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CJohn

Friday Numbers (The Vow: 15.4M; Safe House: 13.8M; Star Wars 3D: 8.7M; Journey 2: 6.6M)

By CJohn, in Numbers and Data

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jb007 Box Office Gold

jb007

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TPM downgraded yet AGAIN, this time to 23m for the weekend, and a likely #4 finish behind Journey 2 and probably a total of well below 50m."FANTASTIC!!!" shouts the internet community, supposedly full of "haters".

You are as thick as they come. It was not downgraded. It is Nikki adjusting for the upmteenth time that Nikki is known for doing every week. You act as if people went back and asked for refunds and that resulted in a lower gross. Her numbers from the beginning of the day were projections, It is not like the actual went down.. BTW a $12m OD would have been fantastic. A $8.5 Mi OD is good and is in line with most expectations.You are a troll without any common sense and argue with nothing but ridiculous assertions.
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DavidBrennan Box Office Gold

DavidBrennan

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You are as thick as they come. It was not downgraded. It is Nikki adjusting for the upmteenth time that Nikki is known for doing every week. You act as if people went back and asked for refunds and that resulted in a lower gross. Her numbers from the beginning of the day were projections, It is not like the actual went down.. BTW a $12m OD would have been fantastic. A $8.5 Mi OD is good and is in line with most expectations.You are a troll without any common sense and argue with nothing but ridiculous assertions.

Wait a sec.... Aren't you the dude who said it was going to hit $37m just a couple of hours ago? No wonder. I'd be bitter if I were as epically wrong as you were, too.And, like, we all kinda know the definition of "downgraded" and we also all kinda know that the continuously lowered estimates for TPM match the word's definition precisely. (As in, "Morningstar downgraded IBM stock from a 'Strong Buy' to a 'Buy'".)
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DAR Global Phenomenon

DAR

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Probably not much more than $50m, if that. Either way, Star Wars is one of the few franchises that can justify a larger budget by its merchandise opportunities. But I'd be shocked if this isn't profitable after $100m or so worldwide.

Isn't it already?
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forg Box Office Gold

forg

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Looks like this is the kind of week where we won't know what film tops the weekend until the actuals come in. I underestimated The Vow, I know it will do well but I was thinking around 25 mil OW but this impressive. In my country it did well on its opening day last night, sold out screenings!And wow at Safe House. Denzel Washington is a box office star indeed!

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DavidBrennan Box Office Gold

DavidBrennan

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Like any rerelease TPM TLK BATB Titanic likely, anything they make is just gravy so it is a tad ridiculous to consider them disappointments.

Totally disagree. There were tens of millions of production and marketing costs invested into this. "Investment" as in, "We hope this money is returned to us, plus more, later on." Though we don't know the exact costs of the TPM re-release, I expect that it was MANY tens of millions. (A $3.6m ad in the Super Bowl, for starters.)Yes, the TLK and BATB re-releases were special because they came right before BD releases and were considered promos for that, as well. But TPM is a stand-alone release. Sure, you can say it's a promo for the whole SW franchise, and I agree with that. But I don't think that LFL considers $40m a worthy investment, even still. But who knows? All their marketing data and expenses are private, so we probably won't ever know for sure. But I expect that this will alter the plans for future re-releases. If nothing else, the marketing will be MUCH cheaper for any subsequent releases.The Titanic re-release I believe will do great on its own, simply because that is a beloved movie. TPM is not. (In fact, TPM belongs in the class of Godzilla and Pearl Harbor for me, as one of the first generation, in the late-90's and early-00's, of truly hollow blockbusters: movies that made huge sums of money that nobody liked. Not "nobody" literally, but "nobody" relative to the hordes that traditionally loved blockbusters that made a billion dollars.)
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DavidBrennan Box Office Gold

DavidBrennan

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no way in hell ??? you've got some magic mirror ?

No, but my crystal ball has sure looked a lot better than everybody else's magic mirrors.But you're right that I'm just speculating. I mean, maybe Ewan MacGregor will die in a plane crash tomorrow and there'll be a Michael Jackson-esque posthumous commercial boom. Or maybe George Lucas will promise to personally host anybody who buys a dozen tickets for a tour of Skywalker Ranch. Or maybe everybody will wake up tomorrow and suddenly be enchanted by 3D again. Or maybe something else.But I personally think that < 40m is a safe forecast.
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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

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The dream of having three 30M+ openers is over. At least The Vow and Safe House are massive openers. It is a shame that TPM dropped so much from estimates. In other good news, it looks like Journey 2 will crack the 20M. Now it need legs like the 1st movie to pass the 100M :lol:

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