Weekend Thread...Friday numbers (Deadline) HF: 6M| BBM: 5M| PD: 4.2| LLL: 3.97 (PG 18) - NOT THE PIRACY THREAD (OR THE POLITICS THREAD)

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

No, it has to do with gross minimums.  Live By Night also went through the same thing.  

They underperformed that badly, heh? 

[filmlover]

Live by Night is getting cut down to 2 shows a day at most theaters around me this weekend. The theater drop the weekend after will be ugly.

[DAJK]

14 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

No, it has to do with gross minimums.  Live By Night also went through the same thing.  

So it had to do a certain number for the 2 week rule to come into play?

[Poseidon]

1 hour ago, m3racer123 said:

Moana

Walt Disney

$1,793,474

+13%

1,847

$971

$233,410,870

55

 

Even WOWer!

 

Actually, that's expected. Hidden Figures is indeed extraordinary. 

 

BTW: What happend to the other WB-Releases. No numbers other than for Live by Night? 

Edited January 17, 2017 by Poseidon

[Jake Gittes]

1	1	Hidden Figures	Fox	$27,506,839	+20.6%	3,286	+815	$8,371	$61,889,939	$25	4
2	3	Sing	Uni.	$19,025,360	-8.1%	3,693	-262	$5,152	$238,240,880	$75	4
3	5	La La Land	LG/S	$17,717,720	+74.9%	1,848	+333	$9,588	$77,299,289	$30	6
4	2	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	BV	$16,806,712	-23.8%	3,162	-995	$5,315	$501,898,446	$200	5
5	N	The Bye Bye Man	STX	$15,204,094	-	2,220	-	$6,849	$15,204,094	$7.4	1
6	N	Monster Trucks	Par.	$14,174,039	-	3,119	-	$4,544	$14,174,039	-	1
7	30	Patriots Day	LGF	$13,753,384	+13,023.1%	3,120	+3,113	$4,408	$14,677,466	$45	4
8	N	Sleepless	ORF	$9,771,305	-	1,803	-	$5,419	$9,771,305	-	1
9	4	Underworld: Blood Wars	SGem	$7,263,585	-46.9%	3,070	-	$2,366	$25,379,703	$35	2
10	6	Passengers (2016)	Sony	$6,491,814	-26.4%	2,447	-953	$2,653	$90,871,545	$110	4
11	8	Moana	BV	$6,104,745	-4.4%	1,847	-702	$3,305	$233,410,870	-	8
12	43	Live By Night	WB	$6,015,000	+22,242.3%	2,822	+2,818	$2,131	$6,200,644	-	4
13	7	Why Him?	Fox	$4,175,449	-39.5%	1,977	-927	$2,112	$56,008,496	$38	4
14	9	Fences	Par.	$3,513,003	-27.0%	1,342	-1,026	$2,618	$46,645,365	$24	5
15	13	Lion	Wein.	$2,772,941	+33.7%	575	-25	$4,823	$13,815,545	-	8
16	20	Silence (2016)	Par.	$2,374,886	+392.7%	474	+423	$5,010	$3,456,650	-	4
17	11	Manchester by the Sea	RAtt.	$2,054,178	-18.4%	726	-331	$2,829	$37,215,956	-	9
18	10	Assassin's Creed	Fox	$1,658,469	-60.3%	968	-1,674	$1,713	$53,162,110	$125	4
19	22	Moonlight (2016)	A24	$1,363,803	+324.0%	582	+447	$2,343	$14,862,563	-	13
20	16	Jackie	FoxS	$905,101	-13.7%	353	-	$2,564	$10,658,190	-	7
21	12	A Monster Calls	Focus	$729,158	-64.9%	1,513	-10	$482	$3,552,786	-	4
22	17	Arrival	Par.	$670,164	-22.6%	247	-134	$2,713	$95,190,744	$47	10
23	21	Trolls	Fox	$567,771	+28.9%	262	-70	$2,167	$151,970,462	$125	11
24	18	Dangal	UTV	$456,693	-43.4%	95	-142	$4,807	$11,927,378	-	4
25	26	20th Century Women	A24	$387,149	+196.7%	29	+19	$13,350	$830,797	-	3
26	37	Elle	SPC	$325,456	+560.9%	209	+173	$1,557	$1,389,814	-	10

[Eevin]

I picked a pretty good weekend to leave, then. You know it's January when the Bye Bye Man is the weekend's best new opener.

