Best Picture predictions-2017!

[Rorschach]

6 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

no.

[aabattery]

Edited September 16, 2017 by aabattery
is this referring to mother!'s oscar chances or wrathofhan? one to think about

[WrathOfHan]

13 minutes ago, aabattery said:

Why not both?

[That One Girl]

14 minutes ago, aabattery said:

is this referring to mother!'s oscar chances or wrathofhan? one to think about

 

#esoteric

[Ezen Baklattan]

Three Billboards took the top prize at TIFF. Its chances shot way up.

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, spaghetti! said:

Three Billboards took the top prize at TIFF. Its chances shot way up.

 

This doesn't put an end to shit you fucking retard, this is just the fucking start. why don't you put that on your good morning Missouri fucking wake-up broadcast, bitch?

[WrathOfHan]

Three Billboards is 6th at worst right now.

[That One Girl]

Also FWIW I, Tonya won runner-up and Call Me by Your Name came in 3rd.

[WrathOfHan]

It'd be fucking insane if Three Billboards won Picture/Actress/Supporting Actor/Screenplay with a few other nominations  

[That One Girl]

Being 100% honest I have Lady Bird winning rn unless The Post is Schindler's List/Saving Private Ryan level good.

[WrathOfHan]

TIFF audience award history in the past 5 years:

 

2016: La La Land, Lion, Queen of Katwe

2015: Room, Angry Indian Goddess, Spotlight

2014: The Imitation Game, Learning to Drive, St Vincent

2013: 12 Years a Slave, Philomena, Prisoners

2012: Silver Linings Playbook, Argo, Zaytoun 

[That One Girl]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

TIFF audience award history in the past 5 years:

 

2016: La La Land, Lion, Queen of Katwe

2015: Room, Angry Indian Goddess, Spotlight

2014: The Imitation Game, Learning to Drive, St Vincent

2013: 12 Years a Slave, Philomena, Prisoners

2012: Silver Linings Playbook, Argo, Zaytoun 

 

so I guess that means 2 of the 3 will be nominated.  RIP I, Tonya

[Jake Gittes]

still thinking either Shape of Water or Call Me by Your Name wins. (Chalk it up to failure of imagination if you want I guess because they're sorta kinda this year's LLL and Moonlight respectively).

[CoolioD1]

Good for searchlight especially after last year where they placed all their bets on that whiff birth of a nation and then even jackie underperformed a little. i think that was the first year in ages where they didn't have a picture nominee. now shape and billboard seem like locks and maybe even frontrunners.

[filmlover]

I, Tonya getting second spot is great too. FWIW my current Actress line-up is Hawkins/McDormand/Robbie/Streep/Winslet with Chastain and Ronan as potential spoilers.

[Eric the Ape]

The major three fall festivals have all wrapped up, and painted a better picture of the Oscar landscape. What really makes the race interesting is how, Best Actor and Supporting Actress aside, there's no clear frontrunner or obvious contender. Last year, all the attention from the fests were on La La Land and to a lesser extent Moonlight. The year before created a giant frontrunner with Spotlight. This year? I can't think of an obvious winner for a good chunk of the major awards, especially Best Picture, and we still don't know how Last Flag Flying, Wonder Wheel, The Post, or The Phantom Thread will factor into the competition.

 

I'm basically gonna copy what Clay did a couple weeks ago, and analyze each film that has been seen already and its chances and see where they land for the above-the-line categories. If I didn't list a movie, assume that I think it's dead.

 

Battle of the Sexes: The movie has solid reviews and everyone has raved about Emma Stone. The real hurdle the movie will have to face is its September release date, and Fox Searchlight having two frontrunners. It definitely won't get Best Picture, and I'm a little shaky about Best Actress, but it'll rack up a few noms at the Globes

 

Big Sick: Will definitely rack up a few noms at the Globes, and maybe even an Original Screenplay nod at the Oscars. Holly Hunter also seems likely to get into Supporting Actress. Maybe Best Picture, but Amazon's other movies would probably have to bomb in order for that to happen.

 

Breathe: Maybe Garfield gets a nom on account of how awful Best Actor is, but that's really about it.

 

Call Me By Your Name: Picture and Adapted Screenplay are locks. No question about that. Timothee Chalamet is 90% guaranteed to get in, and Director also has a great shot. Supporting Actor is the more interesting one. A lot of people think Michael Stuhlbarg will get in over Armie Hammer, which I don't really get. Hammer has more material and is more important to the story, so it makes more sense, to me at least, he would get the nom. But of course, I haven't seen the movie, so maybe Stuhlbarg really is a scene stealer.

 

Darkest Hour: Oldman's winning this. It's basically like J.K. Simmons in Whiplash. Nobody else comes close to his buzz. Picture is also a lock, as is likely Director and Screenplay (Don't know if it's adapted or original)

 

Disaster Artist: James Franco has been praised for his portrayal as Tommy Wiseau, making him a lock for Best Actor. Sadly, A24 will probably put their money on Lady Bird and Florida Project, so a Best Picture nom is unlikely.

 

Downsizing: As time goes on, the underwhelming "mehness" from most critics and fest-goers, have moved this from contender to a dud. Picture, Director and Screenplay are out, as I doubt Payne has the clout to make that happen. But I still think there's a decent shot Hong Chau could get in. Yes there have been a lot of complaints about her stereotypical character, but the Supporting Actress race is weak. There's three major frontrunners (Janney, Metcalf, Spencer), a likely contender with Hunter, and...not really much else. Maybe Juno Temple will surprise us with Wonder Wheel, maybe Kristin Scott Thomas gets in due to the weak competition, maybe Brooklyn Prince is frauded into supporting, but the pickings are slim, and there seems to be enough passion with Chau's performance she gets sneaked in there. I'm sure I'll be wrong, but I think Chau could still get in there somehow.

