ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[JonathanLB]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

 

   Because it was brought up and we're discussing numbers and projections from a source of data and this is a box office site? 
 

 

 

Huh? What you're saying makes no sense. Please re-read it. You're asking if AMC has a higher percentage of presales than other theaters but it's an irrelevant fact because we aren't comparing Rogue One's Regal presales to CWs AMC presales. We are comparing apples to apples, how well did these other blockbusters do at AMC and how well has Rogue One done? Rogue One has done much better.

 

Not too tough to understand here. If you're asking whether you can extrapolate the AMC number to every other chain accurately, well no, probably not but the relevant fact here is that Rogue One is predicted to open to $150M but is outperforming movies that opened much bigger. That's the reason many / most believe Disney is being conservative. 

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

 

Huh? What you're saying makes no sense. Please re-read it. You're asking if AMC has a higher percentage of presales than other theaters but it's an irrelevant fact because we aren't comparing Rogue One's Regal presales to CWs AMC presales. We are comparing apples to apples, how well did these other blockbusters do at AMC and how well has Rogue One done? Rogue One has done much better.

 

Not too tough to understand here. If you're asking whether you can extrapolate the AMC number to every other chain accurately, well no, probably not but the relevant fact here is that Rogue One is predicted to open to $150M but is outperforming movies that opened much bigger. That's the reason many / most believe Disney is being conservative. 

 

People were talking about it having $70m in pre-sales.  My point is that those numbers do not necessarily extrapolate 1 to 5 to a nationwide pre-sale numbers as shown by CW and BvS.

 

Opening higher is another matter. It depends how spread out the pre-sales are.  1/2 of TFA's were for non opening w/e and TFA's previews to opening w/e ratio was 4.36 a opposed to BvS 5.99 and CW 7.14.  So even if larger pre-sales convert to larger previews - say 35m that doesn't mean it will open higher than either of the other two films.  Though if it hits that then yes I think $150m+ is most likely.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 15, 2016 by TalismanRing

[Dementeleus]

Fandango puts out press releases seemingly on a whim. They don't do it regularly (even for blockbusters that might/should warrant it) and their comparisons are frequently so off base as to be pointless. So while it would be nice to get some sort of announcement, we might have to do without. There also seems to be less interest in a movie coming in under its record-setting predecessor. So while TFA got the huzzahs (and justifiably) for being the first movie to crack the 100m presale barrier, and to crush the old records doing it, the only people who care about an announcement that R1 is doing 50%/60%/whatever of TFA's presales are us.

[JonathanLB]

I understand what you're saying but it's all of the data we have at present. I mean for all we know in this case AMC underperformed lol who knows. I can tell you Regal is the destination for the true fans - the Ultimate Pass was $100,000 in sales right there

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

Fandango puts out press releases seemingly on a whim. They don't do it regularly (even for blockbusters that might/should warrant it) and their comparisons are frequently so off base as to be pointless. So while it would be nice to get some sort of announcement, we might have to do without. There also seems to be less interest in a movie coming in under its record-setting predecessor. So while TFA got the huzzahs (and justifiably) for being the first movie to crack the 100m presale barrier, and to crush the old records doing it, the only people who care about an announcement that R1 is doing 50%/60%/whatever of TFA's presales are us.

 

Disney sure doesn't want to put that number out there, even though it's a wonderful number compared to everything other than TFA.

[Dementeleus]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Disney sure doesn't want to put that number out there, even though it's a wonderful number compared to everything other than TFA.

 

Disney is perfectly happy to float their 130-150m prediction out there and then look pleasantly surprised on Sunday.  

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

 

Disney is perfectly happy to float their 130-150m prediction out there and then look pleasantly surprised on Sunday.  

Age of Non Eventron. 

[MattW]

10 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

People were talking about it having $70m in pre-sales.  My point is that those numbers do not necessarily extrapolate 1 to 5 to a nationwide pre-sale numbers as shown by CW and BvS.