Still, terrific for Hidden Figures. Is it too early for me to call victory on my $100m club yet?

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Eevin said:

I picked a pretty good weekend to leave, then. You know it's January when the Bye Bye Man is the weekend's best new opener.

Still, terrific for Hidden Figures. Is it too early for me to call victory on my $100m club yet?

It's guaranteed at this point so no, brag away!

[trifle]

 

2 hours ago, Alli said:

Passengers 1.5M ahead of Dragon Tattoo

 

 

47 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

1	1	Hidden Figures	Fox	$27,506,839	+20.6%	3,286	+815	$8,371	$61,889,939	$25	4
2	3	Sing	Uni.	$19,025,360	-8.1%	3,693	-262	$5,152	$238,240,880	$75	4
3	5	La La Land	LG/S	$17,717,720	+74.9%	1,848	+333	$9,588	$77,299,289	$30	6
4	2	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	BV	$16,806,712	-23.8%	3,162	-995	$5,315	$501,898,446	$200	5
5	N	The Bye Bye Man	STX	$15,204,094	-	2,220	-	$6,849	$15,204,094	$7.4	1
6	N	Monster Trucks	Par.	$14,174,039	-	3,119	-	$4,544	$14,174,039	-	1
7	30	Patriots Day	LGF	$13,753,384	+13,023.1%	3,120	+3,113	$4,408	$14,677,466	$45	4
8	N	Sleepless	ORF	$9,771,305	-	1,803	-	$5,419	$9,771,305	-	1
9	4	Underworld: Blood Wars	SGem	$7,263,585	-46.9%	3,070	-	$2,366	$25,379,703	$35	2
10	6	Passengers (2016)	Sony	$6,491,814	-26.4%	2,447	-953	$2,653	$90,871,545	$110	4
11	8	Moana	BV	$6,104,745	-4.4%	1,847	-702	$3,305	$233,410,870	-	8
12	43	Live By Night	WB	$6,015,000	+22,242.3%	2,822	+2,818	$2,131	$6,200,644	-	4
13	7	Why Him?	Fox	$4,175,449	-39.5%	1,977	-927	$2,112	$56,008,496	$38	4
14	9	Fences	Par.	$3,513,003	-27.0%	1,342	-1,026	$2,618	$46,645,365	$24	5
15	13	Lion	Wein.	$2,772,941	+33.7%	575	-25	$4,823	$13,815,545	-	8
16	20	Silence (2016)	Par.	$2,374,886	+392.7%	474	+423	$5,010	$3,456,650	-	4
17	11	Manchester by the Sea	RAtt.	$2,054,178	-18.4%	726	-331	$2,829	$37,215,956	-	9
18	10	Assassin's Creed	Fox	$1,658,469	-60.3%	968	-1,674	$1,713	$53,162,110	$125	4
19	22	Moonlight (2016)	A24	$1,363,803	+324.0%	582	+447	$2,343	$14,862,563	-	13
20	16	Jackie	FoxS	$905,101	-13.7%	353	-	$2,564	$10,658,190	-	7
21	12	A Monster Calls	Focus	$729,158	-64.9%	1,513	-10	$482	$3,552,786	-	4
22	17	Arrival	Par.	$670,164	-22.6%	247	-134	$2,713	$95,190,744	$47	10
23	21	Trolls	Fox	$567,771	+28.9%	262	-70	$2,167	$151,970,462	$125	11
24	18	Dangal	UTV	$456,693	-43.4%	95	-142	$4,807	$11,927,378	-	4
25	26	20th Century Women	A24	$387,149	+196.7%	29	+19	$13,350	$830,797	-	3
26	37	Elle	SPC	$325,456	+560.9%	209	+173	$1,557	$1,389,814	-	10

 

and holding really well, and in the number 10 slot NOT the 11 slot projected for the weekend.    Even so, congratulations on your club.  I didn't expect to be sweating it down to the wire.

