July 1-4 Weekend Estimates | Dory 50.2m, Tarzan 45.6m, Purge 34.8m, BFG 22.2m, IDR 20.2m

[Planodisney]

I think a 50% drop but see 85-90 million opener for Pets.  There is a ton of buz for this with kids and families.

[MovieMan89]

I think Pets does 100-105 and Dory does 23-25 and animation rules the free world.

Edited July 5, 2016 by MovieMan89

[fastclock]

2 hours ago, tribefan695 said:

 

T-Mobile offered free movie tickets?! 

 

 

 

T-mobile free tuesday offer: 

This week

Previous weeks

 

 

[mahnamahna]

2 hours ago, a2knet said:

I think DORY will do ~20m (-52%) this weekend. And then have some crazy good holds again for 500m+. The fun number to hit imo is 515m (TS3 + 100m).

 

I'd say $22.5-23.5 million for its 4th weekend. Dory has enough teen/adult appeal that I don't think it will plummet against Pets with a 50%+ drop.

 

Plus, since there's nothing else to go see this next weekend besides Pets and Tarzan (that'll be doing $15 million+ over the 3-day), Dory should be able to drop 40-45%. 45-50% is fairly likely. But 38-42% is certainly plausible based on TS3 and IO.

 

Especially IO, since Pets will most likely have a sub-$90 million OW compared to Minions' $115 million OW. 

 

If Pets and IA5 hit Dory hard: 

$20 million ($422 million)

$15 million ($453 million)

$7 million ($468 million)

$5.5 million ($480 million)

$4 million ($488 million)

$3 million ($492 million) 

$1.5 million ($494 million) 

$1 million ($495 million) 

$2.25 million/$3 million ($499 million)

$504 million DOM 

 

If Pets and IA5 don't hit Dory too hard:

$25 million ($427 million) 

$18 million ($463 million)

$10 million ($484 million)

$7.5 million ($499 million)

$5.5 million ($509 million)

$3.5 million ($514 million) 

$2 million ($516 million) 

$1.5 million ($519 million) 

$2.75 million/$3.75 million ($523 million) 

$531 million DOM 

 

$500 million DOM should happen, even with 50%+ drops against Pets and Ice Age 5. 

 

$480-485 million is about the lowest I see it going (if it drops 55%+ against Pets and IA5). And that would require continuous 40%+ drops for the remainder of its run, pretty much. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 5, 2016 by mahnamahna

[Jim Shorts]

I think Pets will be one of those movies where the teaser trailer will be way better than the actual movie itself.

 

From the new trailers, Pets is basically a copy of Toy Story 1&2 but with animals instead of toys. 

[mahnamahna]

32 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think Pets does 100-105 and Dory does 23-25 and animation rules the free world.

$130 million between the two and Tarzan doing $20-22 million (44-48% drop) would be a solid post-July 4th frame. 

 

$105 million OW would put Pets on pace for $350-375 million DOM, Dory would be on pace for $500 million+ DOM and Tarzan would have a chance at a 3x from its 4-day ($135-140 million). 

[Bonenash]

Seriously guys the dory's run may be amazing it's a fact but for me  in 2016 the most amazing BO run is The jungle book.

 

 

Look at BOM daily and Week end drop it's unreal for a movie that opened >100m dollars.

 

41 days for the day below 1 million and could have been 47.... WOW

 

The movie is a definition of WOM  which kiss ass.

 

What a run what a run.

[K1stpierre]

2 minutes ago, Bonenash said:

Seriously guys the dory's run may be amazing it's a fact but for me  in 2016 the most amazing BO run is The jungle book.

 

 

Look at BOM daily and Week end drop it's unreal for a movie that opened >100m dollars.

 

41 days for the day below 1 million and could have been 47.... WOW

 

The movie is a definition of WOM  which kiss ass.

 

What a run what a run.

 

Ditto, I found JB's run to be really quite impressive, especially given the fact that it's more scarier than the cartoon which I thought might have made it too scary for young kids.

[a2k]

18 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

I'd say $22.5-23.5 million for its 4th weekend. Dory has enough teen/adult appeal that I don't think it will plummet against Pets with a 50%+ drop.

 

Plus, since there's nothing else to go see this next weekend besides Pets and Tarzan (that'll be doing $15 million+ over the 3-day), Dory should be able to drop 40-45%. 45-50% is fairly likely. But 38-42% is certainly plausible based on TS3 and IO.

 

Especially IO, since Pets will most likely have a sub-$90 million OW compared to Minions' $115 million OW. 

 

If Pets and IA5 hit Dory hard: 

$20 million ($422 million)

$15 million ($453 million)

$7 million ($468 million)

$5.5 million ($480 million)

$4 million ($488 million)

$3 million ($492 million) 

$1.5 million ($494 million) 

$1 million ($495 million) 

$2.25 million/$3 million ($499 million)

$504 million DOM 

 

If Pets and IA5 don't hit Dory too hard:

$25 million ($427 million) 

$18 million ($463 million)

$10 million ($484 million)

$7.5 million ($499 million)

$5.5 million ($509 million)

$3.5 million ($514 million) 

$2 million ($516 million) 

$1.5 million ($519 million) 

$2.75 million/$3.75 million ($523 million) 

$531 million DOM 

 

$500 million DOM should happen, even with 50%+ drops against Pets and Ice Age 5. 

