Black Adam | October 21, 2022 | New Line | Don't worry, it's a hit. Dwayne Johnson says so!

[Maggie]

47 minutes ago, NamakFiskKa said:

Are people really thinking this movie will open closer to Shazam

There are a few that believe that. i don't understand their reasoning. Anyway, movie will be big

Edited October 1, 2022 by Maggie

[cax16]

1 hour ago, NamakFiskKa said:

Are people really thinking this movie will open closer to Shazam and less than the likes of Shang Chi and Black Widow on peak pandemic.

 

That would be downright awful for a Rock and big budget superhero movie.

WB is dumb for giving this movie that big of a budget then, it should of been in the same ball park as Shazam (100-110m) cause there’s absolutely no reason this should open much higher than Shazam. Black adam is an unknown character and DC movies don’t have the built in fan base marvel has. Sure the rock is more popular so that will help, but only so much.
 

Maybe if this movie is a big crowd pleaser it can “break out” a bit more but honestly if it did SC numbers opening weekend I’d be shocked. Hope I’m wrong though. 

Edited October 1, 2022 by cax16

[AnDr3s]

i'm feeling mid 70s

rock's is walkup heavy right?

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 hours ago, NamakFiskKa said:

Are people really thinking this movie will open closer to Shazam and less than the likes of Shang Chi and Black Widow on peak pandemic.

 

That would be downright awful for a Rock and big budget superhero movie.

The presales haven't exactly been huge so far, so opening around Shazam numbers seems totally plausible, especially if it doesn't get glowing reviews. 

 

I don't see why it would be a big surprise either, Shang-Chi got very good reviews and reception and the MCU has a bigger fanbase to give the movies a floor. 

Edited October 1, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[AnDr3s]

1 hour ago, cax16 said:

WB is dumb for giving this movie that big of a budget then, it should of been in the same ball park as Shazam (100-110m) cause there’s absolutely no reason this should open much higher than Shazam. Black adam is an unknown character and DC movies don’t have the built in fan base marvel has. Sure the rock is more popular so that will help, but only so much.
 

Maybe if this movie is a big crowd pleaser it can “break out” a bit more but honestly if it did SC numbers opening weekend I’d be shocked. Hope I’m wrong though. 

they expect much better OS numbers i guess

[cax16]

10 minutes ago, AnDr3s said:

they expect much better OS numbers i guess

I mean ya, it should do better in places like China but really who knows at this point, and even then you barely get any returns from China. 
 

We’ll see what happens, I’m definitely rooting for the movie and the rock but I have to be realistic as well. 

[jking123]

that would be disappointing 

[AnDr3s]

6 minutes ago, cax16 said:

I mean ya, it should do better in places like China but really who knows at this point, and even then you barely get any returns from China. 
 

We’ll see what happens, I’m definitely rooting for the movie and the rock but I have to be realistic as well. 

shazam did kinda bad everywhere except like latin america

it can do like 45%+ OS without china 326m

with china probably like 100%  450m

 

[cax16]

2 minutes ago, AnDr3s said:

shazam did kinda bad everywhere except like latin america

it can do like 45%+ OS without china 326m

with china probably like 100%  450m

 

Hope you’re right. 

[TheNextNolan22]

The budget for this is the biggest for a New Line project since the last Hobbit movie right? If it does something in the ballpark of Hercules and Jungle Cruise, that'd be concerning so a performance similar to Rampage would be the low end while closer to Jumanji 3/Hobbs & Shaw would be the high end. 

[efialtes76]

8 hours ago, cax16 said:

WB is dumb for giving this movie that big of a budget then, it should of been in the same ball park as Shazam (100-110m) cause there’s absolutely no reason this should open much higher than Shazam. Black adam is an unknown character and DC movies don’t have the built in fan base marvel has. Sure the rock is more popular so that will help, but only so much.
 

Maybe if this movie is a big crowd pleaser it can “break out” a bit more but honestly if it did SC numbers opening weekend I’d be shocked. Hope I’m wrong though. 

A BA movie for 100M-110M?

Of course...