[John Marston]

Yeah Blade Runner is fucked by opening the same day as Kingsman though  Kingsman could move to

Fenruary 2018 to get a similar release as the first 

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Fenruary 2018 to get a similar release as the first 

 

Sure but that might be too long of a wait between sequels.  Moving it up to the first weekend of August would be preferable.

[IronJimbo]

Anyone got any of those precise estimates for R1's finishing OS and Dom?

[John Marston]

15 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Anyone got any of those precise estimates for R1's finishing OS and Dom?

 

 

550 domestic and 510-520 or so overseas

Edited January 18, 2017 by John Marston

[YM!]

25 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Yeah Blade Runner is fucked by opening the same day as Kingsman though  Kingsman could move to

Fenruary 2018 to get a similar release as the first 

It'd get eaten alive unfortunately, it's better of in August 2017 or possibly September 2017

[TommyA10]

38 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

550 domestic and 510-520 or so overseas

I don't know where you see RO getting another $50 million from domestically. It's been losing ground relative to TFA every week and is likely heading for a $7-8 million weekend. $530s is probably the highest it can go...

[John Marston]

29 minutes ago, TommyA10 said:

I don't know where you see RO getting another $50 million from domestically. It's been losing ground relative to TFA every week and is likely heading for a $7-8 million weekend. $530s is probably the highest it can go...

 

 

Guess you're right 

[JonathanLB]

1 hour ago, TommyA10 said:

I don't know where you see RO getting another $50 million from domestically. It's been losing ground relative to TFA every week and is likely heading for a $7-8 million weekend. $530s is probably the highest it can go...

 

How do you figure? I'd love to see that math. When TFA had a $14M weekend, it went on to make $57M more after that. And Rogue One just had about a $14M weekend, and you have it making... $28M more total? So half of what TFA made, actually less, on the same weekend? I really don't see that, and I don't think you do either.

 

I think there's understanding the box office in general, and understanding how films perform at the end of their runs. In general people lowball the end of run total because they apply simple math to it that doesn't work out, since movies slow their declines in general as the numbers are smaller, then add discount theaters, and continue to hang around well past when you would assume they'd be gone. 

 

Also, when you don't know something, please just say you don't know. Don't call out another poster and then when it turns out, gee, looking at the facts, you're TOTALLY WRONG. Funny huh? Did you actually look at any numbers when you spouted off what you wrote, or you just kind of pulled it out of thin air?

 

Here is TFA on the same weekend:

3-day: -37.8%

4-day: -22%

 

Rogue One:

3-day: -39%

4-day: -23.8%

 

Or how about the weekend before:

TFA -53.1%, Rogue One -55.5%

 

Gee you're totally right, they are COMPLETELY DIFFERENT, how could I be so stupid? Looks like Rogue One and TFA aren't performing similarly at all, because you know, within 2% is just so crazy. 

 

So again, I'm going to ask you, please show me the numbers and please show me how you think Rogue One is going to make $28M more and that's it, when TFA made about $57M falling off a weekend of the same size.  

Edited January 18, 2017 by JonathanLB

[redfirebird2008]

1 hour ago, TommyA10 said:

I don't know where you see RO getting another $50 million from domestically. It's been losing ground relative to TFA every week and is likely heading for a $7-8 million weekend. $530s is probably the highest it can go...

 

540-545

[redfirebird2008]

13 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

 

How do you figure? I'd love to see that math. When TFA had a $14M weekend, it went on to make $57M more after that. And Rogue One just had about a $14M weekend, and you have it making... $28M more total? So half of what TFA made, actually less, on the same weekend? I really don't see that, and I don't think you do either.

 

I think there's understanding the box office in general, and understanding how films perform at the end of their runs. In general people lowball the end of run total because they apply simple math to it that doesn't work out, since movies slow their declines in general as the numbers are smaller, then add discount theaters, and continue to hang around well past when you would assume they'd be gone. 