 

$480-485 million is about the lowest I see it going (if it drops 55%+ against Pets and IA5). And that would require continuous 40%+ drops for the remainder of its run, pretty much. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, a drop closer to 45% than 50% should happen looking at how IO and TS3 performed against competition. They held too well while Dory with stronger Sun, Mon, Tue (discount getting popular each year) so will fall a bit harder. 21.5-23.5m is fair guess. I have no doubt it will cross 500m. It's 119m away after Monday and looking at how TS3 and IO did after their 3rd Monday, am expecting 510-520m.

 

Edit: What an amazing performance. Didn't see this coming at all. Even on the high end when folks were more optimistic in the beginning of the year, was expecting it will take down Shrek 2's 441m and get 450m.

 

A few days before release who was expecting DORY to beat CW by 100m+, TJB by 150m+ and ZOOTP by 170m+.

Edited July 5, 2016 by a2knet

[WrathOfHan]

54 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think Pets does 100-105 and Dory does 23-25 and animation rules the free world.

SLOP needs some insane walkups for 100M because it's trailing Dory at the same point in time hard in presales.

Edited July 5, 2016 by WrathOfHan

[AniNate]

36 minutes ago, fastclock said:

 

T-mobile free tuesday offer: 

This week

Previous weeks

 

 

 

Shit,  I gotta stay on top of this 

[Olive]

Daily Domestic Chart for Monday July 4th, 2016

← Previous Chart

Chart Index

 

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
-	(-)	Independence Day: Resurgence	20th Century Fox	$4,962,960	-15%	4,091	$1,213	$77,838,999	11
-	(-)	The Purge: Election Year	Universal	$4,624,185	-39%	2,796	$1,654	$36,139,295	4
-	(-)	The Shallows	Sony Pictures	$1,751,050	-35%	2,962	$591	$36,779,887	11
-	(-)	Free State of Jones	STX Entertainment	$1,162,043	-19%	2,781	$418	$16,368,264	11
-	(-)	Our Kind of Traitor	Lionsgate/Roadside …	$224,911	-29%	373	$603	$1,208,306	4
-	(-)	X-Men: Apocalypse	20th Century Fox	$208,074	-31%	630	$330	$153,711,167	39
-	(-)	Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle…	Paramount Pictures	$187,505	-24%	719	$261	$79,689,467	32
-	(-)	Love & Friendship	Roadside Attractions	$108,208	-24%	185	$585	$12,658,917	53
-	(-)	Warcraft	Universal	$97,835	-41%	411	$238	$45,896,490	25
-	(-)	The Angry Birds Movie	Sony Pictures	$66,828	-31%	278	$240	$105,749,018	46

[grim22]

25 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

 

Shit,  I gotta stay on top of this 

 

You need to get their app. I have basically been getting a free movie ticket and a free movie rental from Vudu the past month every week. Great deals for movie lovers.

[Olive]

    Weekend

    Finding Dory    Walt Disney    $41,817,176    

    The BFG    Walt Disney    $18,775,350

    Monday

    Finding Dory    Walt Disney    $9,619,207    -28%    4,305    $2,234      $381,785,985    

    The BFG    Walt Disney    $3,941,459    -27%    3,357    $1,174      $22,716,809

Edited July 5, 2016 by Olive

[a2k]

actuals for DORY

$41,817,176 3-day

$9,619,207 Monday

$51,436,383 4-day

 http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Finding-Dory#tab=box-office

Edited July 5, 2016 by a2knet

[FlashMaster659]

Just now, a2knet said:

$41,817,176 3-day actuals for DORY. http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Finding-Dory#tab=box-office

 

Add to it 9.5m Monday from @nilephelan, the 4-day is ~51.3m.

 

 

Ended up being $9.6M Monday

[grim22]

This line in the Deadline weekend preview is just

 

 

Pets is on its way to open above the Minions spinoff Despicable Me‘s $56.39M which also opened in July — albeit 2010.
 

The Minions Spinoff "Despicable Me"  

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, grim22 said:

This line in the Deadline weekend preview is just

 

 

Pets is on its way to open above the Minions spinoff Despicable Me‘s $56.39M which also opened in July — albeit 2010.
 

The Minions Spinoff "Despicable Me"  

At this point they're probably right  

[fmpro]

7 hours ago, nilephelan said:

My math sucks, but here you go.....

 

$9.5m for Dory

$8m for Tarzan

$5m for Independence Day

$4.6m for The Purge

$4m for BFG

 

Most came in way above estimates.  

 

Your math is gooooooooood

[mahnamahna]

Dory, IDR, Tarzan, Purge 3 and Central Intelligence all had solid bumps from actuals to estimates.