ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[terrestrial]

December 16-18, 2016 Weekend

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<<Last Weekend <Last Year	View Index: By Year | By Weekend
TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count /Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week # 1 N Rogue One: A Star Wars Story BV $155,091,681 - 4,157 - $37,309 $155,081,681 $200 1 2 1 Moana BV $12,726,232 -31.3% 3,587 -288 $3,548 $162,920,977 - 4 3 2 Office Christmas Party Par. $8,587,528 -49.2% 3,210 - $2,675 $31,655,795 $45 2 4 N Collateral Beauty WB (NL) $7,102,085 - 3,028 - $2,345 $7,102,085 $36 1 5 3 Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them WB $5,071,323 -51.3% 3,036 -590 $1,670 $207,722,418 $180 5 6 7 Manchester by the Sea RAtt. $4,244,014 +33.8% 1,208 +842 $3,513 $14,104,319 - 5 7 15 La La Land LG/S $4,102,091 +365.6% 200 +195 $20,510 $5,342,257 $30 2 8 4 Arrival Par. $2,972,958 -46.8% 2,157 -958 $1,378 $86,666,325 $47 6 9 5 Doctor Strange BV $2,210,912 -51.3% 1,930 -833 $1,146 $226,260,939 $165 7 10 8 Nocturnal Animals Focus $1,407,088 -55.5% 1,246 -16 $1,129 $8,828,454 - 5 11 9 Trolls Fox $1,370,880 -54.6% 1,714 -1,072 $800 $147,426,817 $125 7 12 6 Allied Par. $1,323,176 -66.6% 1,625 -1,393 $814 $38,532,093 $85 4 13 10 Hacksaw Ridge LGF $956,516 -58.2% 1,341 -936 $713 $62,854,620 - 7 14 12 Almost Christmas Uni. $608,555 -55.8% 720 -538 $845 $41,208,485 $17 6 15 20 Jackie FoxS $573,645 +16.5% 84 +58 $6,829 $1,616,380 - 3 16 11 Miss Sloane EC $448,555 -75.7% 1,463 -185 $307 $3,188,191 - 4 17 18 Moonlight (2016) A24 $378,081 -30.4% 305 -144 $1,240 $11,479,757 - 9 18 13 Bad Santa 2 BG $236,765 -80.8% 414 -1,620 $572 $17,544,512 $26 4 19 16 Loving Focus $217,182 -65.7% 396 -176 $548 $7,111,424 - 7

[DeeCee]

15 minutes ago, Chewy said:

So this whole weekend was the Movieman show, eh? No breaks?

My bladder is bursting. 

[NCsoft]

22 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

If i could only turn back time 15 years and wipe my memory to experience those 3 years again.... 

 

Sorry to R1 but FOTR, well, THAT was an event!  

Oh certainly FOTR would be much more of a worldwide event than RO.

Edited December 19, 2016 by NCsoft

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Ugh, I'm too busy to waste time digging through hundreds of posts right now, but rest assured I will get around to showing what started this nonsense. And it was him personally attacking me for telling him his numbers didn't confirm an OW in the Civil War range. And don't pretend he's some innocent bystander in our squabble this weekend. 9 times out of 10 he initiated it with his snark. Some of you have been so far up each other's asses this weekend your eyes are completely blinded by shit. 

 

Whether or not that's true, it takes two to tango.  "He started it" (whether he did or not) rarely worked on the school playground, and I've tended to find it doesn't fair much better elsewhere.

[JonathanLB]

19 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

Had this been released in the summer, pretty sure a $178M OW prediction would have been right on point

 

But then, the summer legs 

 

Under 400? 

 

Worse legs than Civil War's already atrocious legs? 

 

Well there's someone on another forum who thinks the "BEST case scenario" is barely beating Civil War. LOL at that.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

Whether or not that's true, it takes two to tango.  "He started it" (whether he did or not) rarely worked on the school playground, and I've tended to find it doesn't fair much better elsewhere.

Great, tell that to the posters who are trying to cherry pick through posts to make it sound like I attacked poor EC for no reason. Lol, what a bunch of children man. 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

December 16-18, 2016 Weekend

• Standard Chart
•  
• Studio Estimates
•  
• Screens & Showings
•  
• Studio

 

