Fear of Derby is illogical. | Week 31

[AndyLL]

Included the Wednesday opener... hopefully that will help the new release %

 

http://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Predictions.aspx

 

[POTUS 2020]

Here's the sheet. Enter estimates next to AndyLL only, an entry in any other cell will cause a virus that will shut down BOT and @Baumer will go all out Jason on you

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_6LrNBRj2YIOemC1BSK0t8vUoJHJCb9IoPeglEmZ-0g/edit?usp=sharing

 

 

Last week of the month and the top scorers are...

TalismanRing 160
Matrix4You    142
No Prisoners  134
Exxdee          133

 

Me and @TalismanRing in the tourney final. I would wish you luck, but that's your name and you're on fire

strength and honor

[dxmatrixdt]

[POTUS 2020]

Using deadline numbers. Tarzan was not reported. I used the 2.4m matching #10.

Im not sure how Lights Out jumped so big on Friday, it was bigger than any Purge or Shallows jump, that may be off by 10%

IA5 bumped more than FD or Minions last year. How a POS does that I don't know. Also could be revised fown 5-10%

The derby average continues to do well. BO.com trying to make it into the top 20 for the first time. BOM still wallowing in the bottom 50% for 4 weeks in a row

@TalismanRing are close for the tourney. He has the month won.

1	TalismanRing	90.92	25	Horror Wizard	84.53
2	Bates	90.51	26	cannastop	84.18
3	No Prisoners	90.25	27	AndyLL	84.16
4	Rolling Thunder	90.25	28	JMorphin	83.96
5	keysersoze123	90.13	29	Wrath	83.79
6	Matrix4You	90.08	30	Olive	83.52
7	Wildbill	89.82	31	Spaghetti	83.47
8	8wombi7	88.47	32	Wonka	83.22
9	Exxdee	88.38	33	24Lost	83.02
10	Derby Average	88.01	34	BoxOfficeMojo	82.96
11	JohnnY	87.81	35	CoolEric258	82.74
12	Iraf	87.64	36	nelmsey	82.46
13	moviecriticguy	87.25	37	RandomJC	81.76
14	SquareWatcher	87.19	38	Fanboy	81.64
15	kayumanggi	86.70	39	WrathOfHan	81.31
16	PanaMovie	86.65	40	AABATTERY	80.84
17	Viceversa	86.36	41	ChipMunky	80.55
18	narniadis	86.28	42	luxneji	80.17
19	ShinyDave	86.20	43	lilmac	78.36
20	BoxOffice.com	86.15	44	Blanks McCoy	77.08
21	Simionski	86.14	45	Arlborn	77.03
22	Boxx93	86.10	46	bapi	76.38
23	darkelf	85.66	47	boxofficeth	75.18
24	Bozly	84.53	48	Lights Camera Action	73.28

 

1). Jason Bourne (UNI), 4,026 theaters / $22M to $22.5M Fri. (includes $4.3M previews) / 3-day cume: $59.8M to $61M / Wk 1

2). Bad Moms (STX), 3,215 theaters / $9.6M (includes $2M previews) / 3-day cume: $26M to $27M / Wk 1

3). Star Trek Beyond (PAR), 3,928 theaters (0) / $6.6M Fri. / 3-day cume: $22.8M (-61%) / Total cume: $104M / Wk 2

4). The Secret Life of Pets (ILL/UNI), 3,677 theaters (-371) / $5.6M to $5.8M Fri. / 3-day cume: $19M / Total Cume: $296.4M/ Wk 4

5). Ice Age: Collision Course (FOX), 3,052 theaters (+5) / $3.3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $10.5M to $11.2M (-51%) / Total cume: $42.5M / Wk 2

6). Ghostbusters (SONY), 3,052 theaters (-911) / $2.7M Fri. / 3-day cume: $9M / Total: $105.5M / Wk 3

7). Lights Out (WB/NL), 2,818 theaters / $3.6M Fri. / 3-day cume: $10.8M (-50%) / Wk 2

8). Nerve (LGF), 2,538 theaters / $3.75M Wed. (includes $1M Tues. previews) / $2.3M Thurs. / $3.1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $9M /

9). Finding Dory (DIS), 1,733 theaters (-843) / $1.3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $4.6M / Total cume: $469.3M / Wk 7

10.) Hillary’s America…(Qual), 1,066 theaters (-151) / $753K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.4M / Total: $8.7M / Wk 3

Edited July 30, 2016 by No Prisoners

[POTUS 2020]

The Derby according to Rth

Major shift in the top 5. @keysersoze123 esta en fuego. Going to average 90% your first 4 weeks? We gotta new contenda!