 

Dunkirk: Picture and Director? Locks. That's about it though, outside of the technicals.

 

Florida Project: DaFoe? In. Picture? I think A24's #1 will be Lady Bird, since Ronan's joint is more accessible.

 

Get Out: I think this will still get into Best Picture. Not as confident as before, but I can see a lot of Academy voters being passionate towards the film. Original Screenplay is also very likely.

 

I, Tonya: Janney's a lock, possibly for the win. Margot Robbie could get in, but the race is super competitive at the moment and it's hard to pick something.. I think there's an outside chance it could also nab Best Picture, but I don't trust Neon on handling the top prize.

 

Lady Bird: A24's #1 contender. Picture is super likely, and Laurie Metcalf is a lock. I'm not gung-ho on Ronan, because of how competitive the race is, but I wouldn't be shocked if she got in the top 5.

 

Molly's Game: Jessica Chastain is like Ronan and Robbie, where she might not be a total lock, but she's somewhere in the top 7 or 8. Screenplay nom is an obvious one.

 

Roman J. Israel, Esq.: Controversial pick, but I think there's a possibility Denzel might sneak his way into Best Actor. He's beloved by voters, the Best Actor race is super weak, and even the negative reviews praise his work, especially for him playing against type. One could even argue Academy voters don't want a completely white Lead Actor/Actress lineup, and since he's the only real person of color that's a contender for the title...I know I sound crazy, but there's still some decent factors in his favor that I don't want to write him out completely, although I will admit, he isn't in my top 5 at the moment. But if Cranston/Carrell/Day-Lewis/Hanks go down, Denzel might be in there.

 

The Shape of Water: The whole shebang. Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor (Shannon), Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay. Don't know if it will get a win, but it's secured nominations in all categories.

 

Stronger: Gyllenhall might sneak in there, bc Best Actor race is weak, not completely confident, yadda yadda yadda

 

Three Billboards: Its TIFF Audience win secures another whole shebang for Searchlight. Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay. Don't know if it'll win, but the TIFF love definitely shakes the game and turned everything around.

 

Now, my predictions.

 

Best Picture

Call Me By Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Get Out

Lady Bird

Last Flag Flying

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards

ALT: Wonder Wheel

 

Winner: Um...I guess The Post? Truth be told, all of the contenders have severe advantages and disadvantages that make this a real crapshoot, although the top 4 will probably be some combination of CMBYN, Dunkirk, Post, and Shape of Water.

 

Best Director:

Guillermo Del Toro

Luca Guadiningo

Martin McDonagh

Christopher Nolan

Steven Spielberg

ALT: Joe Wright

 

Winner: Split between Del Toro and Nolan, but gun to my head, I'll choose Del Toro.

 

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet

Bryan Cranston/Steve Carell

Daniel Day-Lewis

Tom Hanks

Gary Oldman

ALT: Jake Gyllenhaal

 

Winner: Gary Oldman. No doubt about it.

 

Best Actress

Sally Hawkins

Frances McDormand

Margot Robbie

Meryl Streep

Kate Winslet

ALT: Saorise Ronan

 

Winner: Umm...Streep? It's basically her, Winslet, or Hawkins.

 

Best Supporting Actor:

Willem DaFoe

Laurence Fishburne

Armie Hammer

Sam Rockwell

Michael Shannon

ALT: Michael Stuhlbarg

 

Winner: Probably Rockwell. I dunno.

 

Best Supporting Actress:

Hong Chau

Holly Hunter

Allison Janney

Laurie Metcalf

Octavia Spencer

ALT: Kristen Scott Thomas

 

Winner: Janney. No contest.

 

Best Original Screenplay:

The Big Sick

Darkest Hour (Is it original?)

Get Out

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards

ALT: Wonder Wheel

 

Winner: Three Billboards I guess.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Call Me By Your Name

The Disaster Artist

Last Flag Flying

Molly's Game

The Post

ALT: Mudbound

 

Winner: The Post.

[filmlover]

I could see a case being made for Hammer getting in and Stuhlbarg being left out (the former is gonna be much more visible on the campaign trail and in promoting the film - he and Chalamet are currently gracing separate covers for the newest issue of GQ Style, for instance), but I don't think it's gonna happen. FWIW my current predictions for Supporting Actor have both of them in.

[WrathOfHan]

tbh there's a chance Stuhlbarg and Hammer split votes and neither is in with how competitive the category is.

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

tbh there's a chance Stuhlbarg and Hammer split votes and neither is in with how competitive the category is.

The only ones I really see as "locked" in any capacity at the moment are Dafoe, Rockwell, and Stuhlbarg. I could see Shannon and Jenkins splitting votes for their movie as well and neither gets in (Shannon is clearly liked in the industry but his nomination last year came after he barely missed the year before). We still need to see if Last Flag Flying is gonna be a contender for any of its actors. Mendelsohn seems like a classic coattail nom behind the clear Best Actor winner but we will see.

[AniNate]

I don't see Jenkins getting much mileage; his role's not particularly demanding. Shannon is a possibility if they're willing to embrace just how much scenery chewing he does.

 

Brooklyn Prince is probably going to get some support for actress. I don't think she was quite Jacob Tremblay-level but the camera's going to love her when she starts promoting the movie.