Weekend Thread | Read first post for rules | Weekend #s: Pets 50.56M, GB 46M, Tarzan 11.1M, FTF 11M, MND 7.5M, Purge 6M

[Rman823]

Nice to see that Ghostbusters IMDB score has rose back up to 5.1 while still not where it deserves to be it's still more deserving than a 3.7. 

[Jason]

1 hour ago, UrosepsisFace said:

Wouldn't you have to do two correlations? Summer vs non-Summer? 

 

I've just constructed a table with a total of 79 films* and I'm doing some preliminary analysis right now. Summer vs non-summer doesn't seem to make a significant difference, but I'll show the graphs anyway. I'm a bit hesitant to do an analysis for animated films only, there are only 14 animated films in the set, even including The Jungle Book.

 

In the larger set I'm now using it does appear that using 2nd weekend vs OW gives a stronger correlation than 2nd week (Mon-Sun) vs OW. But I think the difference falls a bit short of being "significant" (P <0.05).

 

It's getting late so I'm going to finish off the graphs and significance-checking tomorrow. Stay tuned if you're interested. 

 

*For inclusion in the table, a film needed have an opening day on Friday and appear in all three of these lists: OW, 2nd weekends, 10-day totals. It also needed to not be Avatar, which is a major outlier.

[DAJK]

Saw Ghostbusters for a second time tonight after work, this time in 3D. Missed the first 10 minutes this time around, but if you have the chance, I recommend the 3D for this one.

[keysersoze123]

5 hours ago, Baumer said:

Just for the hell of it, take a look at it this way.

 

Pet's made 104 mill opening weekend. 

By the end of its second weekend, it's grossed 203 million.

That means from it's first Monday to it's second Sunday, it grossed 95% of what it did opening weekend.

 

Zootopia grossed 75 million in its first weekend.

By the end of the second weekend, it had grossed 143 million.

That's 90% of what it grossed opening weekend.

 

Jungle Book grossed 103 million OW

By the end of the second weekend, it was at 192 million

This means it grossed 85% of what it did OW.

 

Inside Out opened to 90 million

By the end of the second weekend it was at 185 million

105% of what it did OW

 

Finding Dory:  135

286

111% of the opening weekend.

 

The Lego Movie:  69 OW

Second weekend total:  130 mill

88% of it's OW

 

Big Hero 6:  56 OW

110 after two weekends

96% more after first weekend.

 

Brave:  66 OW

131 second weekend 

98%

 

So you see my point here.  IO and Dory are definitely the exception, not the rule.  When you have animated films, it isn't necessarily about what they drop in their second weekend, it's the ration of what they did from their first until the second weekend is up.  Dory and IO are freaks, no doubt, but Pets 95% addition is better than both Zootopia and Jungle Book.  So to say that Illumination needs to watch their marketing budget and that they are more frontloaded than other animated films, is false.  The reason it fell 52% this weekend is because the summer weekdays were so strong, it burned off demand.  Where as when you have spring films, they fall less on the weekends because the demand was not met during the week. So Illumination has no misstep.  I have no idea if it will pass Zootopia or catch JB.  I do know, or at least feel that it will get to about Zootopia's number. Regardless of what it does, it's an outstanding success and if you want to chalk part of that up to marketing, then I have no problem with that.  They made Pets the second biggest film of the summer.  That's impressive.  So I'm just pointing out that sometimes, you have to go a little deeper with the numbers if you want to get the real story.  

 

cant compare Pets to Zoo or Jungle Book. Pets is a summer release while Zoo/JB released in march/april when weekends tend to have biggest chunk of BO. So one way to look at it would be how good the weekend holds are. Zoo/JB had much better holds than Pets.

[baumer]

You obviously missed the whole point of my post keyser. That's why I comares the amount they earneed in the first ten days. Summer films fall harder on the weekend because too much demand has been burned up during the week.

 

Did u even read my post? 

[straggler]

Does Tarzan still have a lot of territories left where it hasn't opened? Because right now after this weekend it is at about $194 million WW on a $180 million dollar budget.

[Krissykins]

4 minutes ago, straggler said:

Does Tarzan still have a lot of territories left where it hasn't opened? Because right now after this weekend it is at about $194 million WW on a $180 million dollar budget.

 

It has China tomorrow then 6 last major markets ending 30th July.

[James]

18 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

It has China tomorrow then 6 last major markets ending 30th July.

I am seriously thinking it is headed for 400-410 WW.