 

[lorddemaxus]

The Black Adam theme is good new workout track. Should make a Lorne Balfe workout playlist at this point considering how much I'm listening to his scores.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

The theme song makes this movie look far more badass than it probably will be.

 

Anyway, count me in the "$50M opening at best" camp as well. There's very little hype for either the film or the DC brand as a whole. The only real hook here is The Rock, and even that can go either way. A lot of his movies have done middling numbers. There's the occasional Jumanji or Hobbs and Shaw, but he's not a consistent draw like Leo or Brad Pitt are.

 

And let's not forget that Wakanda Forever is opening just a couple of weeks after. If that movie delivers then it'll cripple Black Adam's staying power. It'll probably do around $400M worldwide in the end.

[cax16]

1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:

A BA movie for 100M-110M?

Of course...

 

If Shazam was made for 100m I feel like this shouldn’t of had a budget much higher then say 125m, I also believe the budget ballooned cause of delays etc. I’m rooting for it to well. We’ll see what happens. 

[Napoleon]

Shazam's low budget can be seen on screen, Black Adam looks much better in my opinion. And I think Black Adam will easily outgross Shazam unless it's really terrible - which I'm not betting on being the case because Jaume Collet Serra is a pretty good director. While hype is not where it was at the DCEU's prime, I still think Black Adam is generating considerable more interest than stuff like Birds Of Prey, THE Suicide Squad and Shazam. I also think this is coming at the right moment, after how divisive were Multiverse Of Madness and Love and Thunder, and with The Batman and Wakanda Forever being more on the darker side, I think audiences are starving for a well made popcorn comic book movie - assuming Black Adam is one.

[WittyUsername]

Making this movie as cheap as Shazam! would’ve been difficult, what with the inclusion of the Justice Society, and the general scope of the action that we’ve seen. 

[Jeight]

10 hours ago, Napoleon said:

Shazam's low budget can be seen on screen, Black Adam looks much better in my opinion. And I think Black Adam will easily outgross Shazam unless it's really terrible - which I'm not betting on being the case because Jaume Collet Serra is a pretty good director. While hype is not where it was at the DCEU's prime, I still think Black Adam is generating considerable more interest than stuff like Birds Of Prey, THE Suicide Squad and Shazam. I also think this is coming at the right moment, after how divisive were Multiverse Of Madness and Love and Thunder, and with The Batman and Wakanda Forever being more on the darker side, I think audiences are starving for a well made popcorn comic book movie - assuming Black Adam is one.

If mom was divisive with a 75% on rt then I guess the bar for the mcu is far higher than the dceu.  I wonder why no one calls aquaman divisive despite having a 65% on rt and worse scores than mom everywhere. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 hour ago, Jeight said:

If mom was divisive with a 75% on rt then I guess the bar for the mcu is far higher than the dceu.  I wonder why no one calls aquaman divisive despite having a 65% on rt and worse scores than mom everywhere. 

Fan expectations and marketing make a huge difference. Aquaman was what it said on the tin. Audiences got the exact movie that was advertised. Expectations were at rock bottom after Josstice League, so people were pleasantly surprised with the actual Aquaman movie, and it ultimately got to 1 billion through word of mouth.

 

Multiverse of Madness was advertised as basically a giga crossover event. Think No Way Home on steroids. Marvel made the (in my opinion) lethal mistake of putting Professor X in the later trailers, thus raising fan expectations immensely ("Damn, if Xavier is the one they felt good about revealing, then who knows what other crazy characters Marvel's hiding that are going to show up?"). The movie itself was ultimately a more personal Doctor Strange tale and not the cameofest fans expected. Audiences got a different movie than advertised, hence the B+ CinemaScore and the gigantic second weekend drop. It's the kind of movie you either love or loathe. It's naturally more polarizing than Aquaman.

 

I'll end it here before I go even more off-topic and get warned, but this is the gist of it.

[Saul Goodman]

Wow it doesn't even feel like it's releasing this month. Even Birds of Prey had more chatter surrounding it before release!

[excel1]

Reviews are going matter greatly for this. 80%+ on RT and this is a $75m+ opener, I bet.