Weekend Numbers: Fantastic Beasts 75M, Strange 17.6M, Trolls 17.5M, Arrival 11.8M, Edge of 17 4.8M, Bleed 2.35M, Billy Lynn 930k

[TalismanRing]

Even the specialty films didn't do as well as expected.  Manchester's projected PTA is lower than Billy Lynn's last w/e (though 4 instead of 2 theaters) and Moonlight had a poor expansion though with awards time coming up it has time to reverse course

 

Top 10 films per Friday night industry estimates for the weekend of Nov. 18-20:

1). Fantastic Beasts…  (WB), 4,144 theaters / $29.4M Fri. (includes $8.75M)/ 3-day cume: $72.8M /Wk 1

2.) Trolls  (DWA/20^th Century Fox), 3,945 theaters (-121) / $4M Fri. (-67%) / 3-day cume: $17.46M (-50%) /Total Cume: $116.1M/Wk 3

Doctor Strange  (DIS), 3,694 theaters (-188) / $4.96M Fri. (-67%)/ 3-day cume: $17.4M(-59%) /Total cume: $181.3M/Wk 3

4). Arrival  (PAR), 2,335 theaters (+18) / $3.35M Fri. (-64%) / 3-day cume: $11.3M (-53%)/Total:$42.9M/ Wk 2

5). Almost Christmas  (UNI), 2,379 theaters (+3) / $1.9M Fri. (-68%) / 3-day cume: $6.7M (-57%)/Total: $25M/ Wk 2

6). Hacksaw Ridge  (Lionsgate), 2,883 theaters (-88) / $1.92M Fri. (-49%) /$6.5M 3-day (-55%)/Total: $42.6M/ Wk 3

7.) The Edge of Seventeen (STX) 1,945 theaters/ $1.7M Fri./3-day: $5.3M/wk 1

8.) Bleed For This (OR) 1,549 theaters/ $783K Fri./3-day: $2.275M/wk 1

9.)The Accountant (WB), 1,423 theaters (-919) / $601K Fri. (-60%)/3-day cume: $2M (-55%) / Total cume: $81.1M / Wk 6

10.) Moonlight (A24) 650 theaters (+474) $373K Fri. (-12%)  3-day cume: $1.237M (-2%) / Total: $6.4M / Wk 5

 Shut In  (Euro), 2,006 theaters (-52)/ $428K (-70%) Fri. / 3-day cume: $1.235M (-66%)/Total: $5.6m/ Wk 2

Notables:

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (SONY) 1,176 theaters (+1,174) / $332K Fri. (+493M)/3-day cume: $1.1M (+1000%)/Total: $1.2M/ Wk 2

Nocturnal Animals  (FOC) 37 theaters/ $130K Fri./$11K PTA/3-day cume: $395k/ Wk 1

I Am Not Madame Bovary (WLGO) 39 theaters/ $60K Fri./$4,6K PTA/3-day cume: $182k/ Wk 1

Manchester by the Sea (AMZ/RSA) 4 theaters/ $60K Fri./$44K PTA/3-day cume: $176k/ Wk 1

[marveldcfox]

Boring numbers all around...

 

Maybe December will get exciting, but i have doubts..

[Fullbuster]

Just now, marveldcfox said:

Boring numbers all around...

 

Maybe December will get exciting, but i have doubts..

 

With Moana that could great great legs and Rogue One/Passengers I expect December to be great

[marveldcfox]

Boring numbers all around...

 

Maybe December will get exciting, but i have doubts..movies in November and December are good-excellent for most part...but boxoffice isn't all that...can we now fast forward to March already..

[baumer]

I'm curious about the math on hacksaw Ridge. If it fell 49% from last Friday which was Veterans Day, then why is it projected to fall 55% for the weekend? It's going to have a much better increase on Saturday than it did last weekend. I'm not saying that the number is wrong I'm just questioning how they came to it.

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

I'm curious about the math on hacksaw Ridge. If it fell 49% from last Friday which was Veterans Day, then why is it projected to fall 55% for the weekend? It's going to have a much better increase on Saturday than it did last weekend. I'm not saying that the number is wrong I'm just questioning how they came to it.

 

They screwed up.  Last weekend was $10,630,873. It looks like they were using it's ow for the 55% drop instead.   A $6.5m would mean a drop about 30%

[alisson23]

2ND UPDATE, 11:54 AM: Doctor Strange is on his way to an estimated $28.3 million-$29 million opening day (including $9.4M previews) and a weekend oflow- to mid-$70Ms according to industry sources.

 

I hope FB's friday increases too

 

Edit: that was not friday night report. The hope is over

 

Edited November 19, 2016 by alisson23

[Celedhring]

39 minutes ago, Finnick said:

DHD

 

6). Hacksaw Ridge  (Lionsgate), 2,883 theaters (-88) / $1.92M Fri. (-49%) /$6.5M 3-day (-55%)/Total: $42.6M/ Wk 3

 

 

This jumped at me, because it made no sense that Hacksaw dropped 55% for the weekend, off a 49% Friday drop (and coming from an inflated Veterans' Day Friday).