As I thought LO was way high. IA came down a bit. GB went up 10% and Tarzan may be 2.8m. BO.com back in the bottom 50%

1	No Prisoners Tourney Final	94.39	25	BoxOffice.com	86.98
2	Bates	93.73	26	24Lost	86.74
3	keysersoze123	93.52	27	Olive	85.95
4	Wildbill	92.87	28	Fanboy	85.86
5	TalismanRing  Tourney Final	92.51	29	Bozly	85.81
6	Exxdee	92.36	30	luxneji	85.80
7	Rolling Thunder	91.86	31	ChipMunky	85.66
8	SquareWatcher	91.51	32	AndyLL	85.40
9	Matrix4You	91.44	33	RandomJC	85.20
10	PanaMovie	90.89	34	BoxOfficeMojo	85.08
11	Derby Average	90.89	35	CoolEric258	85.03
12	JohnnY	89.79	36	Wonka	84.93
13	Simionski	89.59	37	Spaghetti	84.31
14	Horror Wizard	89.39	38	nelmsey	84.28
15	moviecriticguy	89.25	39	Wrath	83.99
16	8wombi7	88.71	40	WrathOfHan	83.59
17	darkelf	88.66	41	AABATTERY	82.61
18	narniadis	88.25	42	JMorphin	81.77
19	cannastop	87.94	43	lilmac	81.04
20	ShinyDave	87.87	44	Blanks McCoy	80.20
21	Iraf	87.80	45	Arlborn	79.71
22	Boxx93	87.40	46	Lights Camera Action	79.05
23	kayumanggi	87.37	47	boxofficeth	77.01
24	Viceversa	87.13	48	bapi	76.85

 

 

Weekend Thread | Friday Numbers | Rth 11:30pm update Bourne 23.3, Bad Moms 9.6, Trek 6.7, Pets 5.5, Lights Out 3.5, Nerve/GB/IA5 3.1, FTF 1.1, Tarzan .8         

Edited July 30, 2016 by No Prisoners

[keysersoze123]

I was way too high on trek. But that is more hope than prediction :-) otherwise I liked this week's derby.

[POTUS 2020]

Using BO.com's projections

 

1	Bates	93.25	25	BoxOfficeMojo	85.62
2	Rolling Thunder	92.75	26	kayumanggi	85.37
3	TalismanRing Tourney Final	92.51	27	Viceversa	85.31
4	Exxdee	92.46	28	24Lost	85.14
5	No Prisoners Tourney Final	91.86	29	BoxOffice.com	85.01
6	Matrix4You	91.80	30	AndyLL	84.79
7	Wildbill	91.69	31	RandomJC	84.42
8	moviecriticguy	91.63	32	luxneji	84.24
9	keysersoze123	91.59	33	CoolEric258	84.17
10	8wombi7	91.49	34	Fanboy	84.08
11	SquareWatcher	90.83	35	Wonka	82.92
12	Derby Average	90.40	36	Spaghetti	82.89
13	Iraf	89.66	37	JMorphin	82.56
14	Simionski	88.37	38	Wrath	82.48
15	Horror Wizard	88.28	39	ChipMunky	82.46
16	darkelf	88.21	40	WrathOfHan	82.42
17	PanaMovie	88.06	41	nelmsey	80.96
18	ShinyDave	86.83	42	AABATTERY	80.6
19	JohnnY	86.63	43	Blanks McCoy	79.68
20	Bozly	86.31	44	Arlborn	79.6
21	narniadis	86.29	45	lilmac	79.10
22	Boxx93	86.26	46	boxofficeth	76.85
23	Olive	86.18	47	Lights Camera Action	75.88
24	cannastop	85.65	48	bapi	74.30

[ShinyDave]

Looks like I fell by going way too high on Nerve, but going big on Bourne has gone a bit better (I predicted $63m, so if it holds up well today - and an A- CinemaScore suggests there's a shot - that'll really help my score), and I also called most of the Trek crash with a $24.81m guess. The other one holding me down is Tarzan, as I banked on another drop in the 40s and hadn't accounted for the number of screens it lost.

 

I am happy to be on the left side of the leaderboard though

[PanaMovie]

17 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Using BO.com's projections

 

1	Bates	93.25	25	BoxOfficeMojo	85.62
2	Rolling Thunder	92.75	26	kayumanggi	85.37
3	TalismanRing Tourney Final	92.51	27	Viceversa	85.31
4	Exxdee	92.46	28	24Lost	85.14
5	No Prisoners Tourney Final	91.86	29	BoxOffice.com	85.01
6	Matrix4You	91.80	30	AndyLL	84.79
7	Wildbill	91.69	31	RandomJC	84.42
8	moviecriticguy	91.63	32	luxneji	84.24
9	keysersoze123	91.59	33	CoolEric258	84.17
10	8wombi7	91.49	34	Fanboy	84.08
11	SquareWatcher	90.83	35	Wonka	82.92
12	Derby Average	90.40	36	Spaghetti	82.89
13	Iraf	89.66	37	JMorphin	82.56
14	Simionski	88.37	38	Wrath	82.48
15	Horror Wizard	88.28	39	ChipMunky	82.46
16	darkelf	88.21	40	WrathOfHan	82.42
17	PanaMovie	88.06	41	nelmsey	80.96
18	ShinyDave	86.83	42	AABATTERY	80.6
19	JohnnY	86.63	43	Blanks McCoy	79.68
20	Bozly	86.31	44	Arlborn	79.6
21	narniadis	86.29	45	lilmac	79.10
22	Boxx93	86.26	46	boxofficeth	76.85
23	Olive	86.18	47	Lights Camera Action	75.88
24	cannastop	85.65	48	bapi	74.30

I think they're too high on Nerve and too low on Lights Out 

 

[Rolling Thunder]

TalismanRing playing very well of late.  Nice to enjoy a hot streak while it lasts.  An excellent Derby final!