 

Also, when you don't know something, please just say you don't know. Don't call out another poster and then when it turns out, gee, looking at the facts, you're TOTALLY WRONG. Funny huh? Did you actually look at any numbers when you spouted off what you wrote, or you just kind of pulled it out of thin air?

 

Here is TFA on the same weekend:

3-day: -37.8%

4-day: -22%

 

Rogue One:

3-day: -39%

4-day: -23.8%

 

Or how about the weekend before:

TFA -53.1%, Rogue One -55.5%

 

Gee you're totally right, they are COMPLETELY DIFFERENT, how could I be so stupid? Looks like Rogue One and TFA aren't performing similarly at all, because you know, within 2% is just so crazy. 

 

So again, I'm going to ask you, please show me the numbers and please show me how you think Rogue One is going to make $28M more and that's it, when TFA made about $57M falling off a weekend of the same size.  

 

To be fair, you just compared a holiday-inflated weekend for Rogue One with a random weekend for TFA. Holiday-inflated weekends have worse legs. The better comparison to make is day-to-day. Rogue One is currently running at 50% of TFA's daily numbers. If that continues for the rest of its run, it will finish right at $540m. 

[JonathanLB]

15 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

To be fair, you just compared a holiday-inflated weekend for Rogue One with a random weekend for TFA. Holiday-inflated weekends have worse legs. The better comparison to make is day-to-day. Rogue One is currently running at 50% of TFA's daily numbers. If that continues for the rest of its run, it will finish right at $540m. 

 

That's correct, and true, but I fully agree with you, $540M to $545M looks right. I am just saying there is no way in hell it finishes with $530M. It's not going to happen. Worst case scenario would maybe be as low as $535M, I mean anything is possible if we're talking worst case scenario, but a gross right in the $540s looks most likely. I think hitting $550M is either unlikely or borderline impossible without an unforeseen event.

 

Deadline referenced industry sources saying Rogue One could return to IMAX for a week after xXx opens, and if that isn't complete bullshit, maybe if they push "One Last Week in IMAX" or something it could add a few million bucks. I have no idea. I don't see Disney as into many gimmicks -- which I wish they were (lol) -- because if I was president of Disney I'd show people what greed really looks like. We'd have it all mapped out, it would be beautiful. I'd find a nice little window where I could throw Rogue One back into IMAX for a week with the first teaser for Episode VIII and watch the dollars roll in. I would have a two-week special engagement ready to go for The Force Awakens in late November / early December when the box office goes dormant between holiday periods and we'd be soaking up money while waiting for 8 to roll out. It'd be glorious. And if anyone asked, I'm just giving the fans what they want. Fans want to see these movies on the big screen, and we're providing an opportunity to do so.

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

 

That's correct, and true, but I fully agree with you, $540M to $545M looks right. I am just saying there is no way in hell it finishes with $530M. It's not going to happen. Worst case scenario would maybe be as low as $535M, I mean anything is possible if we're talking worst case scenario, but a gross right in the $540s looks most likely. I think hitting $550M is either unlikely or borderline impossible without an unforeseen event.

 

Deadline referenced industry sources saying Rogue One could return to IMAX for a week after xXx opens, and if that isn't complete bullshit, maybe if they push "One Last Week in IMAX" or something it could add a few million bucks. I have no idea. I don't see Disney as into many gimmicks -- which I wish they were (lol) -- because if I was president of Disney I'd show people what greed really looks like. We'd have it all mapped out, it would be beautiful. I'd find a nice little window where I could throw Rogue One back into IMAX for a week with the first teaser for Episode VIII and watch the dollars roll in. I would have a two-week special engagement ready to go for The Force Awakens in late November / early December when the box office goes dormant between holiday periods and we'd be soaking up money while waiting for 8 to roll out. It'd be glorious. And if anyone asked, I'm just giving the fans what they want. Fans want to see these movies on the big screen, and we're providing an opportunity to do so.

Resident Evil is getting IMAX after xXx, and La La Land has been rumored to take it again before Lego Batman. Rogue One will be gone from pretty much every IMAX in a couple days.