ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[FantasticBeasts]

Good drop for FB all things considered! 

[kitik]

A lot of ugly Friday-to-Friday drops for everything not named Moana.

[DAJK]

Rogue One is a spin off. Enough said. Really, it's just a placeholder film to keep people interested until Episode 8, and id say it did a pretty good job of that, giving us a 160M give or take opening weekend.

 

We also got a pretty good movie out of it to so there's that

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, kitik said:

A lot of ugly Friday-to-Friday drops for everything not named Moana.

 

 

 

[kswiston]

14 minutes ago, druv10 said:

Baumer's club is  pretty much done. RO's looking at 155-160M OW, 2.8-2.9 multi to beat the club which should be easy. 

 

I don't know the particulars of Baumer's club. 

 

The Force Awakens did 4.6x its true Fri-Sun total, plus the $57M from Thursday previews. (EDIT: 880M/191M + 57M)

 

If the goal is beating Finding Dory, Rogue One will need to make ~$486.5M domestic, or $457.5M outside of the Thursday previews. For convenience sake, let's say Rogue One ends up with a true Fri-Sun of $125M ($154M with previews). Beating Dory will require a 3.66x true Fri-Sun multiplier outside of Friday previews. Tons of room to be more frontloaded than TFA, and still come out on top. 

Edited December 17, 2016 by kswiston

[druv10]

11 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

I honestly don't think most people here truly get how big of an opening this is for R1. I know a lot of you expected it to do big numbers but for a film that really and truly is a spin-off these numbers are absolutely mind-blowing.

No question about it. It's a stunning opening!!! SW as a brand is unmatched in US and Canada. 

[That One Girl]

Fantastic for Moana and La La Land, good for Arrival, Trolls, Fantastic Beasts, Manchester and Doctor Strange.  Not good for Office Christmas Party and Nocturnal Animals, and RIP Allied/Miss Sloane.

Edited December 17, 2016 by That One Guy

[elcaballero]

Anecdote about the weather affecting legs: it has been snowing like crazy where I'm at and the showing I went to last night was less than half full.

[James]

Omg omg omg omg omg omg. I'm freaking out! Holy shit! I'm more excited for this and the next season than for any movie next year!

 

 

[kitik]

11 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

There is actually a video of a fuel truck sliding on the ice on I-95, flipping over the median and exploding.

 

 

I hate to say it, but: link?

[terrestrial]

11 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Expect weather to knock the numbers down a little, though that could lead to slightly better legs later. I'm thinking the low end of the projections (145-150) is more likely right now due to some rough weather with the winter storm tracking east.

There was a really bad incident in Baltimore this morning. 55 vehicle crash on I-95, multiple dead.

icing is the culprit. There is actually a video of a fuel truck sliding on the ice on I-95, flipping over the median and exploding.

Dulles Airport outside DC had to close this morning due to icing on the runways.

As warm air filters in from the South the ice/freezing rain in the Mid Atlantic should turn to just rain later today.

 

I would expect the weather to reduce attendance at the early day showings from Richmond up to NY. 

wow in a bad way. also about he dead and injured 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Yeah weather isn't good today. Could bode well for a nice hold tomorrow.

[terrestrial]

1 minute ago, kitik said:

I hate to say it, but: link?

 

OT = spoiler tags

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya  3m3 minutes ago

Oscar hopeful #LaLaLand expands to 200 thtrs FRI & jumps up to #6 nationwide w $1.4M. Wknd shd reach about $4.5M for strong $22k avg.

Edited December 17, 2016 by terrestrial

[Valonqar]

15 minutes ago, CJohn said:

MISS SLOANE LMAOOOOO

 

I usually don't root against movies but damn this bomb makes me so happy. Tweet about that, Chastain!

[FlashMaster659]

Weather looking good on the West Coast today

[druv10]

8 minutes ago, kswiston said:

 

I don't know the particulars of Baumer's club. 

 

The Force Awakens did 4.6x its true Fri-Sun total, plus the $57M from Thursday previews. (EDIT: 880M/191M + 57M)

 

If the goal is beating Finding Dory, Rogue One will need to make ~$486.5M domestic, or $457.5M outside of the Thursday previews. For convenience sake, let's say Rogue One ends up with a true Fri-Sun of $125M ($154M with previews). Beating Dory will require a 3.66x true Fri-Sun multiplier outside of Friday previews. Tons of room to be more frontloaded than TFA, and still come out on top. 

Baumer's club was O/U 450M, with this opening we're looking at 500M+.

[MattW]

Disney is going to give a steep Sunday drop, so the weekend estimate could be under 150, but I think actuals are very very likely be over. 

[kitik]

1 minute ago, Jayhawk said:

Yeah weather isn't good today. Could bode well for a nice hold tomorrow.

 

 

Toledo is supposed to have a high in the teens on Sunday, and drop down below zero on Sunday night and Monday morning.

That could bode for a horrible hold on Sunday and Monday.

[Hatebox]

I really have no idea what legs will be like for R1. It really didn't strike me as particularly kid-friendly, and I heard a lot of people grumbling as they left the theater. On the other hand, my Facebook friends are creaming themselves over it.

[RamblinRed]

12 minutes ago, kswiston said:

 

I don't know the particulars of Baumer's club. 

 

The Force Awakens did 4.6x its true Fri-Sun total, plus the $57M from Thursday previews. (EDIT: 880M/191M + 57M)

 

If the goal is beating Finding Dory, Rogue One will need to make ~$486.5M domestic, or $457.5M outside of the Thursday previews. For convenience sake, let's say Rogue One ends up with a true Fri-Sun of $125M ($154M with previews). Beating Dory will require a 3.66x true Fri-Sun multiplier outside of Friday previews. Tons of room to be more frontloaded than TFA, and still come out on top. 

Baumer's club was under 450 DOM.

I'm on record as out - though i thought 450 was a good number to set it at. My personal thought on R1 was 465-475. But 10% in either direction would not surprise me. 

Right now i think Baumer's club is less likely to make it than not, but I always believe wait until at least the 2nd weekend to make any sense of a movie to see what legs start to look like.