It's OS territories dropped less than 20% this weekend which indicated insane WOM. I'm thinking it can go to about 150m from the current markets + 50m-ish from China + 70m-ish from the rest of the OS markets.   

[Krissykins]

20 minutes ago, James said:

I am seriously thinking it is headed for 400-410 WW.

It's OS territories dropped less than 20% this weekend which indicated insane WOM. I'm thinking it can go to about 150m from the current markets + 50m-ish from China + 70m-ish from the rest of the OS markets.   

 

If Tarzan does $400m and gets a sequel, Sony would be mad not to greenlight a sequel to Ghostbusters if it does $300m worldwide , without China. 

[James]

13 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

If Tarzan does $400m and gets a sequel, Sony would be mad not to greenlight a sequel to Ghostbusters if it does $300m worldwide , without China. 

I doubt Warner will green lit a sequel. You can understand why they did it for Godzilla (530m on a 160m budget), but even if Tarzan makes some profit with home video and TV, it would probably be pretty small and they have enough franchises for now. But even so, there's a positive. With the solid WOM it's been getting it consolidates David Yates position with WB. The guy knows how to create spectacle and I hope they give him more movies to direct. 

[a2k]

After a 166m OW, BVS's 2nd Friday was 15.0m. 

Less than 15.3m of PETS.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, James said:

I am seriously thinking it is headed for 400-410 WW.

It's OS territories dropped less than 20% this weekend which indicated insane WOM. I'm thinking it can go to about 150m from the current markets + 50m-ish from China + 70m-ish from the rest of the OS markets.   

 

it did not drop 20%. it opened in scandinavian markets(at 4.5m) and Italy 1.6m. Plus there were couple of small markets(not sure what chile or cambodia or worth). Also we just got out of euro and so hold in france was good.

 

That being said its having a decent run but nothing great. Sequel is depending on if WB see it has big growth potential. I am skeptical at this point. If we have not seen Pacific Run sequel I doubt we will see for Tarzan.

[fmpro]

2 hours ago, James said:

I am seriously thinking it is headed for 400-410 WW.

It's OS territories dropped less than 20% this weekend which indicated insane WOM. I'm thinking it can go to about 150m from the current markets + 50m-ish from China + 70m-ish from the rest of the OS markets.   

 

I don't think it will hit 400 mill WW. China won't be that big. I'm thinking 30-40 mill due to weak presales..

350-375 mill is more realistic

[That One Girl]

Lmao some people on the IMDB boards were saying Ghostbusters will drop 80% next weekend  

[keysersoze123]

if GB was frontloaded it would have dropped on saturday  minus previews. it increased and so its not going to be frontloaded. I think female driven movies tend to have strong weekdays and so minimum multi should be 2.5x. if the WOM is good it will do 3x+. we will know after we have its wednesday number.

[James]

Hmm... looking at NYSM2's run. With France, Germany, Japan and Spain still left to go and the huge numbers coming from SK it will close with around the same as the first one WW (350M WW). Big hit for Lionsgate. I bet we'll get a third one.

[WrathOfHan]

15 minutes ago, James said:

Hmm... looking at NYSM2's run. With France, Germany, Japan and Spain still left to go and the huge numbers coming from SK it will close with around the same as the first one WW (350M WW). Big hit for Lionsgate. I bet we'll get a third one.

There's a Chinese spinoff in the works after how huge it did there  

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, Baumer said:

You obviously missed the whole point of my post keyser. That's why I comares the amount they earneed in the first ten days. Summer films fall harder on the weekend because too much demand has been burned up during the week.

 

Did u even read my post? 

 

Nah. Its too long to read it line by line :-). My point is Zoo and JB were WOM monsters that held way better than norm. You need to compare Pets with summer release to gauge how the WOM is. Its not bad(did not drop like minions did) but its definitely not great considering ghostbusters was not a direct competition. Next weekend its facing direct competition plus will lose PLF screens and so will find it tough to have a great hold(though I believe Ice Age 5 will flop).

[James]

36 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

There's a Chinese spinoff in the works after how huge it did there  

Oh

[baumer]

48 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Nah. Its too long to read it line by line :-). My point is Zoo and JB were WOM monsters that held way better than norm. You need to compare Pets with summer release to gauge how the WOM is. Its not bad(did not drop like minions did) but its definitely not great considering ghostbusters was not a direct competition. Next weekend its facing direct competition plus will lose PLF screens and so will find it tough to have a great hold(though I believe Ice Age 5 will flop).

 

Again, you completely missed my point which if u read the post youd see how much your post doesn't make a lot of sense.