<<Last Weekend <Last Year	View Index: By Year | By Weekend
TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count /Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week # 1 N Rogue One: A Star Wars Story BV $155,091,681 - 4,157 - $37,309 $155,081,681 $200 1 2 1 Moana BV $12,726,232 -31.3% 3,587 -288 $3,548 $162,920,977 - 4 3 2 Office Christmas Party Par. $8,587,528 -49.2% 3,210 - $2,675 $31,655,795 $45 2 4 N Collateral Beauty WB (NL) $7,102,085 - 3,028 - $2,345 $7,102,085 $36 1 5 3 Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them WB $5,071,323 -51.3% 3,036 -590 $1,670 $207,722,418 $180 5 6 7 Manchester by the Sea RAtt. $4,244,014 +33.8% 1,208 +842 $3,513 $14,104,319 - 5 7 15 La La Land LG/S $4,102,091 +365.6% 200 +195 $20,510 $5,342,257 $30 2 8 4 Arrival Par. $2,972,958 -46.8% 2,157 -958 $1,378 $86,666,325 $47 6 9 5 Doctor Strange BV $2,210,912 -51.3% 1,930 -833 $1,146 $226,260,939 $165 7 10 8 Nocturnal Animals Focus $1,407,088 -55.5% 1,246 -16 $1,129 $8,828,454 - 5 11 9 Trolls Fox $1,370,880 -54.6% 1,714 -1,072 $800 $147,426,817 $125 7 12 6 Allied Par. $1,323,176 -66.6% 1,625 -1,393 $814 $38,532,093 $85 4 13 10 Hacksaw Ridge LGF $956,516 -58.2% 1,341 -936 $713 $62,854,620 - 7 14 12 Almost Christmas Uni. $608,555 -55.8% 720 -538 $845 $41,208,485 $17 6 15 20 Jackie FoxS $573,645 +16.5% 84 +58 $6,829 $1,616,380 - 3 16 11 Miss Sloane EC $448,555 -75.7% 1,463 -185 $307 $3,188,191 - 4 17 18 Moonlight (2016) A24 $378,081 -30.4% 305 -144 $1,240 $11,479,757 - 9 18 13 Bad Santa 2 BG $236,765 -80.8% 414 -1,620 $572 $17,544,512 $26 4 19 16 Loving Focus $217,182 -65.7% 396 -176 $548 $7,111,424 - 7

 

R1 looks to be slightly in error.  The actuals on its page has the 155.081 number, while this one has 155.091.  Adding them up, looks like it's this page which has the data entry wrong.

 

It'll be corrected soon enough I reckon, but I thot I would point it out before people here run with that number.

Edited December 19, 2016 by Porthos

[Jason]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Ugh, I'm too busy to waste time digging through hundreds of posts right now, but rest assured I will get around to showing what started this nonsense. And it was him personally attacking me for telling him his numbers didn't confirm an OW in the Civil War range.

 

Do you mean this conversation? His response wasn't a personal attack, it was a statement of fact. He said you made something up (which you did, whatever your intentions were), which pretty closely fits colloquial use of the word "lying". He didn't say you were generally a liar.

 

On 12/16/2016 at 8:55 PM, MovieMan89 said:

Why not say it? You already made it clear how this had 0% chance of not beating Civil War's OW, so maybe this # will prop that up for you. 

 

On 12/16/2016 at 8:58 PM, EmpireCity said:

Are you just going to lie and make things up at this point?  My prediction for Rogue One is under Civil War's opening weekend.  That is well documented on here. 

 

Edited December 19, 2016 by Jason

[terrestrial]

What I want to say:

 

holdovers!

 

I expected a way steeper drop for both FB and Doctor Strange, as both share age skewing and I think also overlapping fans with SW too

 

At The-Numbers.com is a graph for this

Quote

The shaded area represents the expected performance range for a film, based on its opening weekend box office. 95% of films fall within the shaded area. If a film trends towards the top end of the shaded area, it has good legs compared to the average film; if it trends towards the bottom end of the shaded area, it has poor legs. The predictive area is based on movies from the past 5 years.

 

Both films show no sign at all to have had anything impact their 'curves'

FB

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Fantastic-Beasts-and-Where-to-Find-Them#tab=box-office

 

DS

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Doctor-Strange-(2016)#tab=box-office

 

 

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

Do you mean this conversation? His response wasn't a personal attack, it was a statement of fact. He said you made something up (which you did, whatever your intentions were), which pretty closely fits colloquial use of the word "lying". He didn't say you were generally a liar.

 

 

 

Nope, talking about the point before all that where I made a prediction and he outright came in for the personal attack. Quite frankly I'm not sure if it happened in this thread, the tracking one, or Baumer's club but it was him that went off the deep end for no reason other than me giving predictions he didn't like. 

Edited December 19, 2016 by MovieMan89

[That One Girl]

58 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Chaos.

[RamblinRed]

8 minutes ago, B D Joe said:

I want Rogue One to beat Finding Dory.

 

That's highly likely at this point.

Someone earlier posted the Top December Box Office releases.

