding Dory is swimming upstream to a record opening of $130M+ for the weekend and today alone will clear $50M-$52M. These are off of matinees estimates from rival distribs. Warner Bros/New Line/Universal’s Central Intelligence is also poised to fare well with a $12M-$13M Friday and a FSS opening north of $33M.

Edited June 17, 2016 by No Prisoners

[FlashMaster659]

We’re hearing that Disney-Pixar’s Finding Dory is swimming upstream to a record opening of $130M+ for the weekend and today alone will clear $50M-$52M.

[MinaTakla]

I love weekends like this on this forum.

I still remember the awesome JW, IO and Minions weekends last year - with all the surprises and the arguments

This weekend and the Pets weekend in July are my most anticipated on this forum

Keep it guys!

[MovieMan89]

13 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

 

The comparison is remarkably similar - well-received, well-marketed Pixar sequel and well-marketed, light-hearted Illumination original. Both will be in the top 5 DOM for Summer 2016 IMO. 

 

I think both will finish above their counterparts. Dory at $450-475 million, Pets at $260-320 million. 

Great point, not sure how I never saw that parallel before!

Edited June 17, 2016 by MovieMan89

[Daxtreme]

4 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

https://deadline.com/2016/06/finding-dory-box-office-central-intelligence-captain-america-totals-1201774498/

 

2ND UPDATE: We’re hearing that Disney-Pixar’s Finding Dory is swimming upstream to a record opening of $130M+ for the weekend and today alone will clear $50M-$52M. These are off of matinees estimates from rival distribs. Warner Bros/New Line/Universal’s Central Intelligence is also poised to fare well with a $12M-$13M Friday and a FSS opening north of $33M.