 

But then I realized that 6,5m is not a 55% drop from past weekend's total, it's a 39% drop. God, DHD is so sloppy. 

 

EDIT: I see others have noticed it already.

Edited November 19, 2016 by Celedhring

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, alisson23 said:

2ND UPDATE, 11:54 AM: Doctor Strange is on his way to an estimated $28.3 million-$29 million opening day (including $9.4M previews) and a weekend oflow- to mid-$70Ms according to industry sources.

 

I hope FB's friday increases too

 

The difference is Rth gave us the $29.5m number as well and if I recall correctly he had Strange at around $32m.

[Krissykins]

What an awful weekend.

 

Fantastic Beasts missing tracking ($75m), every holdover falling over 50% (poor Arrival) and the other new releases bombing. 

 

Although lol at Miles Teller, I think he's the worst. 

[alisson23]

8 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

The difference is Rth gave us the $29.5m number as well and if I recall correctly he had Strange at around $32m.

The final number wasn't $29.5M..... DS had a increase from the friday night report and I will hope the same to FB.

 

Edit: that was not friday night report. The hope is over.

Edited November 19, 2016 by alisson23

[terrestrial]

13 hours ago, yjs said:

isn't $15M a bit too low for DS? think I read it was on track to do low-20s

 

see TalismanRing's post on top of this page (47), now they adjusted to $17.4m

 

I think the 65% over 25y old for FB did cut deeper than hoped for DSs weekend (also skewing older a lot) plus last weekend was higher for Verteranxday

 

 

Edited November 19, 2016 by terrestrial
added 'for FB' + holiday

[MinaTakla]

Why did all holdovers fall over -50%? Strange, Trolls, Arrival, Almost Christmas and even the Accountant all fell -50% or more? Is it because last Fri was a holiday? 

ARRIVAL had the 2nd best drop after Trolls in the top 5 or top 10 it seems..so at least that's some consolation.

Edited November 19, 2016 by MinaTakla

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

This days old.  How did I not know this already?

Anime master Hayao Miyazaki is coming out of retirement to make one last film

 

http://www.theverge.com/2016/11/14/13621108/hayao-miyazaki-last-film-boro-the-caterpillar

OH MY GOD. How did I not know this? Miyazaki is cancelling the apocalypse and saving us all. 

[keysersoze123]

Strange should gross 225-230m.  Solid run. Trolls should finish around 180m. Good comeback for DWA.

[RyneOh1040]

2 hours ago, grey ghost said:

Looks like the tracking the days before Friday for 85-95 m were too optimistic.

 

Probably got inflated by ticket sales.

 

But I gotta wonder how big the Saturday and Sunday drop will be.

 

 

 

 

Pretty sure 75 is right where tracking was.  At least it was what THR had it at.

[MovieMan89]

33 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

Boring numbers all around...

 

Maybe December will get exciting, but i have doubts..

Only if you're excited by another animation juggernaut. 

[RyneOh1040]

I think all things considered this is a solid number.  It's a new franchise that sold itself solely on the wizarding world brand.  Clearly from the preview to full day number it didn't pull in a lot of the hardcore fans but maybe that's a good sign of things to come in terms of legs with this having less of a rush factor.  I think the quality of the film is there for WOM to kick in.  I haven't lost hope for 200 yet and I think if nothing else WB will be pleased with this to have full confidence going forward.

[keysersoze123]

55 minutes ago, James said:

It is a weekend estimate after not even having the Friday estimate. Ofc it is early. That is why weekend estimates are later in the weekend. What the hell man, it's like you are so blinded by your dislike for this for some reason that your forget it is barely Sat morning and this is Deadline we're talking about.

 

 

its a projection from friday number. Anyone can do it. It will increase 20% minus previews and 30-35% drop on sunday. So its not that hard. No hate. Just dont care. I will probably see it next week(team movie out at office). Was supposed to see this week but couple of folks could not make it. Will provide my review after that. 

 

I really loved potter books but never hooked on to movies.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, POTUS said:

Fugly all around

http://deadline.com/2016/11/fantastic-beasts-and-where-to-find-them-weekend-box-office-doctor-strange-bleed-for-this-1201856955/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3RD UPDATE, Friday 11:52 PM, Refresh for chart:Warner Bros.’  Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them is weaving an estimated $72.8M weekend that’s so strong, it’s taking the air out of the market for holdovers, and mowing down a slew of adult newcomers including STX Entertainment’s The Edge of Seventeen ($5.3M), Open Road’s Bleed For This ($2.3M) and Sony’s wide expansion ofBilly Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk ($1.1M) –

 

 

 

Did you overpredict big time this weekend Mr Potus. Grrr I must say I am annoyed by your name/avatar.