If you look at them. out of the Top 50 all time opening December weekends, only 3 failed to earn a multiple that would put R1 above 450 (Exodus:Gods and Kings, The Day the Earth Stood Still, and Golden Compass). I doubt R1 will perform similar to any of those movies level. Heck its going to make more in its first 7 days than those 3 films made combined in their runs.

 

only one other film in that Top 50 releases - Scream 2 - has a multiplier that would keep R1 below Dory (477 with S2 multiplier).

A fifth would have it be higher than Dory but fail to reach 500, that would be Ocean's 12 whose multiplier would get R1 to 497.3.

The other 45 movies all have multipliers that would have it cross 500 fairly easily and some get it to 600.

 

So if you want to base it on that Top 50 you could say it has a 94% chance of getting over 450, 92% chance of passing Dory and 90% chance of passing 500.

 

 

 

[RascarCapat]

17 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

 

Is there an average WW prediction for Rogue one (Total WW not OW)? despite all the cheering for its performance so far, I suspect average WW predictions on this forums will be largely over-predicted.

 

Here is what I have :

 

WW

stripe 1.5B

robertman2 1.5B

SWXII 1.5B

DAJK 1.48B

The Panda Knight 1.45B

junkshop36 1.4B

Biph Shmata 1.4B

Rallax 1.4B

DAR 1.4B

bapi 1.4B

grey ghost 1.375B

feasby007 1.314B

CoolEric258 1.3B

Jake Gittes 1.325B

Arlborn 1.3B

nilephelan 1.3B

Heretic 1.3B

Giesi 1.3B

Daxtreme 1.3B

MCKillswitch123 1.3 B

Marek the Jedi 1.297B

RascarCapat 1.27B

jb007 1.260B

Jayhawk 1.256B

Jay Hollywood 1.25B

Gokai Red 1.25B

Claudio 1.25B

Wrath 1.25B

RandomJC 1.13B

Truckasaurus 1.1B

Goffe 1.1B

Blankments 1.081B

Baumer 1.058B

TalismanRing 1.05B

Captain H 1.02B

angeldelmito 990M

Goffe 975M

Dexter of Suburbia 900M

The Futurist 900M

ecstasy 890M

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

Chaos.

 

See, this is why you are but the learner.

 

You should have responded with something like this:

 

 

Spoiler

Would have also been acceptable. 

 

[MovieMan89]

@Jason So my bad, what started him going in for the personal attack was me hating the film, and opinion I had every right to express:

 

Note before all this we had been disagreeing about numbers all week in the tracking thread and he had been smug about how wrong I was going to be, but I certainly never went in for any kind of personal attack on him until he devolved into a total asshole towards me about the situation. And no, I'm not claiming to be innocent of ignoring him, I indulged him and started hurling the attacks back.

Edited December 19, 2016 by MovieMan89

[Jason]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

@Jason So my bad, what started him going in for the personal attack was me hating the film, and opinion I had every right to express:

Note before all this we had been disagreeing about numbers all week in the tracking thread and he had been smug about how wrong I was going to be, but I certainly never went in for any kind of personal attack on him until he devolved into a total asshole towards me about the situation. 

 

Fair enough. My only point was that he hasn't been gloating about his OW prediction.

Edited December 19, 2016 by Jason

[NCsoft]

5 minutes ago, RascarCapat said:

 

Here is what I have :

 

WW

stripe 1.5B

robertman2 1.5B

SWXII 1.5B

DAJK 1.48B

The Panda Knight 1.45B

junkshop36 1.4B

Biph Shmata 1.4B

Rallax 1.4B

DAR 1.4B

bapi 1.4B

grey ghost 1.375B

feasby007 1.314B

CoolEric258 1.3B

Jake Gittes 1.325B

Arlborn 1.3B

nilephelan 1.3B

Heretic 1.3B

Giesi 1.3B

Daxtreme 1.3B

MCKillswitch123 1.3 B

Marek the Jedi 1.297B

RascarCapat 1.27B

jb007 1.260B

Jayhawk 1.256B

Jay Hollywood 1.25B

Gokai Red 1.25B

Claudio 1.25B

Wrath 1.25B

RandomJC 1.13B

Truckasaurus 1.1B

Goffe 1.1B

Blankments 1.081B

Baumer 1.058B

TalismanRing 1.05B

Captain H 1.02B

angeldelmito 990M

Goffe 975M

Dexter of Suburbia 900M

The Futurist 900M

ecstasy 890M

Thanks so much!

Just did a quite average, Average prediction is 1170M WW

It is not going to get there, but not too bad of an over-prediction I suppose

[WrathOfHan]

Arrival went up a lot from estimates  

[elcaballero]

I'm just excited that Moana's number went up. 

[cannastop]

Yay, everything did better than expected!

Also, shame on those who doubted Moana. Just talking out of your ass, saying that kids were seeing Rogue One instead.