 

Opening higher is another matter. It depends how spread out the pre-sales are.  1/2 of TFA's were for non opening w/e and TFA's previews to opening w/e ratio was 4.36 a opposed to BvS 5.99 and CW 7.14.  So even if larger pre-sales convert to larger previews - say 35m that doesn't mean it will open higher than either of the other two films.  Though if it hits that then yes I think $150m+ is most likely.

3

With more and more reserved seating I think it probably does mean Civil War and BvS had higher presales than the previous record holder, which when TFA came out which was Harry Potter 8 with $45m (Fandango says Hunger Games was its biggest preseller before TFA tho).  BvS's $8.9m would actually put it right at the same level as HPDH2, and 166 isn't far off from 169.

 

Of course we are all speculating on this and that and trying to glean as much as we can from the few puzzle pieces we have, so I appreciate the points you're bringing up.

[JonathanLB]

Yeah that's exactly right - we have very few puzzle pieces. Just enough to get some idea but to argue over how much is possible  lol

[The Futurist]

All Force Awakens domestic  numbers will only be beaten in 15 years or so by inflation.

 

Let that sink in.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

All Force Awakens domestic  numbers will only be beaten in 15 years or so by inflation.

 

Let that sink in.

I have no opinion at all on when TFA's DOM haul can go down. Maybe longer than 15 years. 

[DeeCee]

This is The Event. 

 

 

[kitik]

19 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

All Force Awakens domestic  numbers will only be beaten in 15 years or so by inflation.

 

Let that sink in.

 

Might not take that long.

Episodes 8 and 9 are coming soon.

 

Heck, Avatar 2 is going to have the widest range of predictions in forever.  Logically its going to drop, but never bet against Cameron. I'm expecting a visual spectacle that will blow the original Avatar away.

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

This is The Event. 

 

R1's Not The Event, It's  a Very Naughty Film:

 

 

[Daxtreme]

Can't wait for numbers tomorrow. Official Presales, AMC (rallax), fandango Pulse, Australian numbers...! 

 

And last but not least, the godly RTH early numbers, which we might have to sacrifice a few forum members for. Sacrifices have to be made --

 

BRING 'EM ON 

[James]

According to RTH in the Australia thread:

Quote

 

I literally have no time atm

 

R1 basically doing about  1/2 of TFA see how end of day shapes up.

 

So if all the talk about Australia being a good indicator for the US is real...

[The Futurist]

120M OW incoming.

 

Brace Yourselves.

[JonathanLB]

10 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

Can't wait for numbers tomorrow. Official Presales, AMC (rallax), fandango Pulse, Australian numbers...! 

 

And last but not least, the godly RTH early numbers, which we might have to sacrifice a few forum members for. Sacrifices have to be made --

 

BRING 'EM ON 

 

I'll be on the chopping block if it means Rth numbers. Lol jk

[EmpireCity]

I am putting this in every Rogue One thread.  

 

Saw it finally.  It is great.  So fucking great.  Brutal.  Thrilling.  Huge cheer at the end.  I loved it.  I acknowledge it is servicing the 8 year old boy in me that used to play with my 12 year old brother in the back yard imaging things that I saw tonight.  They gave me everything I ever wanted or imagined in a Star Wars movie.  So fucking brutal as well.  
 
Call me a fan boy, don't give a flying fuck.  I was entertained on every level.  Bravo to everyone involved.  Bravo to George Lucas for having the decency to allow others to play in the sandbox and make great Star Wars films.  

[terrestrial]

that (IMHO strange) newswhistle website ERC likes to link to has this weekend prediction:

http://newswhistle.com/movie-news-who-joined-the-wrong-rebellion-this-weekend/

 

WEEKEND ESTIMATES

1. Rogue One – $168M
2. Moana – $11M
3. Collateral Beauty – $10M
4. Office Christmas Party – $9M
5. La La Land – $7M