[WrathOfHan]

Did Bourne really screw me that much?  

[POTUS 2020]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Did Bourne really screw me that much?  

Told you to go hi. 

The V really tapped your bottom pretty good. What were you thinking?

[aabattery]

Star Trek dropping a lot more than I predicted. 

[POTUS 2020]

studio estimates. and the top 5 shift continues

bad moms bad daily holds propels @Wildbill to the top

@TalismanRing has the Tourney unless IA5 drops to 10.3m or IA5 to 10.4 with FD rising to 4.35

1	Wildbill	92.54	25	Olive	85.4
2	moviecriticguy	90.85	26	Horror Wizard	85.28
3	Bates	90.79	27	Spaghetti	85.21
4	TalismanRing	90.61	28	Wrath	84.83
5	Matrix4You	90.58	29	BoxOfficeMojo	84.7
6	8wombi7	90.34	30	JohnnY	84.69
7	keysersoze123	90.26	31	Bozly	84.55
8	No Prisoners	90.25	32	AndyLL	84.37
9	Rolling Thunder	90.17	33	luxneji	84.36
10	PanaMovie	89.79	34	CoolEric258	83.97
11	Derby Average	89.57	35	ChipMunky	83.81
12	Exxdee	89.21	36	AABATTERY	83.5
13	Boxx93	88.46	37	RandomJC	83.19
14	SquareWatcher	87.56	38	24Lost	82.74
15	Simionski	87.00	39	nelmsey	82.28
16	Wonka	86.84	40	Fanboy	82.06
17	Iraf	86.64	41	JMorphin	80.53
18	darkelf	86.60	42	WrathOfHan	79.97
19	ShinyDave	86.52	43	lilmac	78.71
20	kayumanggi	86.21	44	Lights Camera Action	76.38
21	Viceversa	86.15	45	bapi	76.23
22	narniadis	85.99	46	Arlborn	75.92
23	BoxOffice.com	85.84	47	Blanks McCoy	75.28
24	cannastop	85.45	48	boxofficeth	73.98

 

 

 

Edited July 31, 2016 by No Prisoners

[TalismanRing]

#2-9 are so close Actuals will probably shake things up again

[JohnnY]

for god's sake... 30th? i was in 12th with estimates

 

edit: ok, there was a mistake in my score, for some reason it was written "61" in my ghosbusters accuracy instead of the formula lol

 

i got 87.9%, which puts me in 13th

Edited July 31, 2016 by JohnnY

[Rolling Thunder]

Been wondering when Wildbill would finally get in the win column! 

[POTUS 2020]

15 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Been wondering when Wildbill would finally get in the win column! 

I remember him winning earlier this year

 

 

15 hours ago, JohnnY said:

for god's sake... 30th? i was in 12th with estimates

 

edit: ok, there was a mistake in my score, for some reason it was written "61" in my ghosbusters accuracy instead of the formula lol

 

i got 87.9%, which puts me in 13th

sounds like someone put a Bourne estimate in that cell

Edited August 1, 2016 by No Prisoners

[ChipDerby]

yay for being mediocre

[cannastop]

@AndyLL

 

Actuals:

July 29-31, 2016
Weekend

 

1	N	Jason Bourne	Uni.	$59,215,365	-	4,026	-	$14,708	$59,215,365	$120	1
2	1	Star Trek Beyond	Par.	$24,754,339	-58.2%	3,928	-	$6,302	$106,474,717	$185	2
3	N	Bad Moms	STX	$23,817,340	-	3,215	-	$7,408	$23,817,340	$20	1
4	2	The Secret Life of Pets	Uni.	$18,915,140	-36.1%	3,677	-371	$5,144	$296,882,885	$75	4
5	4	Ice Age: Collision Course	Fox	$10,988,839	-48.6%	3,997	+5	$2,749	$42,598,462	$105	2
6	3	Lights Out	WB (NL)	$10,803,331	-50.2%	2,835	+17	$3,811	$42,870,363	$4.9	2
7	5	Ghostbusters (2016)	Sony	$10,125,735	-51.8%	3,052	-911	$3,318	$106,497,206	$144	3
8	N	Nerve	LGF	$9,445,456	-	2,538	-	$3,722	$15,496,743	-	1
9	6	Finding Dory	BV	$4,322,747	-40.3%	1,733	-843	$2,494	$469,115,677	-	7
10	7	The Legend of Tarzan	WB	$2,467,018	-62.5%	1,503	-1,341	$1,641	$121,918,228	$180	5

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=main&yr=2016&wknd=31&p=.htm